Osun 2026 Guber: Pressure mounts on President Tinubu over Adeleke’s return

With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) timetable for critical activities leading up to the Osun State governorship election in 2026 now released, the political atmosphere in the state is heating up. Aspirants have begun mapping out strategies to woo the electorate.

According to details from the INEC portal, nomination closes on February 9, 2026, while the final list of candidates will be released on March 9, 2026.

The man whose job is at stake, Governor Ademola Adeleke, is not leaving anything to chance. He has begun taking steps to secure a second term—an ambition that, under current circumstances, appears increasingly uncertain. Currently, there are two sets of local government chairmen in the state: one group backed by a court ruling for the APC, and another elected under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in October 2024.

Reports suggest that Governor Adeleke is also moving quickly to gain the favor of President Bola Tinubu, confident that he will face no opposition within the PDP for the party’s ticket.

Though it remains unclear whether he intends to defect to the APC, as some other PDP governors have done, sources indicate that Governor Adeleke has pledged total loyalty and support to President Tinubu during a series of meetings and consultations.

Lobby Train

Adeleke is not alone in lobbying for presidential support. Business Hallmark learned that several influential politicians and members of President Tinubu’s inner circle have been speaking on his behalf. His elder brother and business mogul, Dr. Deji Adeleke, has also reportedly been reaching out through his network of wealthy associates to build goodwill with the president.

Adeleke’s liberal disposition and his relationships across political and ethnic lines have worked in his favor. This has led many—including top APC figures—to regard him favorably. President Tinubu and his Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, are said to see him as “their harmless little brother.”

Speculation intensified weeks ago when Davido, the popular music star and nephew of the governor, visited President Tinubu at Aso Rock.

The climax of these lobbying efforts was a visit to President Tinubu in Lagos by Governor Adeleke, Dr. Deji Adeleke, and Davido. Photos of the visit circulated widely on both conventional and social media. This was followed by another high-profile meeting during the Eid-el-Kabir celebration.

It’s also believed that some allies of the Adelekes have been in touch with President Tinubu’s daughter, the Iyaloja General, Shade Tinubu-Ojo, who has close ties with Ede—Governor Adeleke’s hometown. Reports claim she attended the same secondary school in Ede as the governor.

These moves have unsettled APC members in Osun, many of whom had expected President Tinubu’s presidency would automatically favor their party in the state. Governor Adeleke’s spokesperson, Mr. Olawale Rasheed, has denied the rumors of defection, calling them baseless.

Political Dynamics

Political campaigns are expected to begin on March 11 and continue until the eve of the election, scheduled for August 8, 2026.

INEC’s schedule sets the window for party primaries between November 24 and December 15, 2025. Early reactions from individuals, political parties, and supporters suggest a highly competitive primary season, although Governor Adeleke currently has no visible challenger within the PDP.

Historically, Osun governorship contests have been dominated by the APC and PDP. However, a third force appears unlikely this time, given former governor and immediate past Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola’s recent declaration that his Omoluabi Progressives group will contest under a new, yet-to-be-named party and not align with any existing party.

Aregbesola’s statement ended months of speculation that his group might back Governor Adeleke again, as it did in 2022—an alliance believed to have tilted the election in Adeleke’s favor. That move earned Aregbesola the ire of both national and state-level APC stakeholders and widened his rift with President Tinubu. Since 2023, that relationship has not healed, and Aregbesola is now aligned with other politicians positioning against Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid.

APC’s Internal Problems

Within the APC, uncertainty remains over who will emerge as the party’s candidate for the 2026 election. Although former governor and current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola, is rumored to be a top contender, there are reports that he may step aside for a stronger candidate from the Osun West Senatorial District—Governor Adeleke’s home zone—in an effort to split the PDP’s support base.

The Adelekes’ recent meetings with President Tinubu have sparked unease within the Osun APC. Former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Hon. Timothy Owoeye, speaking for the APC, stated:

“The APC ticket is not for sale. As of today, we don’t see Adeleke as a member or part of the APC. Let me be sincere with you: the APC in Osun is the party to beat.

If not for the brigandage that followed the 2022 and 2023 elections, the PDP wouldn’t have had any elected officials. The Adelekes are panicking because they know their tenure ends in August 2026. We’re taking Osun back.”

Confusion Over Governor’s Intentions

Governor Adeleke’s spokesperson, Mallam Olawale Rasheed, has described all speculation about his principal defecting to the APC as “fake news.”

He insisted that the visits to the Presidency were routine and not what “jittery” APC members are imagining. “Governor Adeleke remains a bona fide member and leader of the Peoples Democratic Party in Osun State,” he said.

Despite the criticisms, Adeleke has continued to receive praise in some quarters for his performance. Over the past three months, several endorsements have emerged across the state.

The Osun State House of Assembly recently passed a unanimous vote of confidence in the governor, endorsing him for a second term. Party leaders and stakeholders from Osun West and Osun East Senatorial Districts have also endorsed his re-election bid.

Senator Oyewumi stated that the entire PDP in Osun views Governor Adeleke as a symbol of effective governance and that the wave of endorsements reflects his popularity and achievements.

Meanwhile, the APC’s Director of Publicity, Strategy, and Communication, Mogaji Kola Olabisi, maintained that no amount of “propaganda or antics” would secure Adeleke a second term.

According to him, “The Adelekes can rest assured that President Tinubu will not help them. The APC is actively mobilizing at the grassroots level and is prepared to reclaim Osun State in 2026.”