Nigeria’s 2026 growth hopes face oil, debt and tax tests

Nigeria’s economic recovery could gather momentum toward 2026, with growth approaching 4 per cent, but only if reforms are deepened and long-standing structural weaknesses are addressed, analysts warned on Monday at First Bank of Nigeria’s annual Economic Outlook forum in Lagos.

The event, themed “The Great Calibration: Mastering Resilience in an Era of Asynchronous Growth,” drew Nigeria’s financial elite to a packed hall at the bank’s headquarters, alongside more than 2,000 virtual participants.

Opening the forum, First Bank Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Olusegun Alebiosu, said resilience would determine which businesses survive Nigeria’s volatile operating environment. He described resilience as the “winning factor,” urging companies to invest in human capital and infrastructure to withstand uneven capital flows and shifting global conditions.

Keynote speaker Kale Yemi, Managing Director of Research and Trade Intelligence at the African Export-Import Bank, projected Nigeria’s growth could accelerate toward 4 per cent in 2026, supported by services-led diversification, a rebound in agriculture and improved foreign exchange management that reduced monthly FX volatility below 4 per cent in 2025. Inflation, he said, should ease into the mid-teens. However, Yemi cautioned that oil still indirectly drives over 60 per cent of economic activity, warning that crude prices below $60 per barrel could undermine fiscal stability, weaken the naira and stoke inflation. “Strengthen value chains, invest in technology and infrastructure, or remain trapped in extractive dependence,” he said, likening Nigeria’s vulnerability to Venezuela’s experience under sanctions and oil dependence.

The panel session, moderated by First Bank’s Head of Strategy and Corporate Development, Chike Uzoma, focused on how businesses can navigate conflicting signals such as moderating inflation alongside rising fiscal pressure. PwC’s Chief Economist, Olusegun Zaccheaus, cited the firm’s 2026 Outlook, which forecasts GDP growth of 4.49 per cent and inflation of 12.94 per cent. He identified food insecurity affecting 33 million Nigerians, oil price volatility, FX risks from global liquidity tightening, geopolitical tensions and a debt burden consuming about 50 per cent of government revenues as key threats. On the new tax reforms, he described them as a “double-edged sword” that could boost non-oil revenue but strain SMEs if enforcement is uneven.

Infrastructure and technology emerged as recurring themes. Transaharan CEO, Francis Anatogu, said Nigeria is gradually pivoting toward agro-processing and regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area, but warned that oil price shocks could derail logistics investments. Professor Bongo Adi of Lagos Business School described the tax reforms as “transformative yet contentious,” noting that poor implementation could alienate the informal sector, while weak technology adoption risks leaving Nigeria behind in the emerging AI-driven economy.

Other speakers highlighted the need for adaptability and risk management. Verraki’s Managing Partner, Niyi Yusuf, urged businesses to be “fast and accurate, consistent yet changeable,” while SBM Intelligence’s Cheta Nwanze warned that geopolitical shocks and oil price swings could quickly reverse recent gains. First Bank executives emphasised cash discipline, FX hedging and portfolio diversification as tools for resilience. Overall, participants agreed that 2026 represents a critical inflection point: reforms could lift growth above 4 per cent, but oil dependence, heavy debt and execution risks could just as easily cap Nigeria’s recovery.