Hunger: Experts warn FG’s grains import threatens local production, farmers’ livelihoods

The recent  decision by the federal government to give import licences for grains – ostensibly  to tackle  rising food prices and boost availability – has ignited  a storm of concerns among stakeholders in the agriculture sector, particularly, among local farmers over their future.

An analysis of the rationale behind the policy might seem economically sound in the short term, but its long-term implications could prove disastrous for Nigeria’s agricultural development, food security goals, and the fragile livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers already battling insecurity, climate change, and an unsupportive market environment.

Criticisms against the decision to grant import waiver for rice in order to boost availability of food to tackle growing restiveness of the population over high prices of foods and pervasive hunger in the country have been widespread.

But a former aide to ex-President Muhammadu Buhari, Bashir Ahmad, has  also defended the Federal Government’s controversial decision,  saying it is a necessary short-term measure to ease hunger in the face of economic hardship.

Ahmad made the statement on X (formerly Twitter) penultimate Sunday in response to criticism from one Dr. Yakubu Sani Wudil, a renewable energy expert and founder of Arewa Mentorship Forum, who faulted the government’s decision to waive import duties rather than support local farmers with subsidies and equipment.

Dr. Wudil wrote, “The FG wanted to crash the price of rice. Instead of subsidizing fertilizers, gasoline, and providing modern farm equipment for our farmers, they decided to offer import waivers, building other countries’ economies while our local farmers run at a loss.”

He followed up with several questions: “What happens when the imported rice is finished in the market? What happens to our local farmers, who lost their businesses? Is this helping the naira?”

Counting The Cost

In response, Ahmad acknowledged Wudil’s concerns, but offered what he called “a side of the story many are not aware of.”

“To be honest, I am with the Federal Government on this one,” he said. “Many of the interventions you rightly highlighted, such as fertilizers and farm equipment, were actually provided by the previous administration under the late President Buhari, particularly through initiatives like the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme. Billions of naira were allocated to farmers… but we all know what happened.”

According to Ahmad, funds were grossly misused by beneficiaries. “Some farmers received loans running into billions, some even up to ₦6 billion, but instead of investing in agriculture, many diverted the funds to other sectors like oil and gas, bureau de change, and other luxury ventures,” he said.

He added that even the farmers, who produced food hoarded their harvests to inflate prices, worsening food insecurity.

Ahmad also pointed to Buhari’s decision to close Nigeria’s land borders to food importation as another genuine effort to boost local production.

He said, “After ABP, the government went further by closing the borders to food importation, a move aimed at encouraging local production because the money to farm was allocated adequately. As someone, who was directly at the receiving end, I can confidently say that no single policy attracted more criticism for the late President Buhari than the border closure.

“Despite his honest and well-intentioned explanations, the policy was misunderstood and widely attacked—even when the signs of success were evident, rice importation dropped, and many Nigerians were pulled out of extreme poverty.

“The unfortunate truth is that the beneficiaries of the initiatives failed the government and the people. They didn’t help stabilize food prices. Instead, they formed cartels, manipulated supply and created artificial scarcity to make outrageous profits.”

Defending the Tinubu administration’s resort to waivers, Ahmad said: “Yes, food import waivers have consequences, and ideally, they shouldn’t be the go-to option. But given the betrayal of trust by key players in the local value chain, it has become the only immediate relief available to reduce hunger and suffering.”

He stressed that while the long-term solution lies in reviving and closely monitoring agricultural interventions, “for now, the people need to feed, first.”

Hunger Before Production

This view is supported by Dr. Monday Olorunyomi, an agronomist, who noted that “Tinubu’s waiver to import rice is the best for now given the pervasive hunger in the land. The farmers we are talking about have their own issues. Some of them are not patriotic. They hoard their produce to inflate price for exorbitant profit. What I will advise is that the waiver should be short time measures while the government works out long time solution.

“In this precarious  circumstances, the government’s grain importation policy feels like a final blow. Allowing cheaper imported grains to flood the Nigerian market means that whatever surplus produce our farmers manage to salvage and store is now worth far less. Grain merchants and buyers are opting for the cheaper foreign alternatives, further driving down the local prices of maize, sorghum, millet, and rice”, said Dr. Andrew Atteh, an agricultural economist.

He noted that  “A sack of maize that sold for ₦85,000 in early year now struggles to reach ₦33,000 in many markets. Meanwhile, the price of fertilizer has crossed ₦60,000 per 50kg bag in several states. How can a farmer break even, let alone make a profit, under such a condition?

“The psychological and financial disincentives created by this policy are pushing more farmers out of agriculture. Why should they go back to their farms when the expected returns cannot even cover the cost of land preparation, labour, and planting? What becomes of Nigeria’s food security when most farmers, discouraged and disillusioned, hang up their hoes and cutlasses for good?

He said  “The ripple effects of this policy are wider than many appreciate. First, rural employment is declining. Farming remains one of the largest employers of labour, directly and indirectly, across Nigeria’s value chains. As farming becomes less attractive or outright unsustainable, rural youth and labourers will migrate to urban areas in search of elusive white-collar jobs, increasing urban poverty, insecurity and over stretching urban infrastructure.

“One cannot also ignore the irony: successive Nigerian governments have paid lip service to diversifying the economy through agriculture, promoting backward integration, and encouraging local production. Yet, at the slightest sign of market strain, the knee-jerk response is throwing open the borders to imports—undermining everything farmers have been encouraged to build”, he stated.

Another expert  Ahmed Namadi told Business Hallmark that If the goal of the grain importation licence is to ease food inflation, then the policy must be reexamined through a broader lens.” The real cause of food price hikes in Nigeria is not simply supply shortfall, but a combination of insecurity, poor infrastructure, hoarding, market distortions, and high logistics costs. Importing grains might provide short-term relief, but it postpones the real solution and creates dependency that weakens local resilience”, he said.

But Innocent Nwite, proprietor of Sound Intellect Private School, who is also an agriculturalist, told this medium that “the importation is good for now given the pervasive hunger in the land, at least, it will make food available at a cheaper price while government considers long time measures of tackling holistic challenge in the agricultural value chain.

He called on  the government must to declare a national emergency on food insecurity.

A big holder farmer, Otunba Adeyemi Dejo, told Business Hallmark that government should immediately put a stoppage to the grains importation. In its place he called for the granting of  licenses for the importation of agro-inputs to make them available at affordable prices for the farmers.. “Simultaneously, the government should establish a guaranteed minimum price mechanism for key crops like maize, rice, and sorghum, to protect farmers from extreme price volatility and assure them of profitable returns.

Zayyad Muhammad an agronomist noted that  “Nigeria stands on the brink of a potential food crisis that could have devastating consequences for its economy, security, and social stability. If urgent and well-coordinated strategic measures are not implemented, the nation may soon find itself battling widespread food shortages, soaring prices, and heightened dependency on imports.”

Investigations by Business Hallmark revealed that worsening the situation is the declining market value of locally produced cereals. Many farmers now find that the cost of production outweighs the profits, largely due to unregulated importation of food items, which floods the market and undermines local efforts. This double blow is suffocating the morale of Nigeria’s farmers and threatening the sustainability of domestic food production.