Nigeria, Canada push data-driven investment for trade growth

Nigeria and Canada are seeking to strengthen bilateral trade and investment by improving data systems, with the Deputy High Commissioner of Canada in Nigeria, Carlos Rojas-Arbulú, saying Canadian investors need predictable policies, clear legislation and reliable data before committing capital.

Speaking at the Lagos Business School (LBS) Fireside Chat in Lagos, Rojas-Arbulú said Nigeria could attract significantly more Canadian investment, particularly in the mining and oil and gas sectors, if it addressed information gaps and created a more predictable investment environment.

The event, themed ‘Leading Africa’s Future: Business, Purpose and the Canada-Nigeria Partnership’, brought together business leaders, academics and policymakers to discuss ways of deepening economic ties between both countries.

Rojas-Arbulú noted that Canadian firms are weighing opportunities in Nigeria against competing destinations across Africa and other regions.

“Canadian companies are looking at Ghana, they’re looking at Mexico, they’re looking at Guatemala, South Africa and beyond. And they’re looking for environments where there’s predictability, there’s stability, there’s an investment framework that allows for clarity, legislation in place, and of course, the data”, the diplomat explained.

He stressed that reliable data remains central to investment decisions, noting that resource endowments alone no longer guarantee capital inflows.

“And I always come back to the data. Because you can say, and we say that in Canada as well, and I’ve seen it across the world, we have all of these resources, all of these proven resources and all of these projects. But when it comes to investing, it’s all about the data”, he said.

The diplomat observed that although Nigeria possesses vast mineral resources comparable to several African countries attracting significant Canadian mining investments, inadequate data and investment certainty have limited inflows.

He added that Canada had intensified engagement with Nigeria through multiple trade missions covering mining, renewable energy and agriculture.

According to him, Canada hosted one of its biggest business engagements in Nigeria last week, attracting about 220 participants and 31 Canadian companies.

“That gives you a sense of how important this relationship is from Canada. But the real measure of success is what happens next.

“Whether conversations become contracts, whether introductions become investments, and relationships become lasting partnerships”, he said.

Rojas-Arbulú said trust and ethical leadership would remain essential to converting business engagements into lasting commercial relationships.

“Trade does not happen only through policy. It happens through trust, through relationships, and through people deciding to take the next step together”, he said.

The Deputy High Commissioner also identified perception gaps as a major obstacle to stronger Nigeria-Canada economic relations, saying many Canadians have a limited understanding of Nigeria beyond international media reports.

“Many Canadians get their information on Nigeria from CNN. How do we work towards building a narrative where we tell those stories?

People don’t deny that there are stories about insecurity, but they can see a story of success, a story with 100 plus international companies investing in this country, employing, building, entrepreneurship and beyond. I think that is part of the gap to close”, he said.

He added that Canada wanted to see more efforts to showcase Nigeria’s investment opportunities and entrepreneurial success stories.

“How do we get the hardcore business, trade and investment, to tell that story to Canadians? And for Canadians to also invest time and effort to come and to see and discover those things”, he said.

Rojas-Arbulú said Canada was committed to expanding cooperation with Nigeria beyond trade by strengthening partnerships in education, innovation, entrepreneurship and responsible investment.

“We can deepen our educational partnerships, strengthen responsible trade and investment, connect our universities and entrepreneurs, and support women and young entrepreneurs whose ideas will shape the next generation”, he said.

He reaffirmed Canada’s commitment to closer ties with Nigeria. “Canada wants to be part of this story. We want to learn from Nigeria, innovate with Nigeria, invest with Nigeria and, above all, build with Nigeria”, he said.

Also speaking, a professor of Economics at LBS, Bongo Adi, said shifting global economic dynamics had created new opportunities for stronger Canada-Nigeria relations.

He explained that the global economy is moving away from traditional power structures, making partnerships with middle powers such as Canada increasingly important.

“We no longer have a unipolar world, neither do we have a bipolar world, where America and some other countries determine the futures of other countries”, Adi said.

He noted that changes in global value chains were compelling countries to reposition themselves economically.

“We are seeing the rise of middle powers, such as Canada. We are also seeing the disintegration of the old traditional economic relationship built over the colonial era. We are seeing the rise of China and the reshaping of global value chains”.

Adi added that Canada had demonstrated its readiness to forge stronger partnerships with countries like Nigeria.

“We see Canada taking charge. Canada is willing and ready to forge its own future, forging new relationships with the rest of the world. That’s one of the things we are seeing today”, he remarked.

Nigeria faces lubricant squeeze as imports tighten globally

Nigeria may face a lubricant supply squeeze in the coming months as tightening global base oil supplies and rising prices limit imports into West Africa, according to a report by global energy and commodity intelligence firm, Argus.

The report, based on insights from Argus’ Head of Base Oil Pricing, Gabriella Twinning, said lower availability of base oils and rising global prices linked to disruptions caused by the US-Iran conflict are reducing offers into the West African market despite the announcement of a peace deal.

It noted that West Africa remains heavily dependent on imported base oils, with average annual imports standing at about 135,752 tonnes over the past five years.

According to the report, the Dangote refinery expansion includes a base oil production unit, but the facility has yet to commence operations, leaving the region dependent on imports.

“Lower availability of base oils and rising global prices due to the continued disruption associated with the US-Iran war are curbing offers into the West African market despite a peace deal announcement”, Twinning stated.

On the region’s dependence on imports, Twinning said West Africa is a net importer of base oils, with average imports of around 135,752 tonnes annually over the past five years.

The report disclosed that the last major shipments arrived in March, warning that replacement cargoes are unlikely to be available from exporting countries throughout the summer.

“The last large shipments arrived in March, and replenishment cargoes look unavailable from exporting nations over the summer”, she stated.

Explaining the supply constraints, Twinning said, “Bulk European Group I volumes, usually used for engine, marine and industrial oil lubricants and greases, are unavailable following PK Orlen’s five-week maintenance shutdown and restart at the end of May.

“Bulk volumes out of the US are also limited as refiners service domestic demand and stockpile volumes for hurricane season. Crude changeovers at some Group I US refineries are also hampering output”.

The report noted that Nigerian buyers could switch to alternative grades where product formulations permit.

“Nigerian buyers could purchase Group II heavy grades as alternatives to Group I where formulations allow. These are more readily available outside Asia. However, Asian sellers are prioritizing higher prices from blenders in South America”, Twinning said.

She further stated that volumes from Russia had also declined as several refineries undergo repair works. According to her, higher spot prices are also discouraging purchases into the region.

“Rising spot prices to record highs in June since the start of the conflict will also make any cargo unattractive to West African buyers given the complicated payment process”, Twinning said.

Warning of the implications for the local market, she added that West African blenders would need to increase ex-tank prices and bid levels to compete with buyers in other regions.

“Demand is rising despite the rainy season, when transport and logistics typically slow. This is because no replenishment cargoes have arrived since March and tanks are running dry”, she noted.