Obidients and Igbo in Lagos

The ongoing realignment of Nigeria’s opposition ahead of the 2027 general elections has brought the Obidients and Mr. Peter Obi to a critical crossroads. The Movement’s current insistence on making Obi the sole presidential candidate within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) encapsulates deeper tensions about strategy, identity, and broader geo- political issues in Nigeria’s fragile multi-ethnic democratic terrain. 

If properly understood, this pushback could have consequences beyond mere electoral math and could potentially reshape southern coalition politics and influence inter-ethnic conflicts in places like Lagos, where Igbo and Yoruba political interests intersect and may clash.

What’s at Stake?

The Obidients is rooted in a broad reform agenda that rejects the patronage-driven politics of Nigeria’s mainstream parties. Originating around Peter Obi’s 2023 presidential campaign, the Movement drew significant youth, urban, and cross-regional support, advocating governance reform and inclusion. However, the surprised performance of Obi in that election has become intoxicating to them as solely determine the flag bearer of the coalition. This can only be very unreasonable.

Although the Obidients, which is an agglomeration of different strange bedfellows coalescing around Obi, officially welcomed the coalition and remain committed to democratic contestation in ADC primaries, some members have underscored the need for broad consultation, fairness in zoning and inclusivity, which they believe will enhance Obi’s chances of emerging the party’s candidate. However, wishes are not horses; even these ideal conditions for the primary may not translate into electoral victory. It reflects a tension between principle-driven allegiance and realpolitik that, sometimes, require compromise.

Practical Realities

From a strategic standpoint, insisting on Obi as the presidential nominee within ADC faces several practical hurdles. First, the ADC itself is a coalition of multiple political interests. Power brokers with deep networks and resources may resist being sidelined in favor of one individual, no matter how popular. This reality creates a classic coalition dilemma: unity versus autonomy.

Second, if the coalition perceives this push as prioritizing person over principles and strategy, the Obidients risk demobilizing grassroots support, and repeating the strategic mistakes of  2023. This could alienate voters who see ADC as just another political machine rather than a transformative platform.

Third, Obi is an Igbo and making him to run against a Yoruba political ‘god’ portends serious adverse ethno-politcal consequences for the Igbo, since their economy is predominantly concentrated in the Yoruba region, particularly Lagos. The 2023 election fallouts showed that the outlook is ominous.

Igbo-Yoruba in Lagos

Lagos remains Nigeria’s largest city, an economic powerhouse, where Igbo and Yoruba communities both have deep roots. Politically, Lagos is a battleground of identities and alliances. The Obidients drew considerable support in Lagos in 2023 by championing inclusive governance and countering political factionalism.

Moreover, Yoruba Obidients may feel sidelined if the Movement is perceived primarily as an Igbo-centred initiative or fails to articulate clear shared interests within ADC. That could reinforce pre-existing frustrations about equitable representation, and diminishing collaborative political engagement in Lagos.

While practical realities require negotiations and compromise, over-politicization of internal disagreements risks undermining the very unity essential to challenging the incumbent government. In multi-ethnic hubs like Lagos, where Yoruba and Igbo communities co-exist and compete politically, inclusive narratives will be crucial.

Perhaps, the most delicate implication of the Obi debate lies in its potential impact on Igbo–Yoruba relations in Lagos. The 2023 elections exposed how quickly political competition in the state can slide into ethnic suspicion and conflict. The Obidients, at its best, offered no alternative resolution mechanism.

If opposition debates are framed as ethnic contests, Lagos will revert to defensive politics. Yoruba Obidients, who supported Obi because he symbolized competence rather than identity may disengage. Igbo supporters, in turn, may feel besieged and retreat into ethnic solidarity. Both outcomes weaken the opposition and strengthen the status quo. It may also create a repeat of the 2023 scenario of a three horse race that denied them power.

The Igbo–Yoruba Question Lagos Cannot Avoid

Lagos has paid the price of ethnic polarisation before. It has no appetite for a repeat.

A Test of Political Maturity

The real question before the Obidient Movement in Lagos is not whether Peter Obi should aspire again. It is whether the Movement can evolve from an electoral insurgency into a mature political force.

Maturity, in Lagos politics, means understanding that how power is pursued matters as much as who pursues it. It means resisting the temptation to personalise collective struggles. And it means recognising that legitimacy in a diverse city is built through inclusion, not insistence.

Handled wisely, the ADC moment could consolidate opposition strength in Lagos and preserve the fragile Igbo–Yoruba political bridge forged in 2023. Mishandled, it could fracture the Movement, inflame identity politics and return the city to the comfort of familiar political monopolies.