Who Controls Osun Political Streets? By Comrade Ajanlekoko Fidipote

A frequent question in the minds of analysts, both locally and nationally, is: who controls Osun political streets? Who among the various parties holds the handles of the 30 local governments and the area council?

Several perspectives are popping up, from ill-informed postulations to outright propaganda, with a few write-ups already published. Beyond sponsored commentaries or agenda setting, answering the question in the first paragraph requires an analysis of recent events and incidents in Osun State.

Every state has its peculiarities in terms of what determines an electoral win. Certain segments and sectors of society tend to indicate who will win or lose, based on the state’s political history. Any genuine analyst can easily predict where the pendulum will swing by examining the body language or outright declarations of those determining groups.

Following the recent drama about defections, accusations, and counter-accusations, Osun politics witnessed four key events that are sufficient to reveal the current trends. This is not about conjecture or scenario building – the reality of these happenings deepens doubt about the capacity of the opposition to dethrone the incumbent come August 2026. Let us take those issues one after the other.

The first incident was the mass rally organized to welcome the governor when he returned from the United States of America. At Ajegunle and Igbonna markets, technicians and market operators trooped out and blocked the governor from proceeding to the Biket Secretariat of the PDP for the official reception. The forced stopover at both places was unplanned but an instant manifestation of affection for the governor.

With chants of “Imole” and other political songs, they reassured the governor of full support for a second term. The same Ajegunle area was where certain previous leaders were once stoned. The leader of the Ajegunle artisans publicly told the governor: “We are with you; our members spread across all local governments; 2026 is for Imole.”

At the reception venue, the place was fully packed with residents and supporters of the PDP from far and near. As though it was a declaration of a governorship ambition, enthusiastic residents trooped out to see and listen to the governor. That day was a clear demonstration of mass street credibility.

The second incident was the solidarity rally organised for the governor by public servants in Osun State. Politically, most governors who lost elections in Osun did so after losing the support of state public servants. In the case of Governor Adeleke, the recent rally was the third since 2022 when he assumed office.

The workers hailed the governor as the most pro-labour governor in Osun’s history. From the Secretariat gate to the Bola Ige House, the workers trekked in solidarity with the governor, singing and dancing. It is on record that the workers had earlier endorsed the governor for a second term during the 2025 May Day rally. That endorsement was repeated during the recent rally, with all branches of the state labour unions approving the governor’s performance and electability for a second term.

Aside from the foregoing, Osun farmers at their state secretariat openly endorsed the governor for a second term due to what they termed his incredible support for farmers in the state. Governor Adeleke was on hand to commission the secretariat of the All Farmers Association, which his administration completed after years of neglect under the previous APC administration. The event turned into a mass endorsement rally with farmers from across the state.

Leaders of the farmers’ group reeled out numerous accomplishments of the governor in the agricultural sector. They declared that the governor has demonstrated direct care and support for the agricultural transformation of Osun State. With several farmers’ groups singing and dancing, a motion was raised, seconded, and unanimously approved by the farmers, insisting that a second term for the governor would complete the ongoing positive growth and development of the agricultural sector.

If there is anything that demonstrated the strength of the incumbent in Osun State, it is the local government crisis. Reports indicated that the intention of those behind the seizure of funds was to turn the public against the incumbent. Instead, the response of critical sectors of Osun society has widened the governor’s support base and portrayed the APC as anti-people.

Evidence of this can be seen from the open position taken by the Osun State Council of Obas, which unequivocally backed the state government over the crisis. This was followed by endorsements from the Christian Association of Nigeria and the state’s League of Imams and Alfas. Labour unions, student bodies, and youth organisations have all openly supported the state government, with no single group backing the APC’s position.

Those who promised the president that they could win the state for him without Governor Adeleke are now scrambling for answers. Reports from Abuja now confirm that Adeleke truly has the hold on the people and that those making claims to control Osun are widely disliked by both the grassroots and the urban elites. Even some of those who defected to the APC failed to convince their immediate aides to follow them.

On the threats to rig the poll, Osun people are simply laughing it off because rigging out a very popular governor signals a direct threat to the democratic existence of the nation. From the First to the Second Republic, denying the people their rights to vote and be voted for has never ended well.

In any case, why must a group be so shameless and desperate as to think rigging is the only winning weapon? Is that democracy? What of stiff resistance from the people? And will the president allow his ancestral state to be turned into a blood-spilling camp?

In Osun politics today, the question of a third force is mere fantasy as the state PDP, despite recent defections, still retains its stronghold across the state. Neither the opposition APC nor the ADC, still struggling to find its feet, can stop the incumbent from getting re-elected.

● Comrade Ajanlekoko Fidipote writes from Gbongan, Osun State