Tussle for Lagos: Igbo, Yoruba face off signposts deeper troubles ahead

Jimi Agbaje and Sanwo-Olu, Lagos governor-elect

By OBINNA EZUGWU

For decades, Lagos State, Nigeria’s economic hub had stood like oasis in the country’s desert of pestilence. A country, which despite having great potential, has, on account of retrogressive politics, unhealthy ethnic rivalry and religious bigotry, achieved an inglorious feat of world’s poverty capital, Lagos had for long provided hope amid this hopelessness.

But the Lagos hope is gradually giving way to despair. Recent election skirmishes have exposed underlying fundamental issues that were originally conveniently ignored. Threat of tribal crisis is growing as poverty spreads and politicians manipulate ethnic sentiments.

For reasons of history and politics, Lagos had emerged as the country’s only true functional state; the only state with a thriving private sector and where jobs are relatively available and opportunities for entrepreneurship abound. But the state, on account of population explosion, dearth of opportunities and other attendant consequences, has come under stress.
The danger signs are all too visible. The growing rift between the Yoruba indigenous population and the Igbo, who represent the single largest non indigenous group in the state, if poorly managed, could have catastrophic consequences, not only for the state, but for the entire country and even beyond its shores.

For many decades, Lagos was Nigeria’s administrative capital. It profited heavily, infrastructure wise, as a result. And with the only functional sea ports in the entire country, it became a magnate for businesses. Lagos, by Nigerian or indeed African standards, prospered. But the only “prosperous” enclave in a country of nearly 200 million people, and by land mass, the smallest of 36 states, it was always an inevitability that Lagos would continue to come under increasing pressure.

Today, while Lagos remains the shining light of a country beset by many ills, danger is lurking: It has, perhaps by far more people that it can cater for; very few opportunities relative to the number in search of them. And while this number is growing, the opportunities are not – at least, not on the same progression, a cause for concern.

“Despondency among the people is growing. If you go into various local governments, for example my own local government, Lagos Island, the level of poverty, the hopelessness in the environment is unbearable,” said Bode George, former Deputy National Chairman Southwest of the opposition People’s Democratic Party.

George who spoke to Arise TV further noted: “You look at those able bodied men, there are no jobs; there is no skill acquisition; there is no future. And that’s just Lagos Island. If you move into the hinterland you wonder. We are building up kegs of gunpowder. When they explode we are in hell.”

George’s submission about captures the prevailing situation in Nigeria’s richest state. Public infrastructure, like everywhere else in Nigeria, is failing. Lack of opportunities has given rise to street urchins who are a government in their own right, collecting all manner of taxes and levies from the helpless populace. And like in all societies where there are dwindling economic opportunities, scape goats are being made of those who don’t belong to the established predominant ethnic group. In the case of Lagos, the impact is potentially dire.

Lagos was stripped of its status as capital territory in favour of Abuja officially in 1991. It is now one of six states that make up the South West geopolitical zone, a Yoruba zone. Although, it is a Yoruba state its’ history as former capital city, and its status as the country’s commercial hub means that Nigerians of other ethnic groups, also live in large numbers. Of this, the Igbo, one of the three largest ethnic groups – the others being the Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani – with the smaller ethnic groups of the South South zone, often classified, for political purposes, as Igbo, make up nearly half of the population.

Mostly traders and entrepreneurs, the Igbo are visibly successful as shop owners, owners of manufacturing concerns – even as they have made their marks in the corporate environment – and perhaps most critically, have bought a significant proportion of real estate.

While the Yoruba remain the most successful ethnic group in the country, with well-structured wealth running from generations, and are easily the undisputed doyen of Nigeria’s corporate enterprise, the Igbo who own visible businesses in various markets and across streets, are often erroneously perceived as perhaps the more successful group. There is the growing concern of them taking over Lagos, and occupying spaces that the Yoruba should occupy in that sense.

Careful watchers of Lagos socioeconomic evolution would have noticed that over the past few decades, there have been increasing attempts by the Yoruba to stamp authority; to make the point that Lagos remains a Yoruba state. This has come in form of policies such as compulsory Yoruba language for any Lagosian who wants to enroll in public schools. Lagos has largely become the new capital of the South West region as there is little, in comparative terms, going on in Ibadan, the traditional capital, in terms of commerce and politics.
As seen with the xenophobic attacks in South Africa, the far right anti-immigration movement in Europe and America, the stress of unemployment with its attendant poverty increases animosity towards non indigenous people. They are easily made the scapegoats, blamed for taking up opportunities that ought to be available to natives and such is often a precursor to crisis.

But the Lagos case is even more delicate; politics is a major contributor. Nigeria generally, is a country where politics looms large. Political office holders are some of the richest people around and many live off them. In Lagos particularly, politics is a whole industry with different layers of players-profiteers. Everything from recruitment into the civil service, to the provision of the least infrastructure, is tied to political patronage.

From CDAs, LCDAs, LGAs to such powerful political groups as Eko Circle, Like Minds, Justice Forum, Mandate, Ideal Group and so on, Lagos has developed highly effective political structures that operate on patronage-reward basis. These structures have helped to a large extent, in helping Bola Ahmed Tinubu retain his hold on the state politics. It is the mainstream political structure in the state. The argument by Tinubu’s followers to the effect that non indigenes cannot impose outsiders on Lagos largely derives here from.

Nonetheless, this is being threatened increasingly by the voting strength of the Igbo who as non-indigenes, are often not part of the said structures and for reasons of political affiliation, are always more inclined to vote candidates contrary to the mainstream political establishment in the state – but even more by internal cracks in the aforementioned structures.
The above has indeed, proven to be a major source of rift. And potentially, the proverbial final stroke that could break the camel’s back. Thus, in addition to other economic considerations, politics has become a major risk factor.

Over the course of the 2019 general elections, these issues came to the fore. The already potentially volatile relationship between the Igbo and Yoruba strained to nearly crisis point, a slightly worse replication of similar experience in the 2015 election, and perhaps it may only be a matter of time before tensions boil over.
During the February 23 presidential and national assembly elections, thugs apparently loyal to the All Progressives Congress (APC) invaded polling units in Surulere, Okota, Oshodi and other areas of Lagos where people of Igbo stock live in large numbers, destroying ballot papers and burning ballot boxes.

Their reason: that the Igbo cannot decide for the Yoruba who occupies what electoral position in their own land by voting candidates contrary to those they support. The intimidation was not pronounced in the subsequent gubernatorial election last Saturday, but Tinubu wife, Senator Remi made headlines for telling a physically challenged Igbo man that “You Igbo people, we no trust una again.”

APC, the country’s ruling party remains the dominant political party in the South West and particularly Lagos, the home state of its ‘national leader’, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. A former governor of the state, Tinubu is nursing presidential ambition for 2023. He maintains political control – albeit waning – of Lagos from where he expands foothold to the rest of the South West.

But the Igbo – and other minority ethnic nationalities of the South South – with a sizable proportion of the voting population in Lagos are proving a big threat to the APC and Tinubu in the state. They are mostly leaning towards the country’s main opposition party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) which is the dominant party in both the South East and South South geopolitical zones.

“It is in Tinubu’s interest to suppress the Igbo vote if he must maintain his vice-like grip over Lagos. But my take is that he bears no personal grudge against the Igbos resident in the state and recognises their usefulness and contributions in making it Nigeria’s economic hub,” wrote ThisDay columnist Ijeoma Nwogwugwu.

“The major snag, however, is that they pose a stumbling block to his desire to hold on to Lagos. Without it, he can kiss his presidential bid in 2023 goodbye. Without it, he will not be able to fend off the federal might using a section of the Lagos media and civil society groups that he funds and controls. Without it, he is finished!”

The thugs had maintained that they were certain that the Igbo and other non Yoruba Lagosians in the said locations, were not going to vote for the APC in the elections, and therefore, they could not be allowed to vote. They made sure that as much as possible Igbo votes were reduced by burning ballot boxes and papers as well as preventing others from voting altogether.

The action was of course, unconstitutional and indeed, criminal. But in a country where ethnicity is still the predominant sentiment, what was ordinarily a case of criminality quickly took a dangerous ethnic coloration. Intense online ethnic war between the two groups subsequently ensued, signalling deep and already simmering tensions.

“We operate mostly in the context of tribe and ethnicity. If he is my kinsman or kinswoman, then the issue is no longer whether he or she is right or wrong. Those are the realities that shape our thoughts. And it has a bandwagon effect. It is the way we have been socialised; how we have been trained to reason, noted Professor Abigail Ogwezzy-Ndisika, Head of Mass Communication Department, University of Lagos.

“So long as we continue to allow ethnic and religious biases to shape our thoughts and our actions, we will never get it right. What should be the major consideration for any voter now should be peace and development, access to healthcare. You can’t use ethnicity to pay your child’s school fees. You can use it to cure anyone in the hospital or to fix electricity. So, competence should matter to us more; and of course, peace and development.”

Certainly, for Lagos and Nigeria at large to make any meaningful progress, such issues as competent and capacity should rank high in consideration for leadership selection. But the situation presently is that what matters most to a hungry mouth is food. And the politicians who are able to provide this food are also able to exert control and manipulate the narrative to suite their political interests.

The average thug thinks not in the long term, but how to put food on the table in the present. And when thuggery is turned into a financially rewarding industry, the society is further endangered.

The leader of the said thugs who went to disrupt voting had been pelted with stones by the angry voters. Pictures of him lying in the pool of his own blood quickly circulated on social media. And although he was later treated at a hospital, some internet warriors had begun to call for war. The entire narrative was quickly changed to the Igbo attacking the Yoruba in Lagos.

“Every interaction I have had with our OPC over the past two hours has been unsettling and unpleasant,” wrote Adeyinka Grandson, a certain UK based Yoruba nationalist notorious for inciting ethnic hatred. “In two different areas, no less than three Yoruba have been killed in Igbo dominated areas of Lagos State by Igbo immigrants.”

The said Grandson who craftily chose words specifically targeted at inciting crisis subsequently wrote: “The Igbo are bragging about the three Yoruba killed in Igbo dominated area of Lagos State.”

Of course nobody was killed. And the only one individual who was injured was the leader of the group snatching and destroying ballot boxes and papers. But it mattered little. The thugs were quickly presented by some as ethnic heroes and the Igbo as villains.

The following Monday, thugs, allegedly led by MC Oluomo, leader of “agberos” in Oshodi and its environs, invaded the area, destroying shops belonging to the Igbo and prevented them from opening for business. Escalation was in the offing. Nonetheless, tension was subsequently doused after a consultation between leaders of the Igbo community in the area and some APC stakeholders, including the said MC Oluomo.

“Of course, going to disrupt voting is an electoral offense. It’s a straightforward matter,” said Mr. Ebere Anthony, lawyer and analyst. “But when a case that is as straightforward as that is twisted and given ethnic coloration, you know that there are obviously some underlying issues.

“I have seen some campaigns calling on the Igbo to leave Lagos. Some have even changed the narrative to the Igbo calling Lagos no man’s land. You also hear people bragging about how they will take over properties of Igbo people and how the Igbo are land grabbers. So, yes, when you look at some of these, you will realise that some of the underlying reasons are economic, but of course it is also ethnic.”

Lagos had emerged as a prime beneficiary of one of Nigeria’s many absurdities. The vindictive post civil war policies of successive military governments in the country had ensured that while there are seaports in five of six states that make up the present day South South zone: Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom, none is functional.

These states, apart from Delta, were in the old Eastern Region that attempted to secede from Nigeria in 1967. An attempt that triggered a civil war that lasted till 1970. And although the war ended with a no victor, no vanquished verdict, political and economic wars have continued, with disastrous consequences for everyone.

Lagos having the only functional ports in a country with such massive population and equally large land mass, had made sure that it thrived while other potentially viable economic hubs were shut out. But the chicken is gradually coming home to roost. It has continued to witness rapid population growth, much more than it can really support.

The ports have become congested. Life has become a daily struggle. Recent report by rated the state the third worst city to live in globally. While lack of opportunities elsewhere continues to lure more and more people into the state, many of those already resident are finding life increasingly difficult.

Nigeria had also made the unfortunate decision to favour control over development and economic prosperity. While the country is sure to excel by harnessing economic potential available in every part of the country by allowing a measure of economic and political independence as is the case in most democracies, successive civilian governments, still determined to maintain control, have continued to turn a blind eye.

The lesson of history is that you cannot maintain control if you do not create prosperity. Events in the North East where Boko Haram terrorist group has continued to kill people unabated, creating some of the world’s emergency challenges, as well as North West and North Central where bandits and herdsmen are now rivaling Boko Haram in terms of those killed daily, are all evidence of a failing state.

Strangely, while all these are happening, the President Muhammadu Buhari government particularly, continues to resist things as basic as state police, perhaps fearing it might lose grip if certain states or regions are allowed to own and equip a police force. But it continues to lose control, regardless, as armed groups continue to harvest blood in various parts of the country while the obviously overstretched security agencies look on overwhelmed.

But the day of reckoning is, more than ever before, nigh. The events in Lagos are a signal that even the country’s centre of prosperity is under duress. Creative and total makeover of the federation is urgently needed.

Unfortunately, it would seem that the APC government has neither the political will nor the intellectual heft to initiate and see through necessary reforms. For now, the government is more interested in capturing power more than it is in even tackling escalating insecurity. Nigeria is truly a country on a keg of gunpowder.