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So where do we go from here?
President Buhari
Impact of Buhari’s re-election on the future of the polity
By YUSUF MOHAMMED
With the declaration of incumbent President MuhammaduBuhari, the flagbearer of the All Progressives Congress, APC as President-elect in the 2019 polls by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC last Tuesday, the focus of attention has now shifted to what this stated victory portends for the nation going forward.
On the political front, top on the list of concerns is the fact that Buhari’s main challenger and presidential candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has already signalled his intention to contest the verdict in court.
Speaking at a World Press Conference after the polls outcome was announced, Atiku lamented that the 2019 polls was in his estimation, the worst ever that had been conducted in the country. He cited several gross violations as recorded by his team and announced that he would be formally contesting the outcome in court.
Concerned about the potential outcome of continuing disputations over the polls outcome on the overall health of the nation, several commentators have been trying to persuade Atiku to take things easy, with some even going further to urge that he discontinue the legal challenge of the polls outcome.
One such group that has weighed in to speak to the former Vice President and the victorious side also is the National Peace Committee that is headed by former military head of state, General Abdulsalami Abubakar. In separate meetings with the parties, the Committee urged the two sides to continue to be guided by the national interest while working through their disagreements.
Related to the Atiku challenge is the expected toll or impetus that the stated defeat could have on the opposition PDP. For many within the former ruling party, winning the polls this time around was a task that had to be done. For a party that may now have to wait some more before the chance of returning to office beckons again, the question that immediately arises would be to find out if it has enough fuel to last the waiting period.
Ancillary to this would be the critical ground lost by the party in the current elections as communicated by the declared voting outcome. From the results, the ruling APC has been able to secure a toehold of sorts in parts of the South East and South South that had been a near impossibility in the past. In this wise also, is the fact that the PDP posted what its pundits would agree to be less than satisfactory results from the North Central, with that of Kwara standing out as a real sore thumb. Also distressing for it would be results from the North West, and particularly Kano State, where it had banked on the Kwankwasiya factor to give it a solid berth in the area.
On the other hand, it is also to be noted that despite its being the declared winner of the polls, the potential impact of the victory on the ruling APC is in itself not overly comforting. Though the prime beneficiary of the moment, many polity watchers know that at the end of the day, the impact of the victory on the ruling APCmay really not be altogether positive.
For context here, we need to go into the history of the formation of the current ruling party and its continuing inability to fully manage its fissiparous tendencies. Here it would be recalled that following the conclusion of the 2015 polls and the announcement of the party as winner of the presidential polls, a combination of its Northern and Congress for Political Change, CPC wings took charge of the commanding heights of government in an almost exclusivist manner and for large swathes of the administration’s first term time, literally shut out the bulk of its coalition elements from the South Western and Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN blocs with which it had jointly put together the party and prosecuted that Pyrrhic victory. Indeed, it took the run-down to the second term bid for matters to ease a bit and for some accommodation of sorts to be provided for the estranged blocs.
Signs of the fact that hostilities may yet resume within the contending blocs in the ensuing days showed up at intervals even in the past few weeks with two of them being most notable. One was the reported ‘grumbling’ from the North over the ‘stoning’ of President Buhari at the presidential rally in Abeokuta. And in the aftermath of the APC’s ‘less-than-satisfactory’ performance in the presidential elections in the South West, angry reactions have also erupted from the north with one aide of the Kano State Governor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, SalihuTankoYakassai describing the South West as ‘ungrateful.’
‘After the reggae, play the blues’
Victory in the kitty, the discussions within the APC now are shifting to who gets what. And to underscore the fact that he may be more aware of this imperative now, much more than has been the case in the past, President Buhari has already pledged openly to run a more inclusive government this time around. But not taking chances, the Tinubu camp may have already begun to signpost that it would press for its own share of the post-victory spoils through an early indication that the wife of the National Leader, that she would be asking for the position of Deputy Senate President. Pray, who really is making the call? And then it also has to be factored in that Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila is yet in contention for the Speaker of the House of Representatives position.
There is also the issue of how the political egos of big-time losers like Senator GodswillAkpabio who lost his bid to return to the red chamber and presumably stand for election as Senate President would be managed. Add to this the need to continue to keep the likes of RotimiAmaechi in top reckoning as a continuing buffer for Governor NyesomWike and the PDP in Rivers State.
And then there is APC National Chairman, AdamsOshiomhole, who after delivering his party to power would most expectedly be asking for a higher perch in the new administration. How would this be managed?
And the next elections
The gubernatorial and house of assembly elections that follow this Saturday are also a critical factor in the overall process. Winning the votes in the contest would be an equally valuable bargaining chip and this explains why the likes of Bola Tinubu are on their feet in a last-minute push to ensure that the party’s candidates win in the forthcoming polls.
Policies
So what would the new government be doing when it finally settles down to work? What would its policies be? Beyond the mantra words: security, corruption and agriculture, what enduring planks would the administration put in place to build the great nation that we are intent on having? If what we have already seen this far, the answer clearly, is blowing in the wind. And from all we can see at the moment, it is not palatable to say the least.