President Buhari leaves behind a divided, broken and battered nation

By OBINNA EZUGWU

Comedy skit-making has become a big part of Nigeria’s creative industry. Rated the world’s happiest people by the World Values Survey in 2003, Nigerians are noted for their resilience, and have always found ways to make light of bad situations.

And as President Muhammadu Buhari leaves office today, after eight years of presiding over a far more divided country with highest inflation in its recent history, unprecedented unemployment rate, widespread insecurity, and finally, a flawed election, many have decided to, in rather ligh-thearted manner, award themselves ‘Survivor Certificate,’ that reads, “The bearer of this certificate is hereby proclaimed as a survivor of the Muhammadu Buhari led administration, from May 2015 to May 2023, in the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

The certificate is being widely circulated on social media, as many users praise themselves for surviving what they say is eight years of suffering and pain. In another clime, the situation could have been very different.

Popular uprising over fraudulent elections and poor economic outcomes have provided ‘justifications’ for military ouster of civilian governments in Sudan, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and elsewhere on the continent. But such uprising is nearly impossible in Nigeria, a country of diverse ethnic and religious divides with no shared national vision.

The closest it ever got to an uprising was the EndSARS protest of 2020, but it was quickly crushed. These days, everyone vents on social media, mostly Twitter, where supporters and opponents of the regime exchange toxic words unending.

New findings show that Nigerians are no longer as happy. A March 2023 World Happiness Report ranked the country 95th happiest nation in the world, out of the 137 surveyed, with 4.981 points, and the reasons are not farfetched.

Nigeria, today, is a country battling multiple security, economic and social challenges, with fault lines heightened under Buhari who many say, took nepotism to unprecedented levels. Despite proclaiming that he was for nobody and for everybody in his inaugural speech, Buhari would travel to the UK days later to argue that constituencies that gave him 5% should not expect to be treated the same as those who gave him 97 percent.

His appointments to key sectors reflected this mindset, with the Southeast, and to a lesser extent, the South South geopolitical zones visibly neglected. As he steps aside to pave the way for the Bola Tinubu era, many look back with regret about what could have been, and with disappointment about what has become.

“My cousin said something to me yesterday after he shared a presentation with me by Bode Agusto to asset managers,” noted Victor Asemota, @asemota, a popular tech entrepreneur and political commentator.

“He said that even if Tinubu is the best President Nigeria has ever had, damage done by the Buhari regime will take 10 years to unravel. The macro issues are massive.

“A country with plenty of intelligent people just allowed clowns to screw up our future in the name of tribe and religion. This is beyond sad. Japa is only just starting.”

Japa, a Yoruba locution, which means to leave for greener pastures, has become the byword in social discuss; the ultimate dream of many young people. Tens of thousands have left, many more are leaving. A 2021 Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey, a publication of Africa Polling Institute (API), revealed that 7 in 10 Nigerians (73 per cent) would relocate abroad with family members if they had an opportunity.

The figure represented a whopping 41 percentage point increase from citizens, who were hoping to emigrate in 2019, when only about a third of citizens (32 per cent) said they were willing to relocate with their families out of Nigeria. And the increase, is easily down to the continued loss of hope in the country under the Buhari government.

Indeed, as at 2021, according to the report, only about 26 per cent said they had “a lot of trust and some trust” in President Buhari as against 42 per cent in 2019.

But many, who queued behind Buhari in 2015, the year he defeated the then incumbent Goodluck Jonathan to become president; a historic feat on many accounts, expected a different outcome – a new Nigeria. The Katsina born former military head of state had promised change; a departure from the Jonathan era, which was widely believed to be riddled with corruption.

Buhari had run a successful campaign on the three major planks of fighting corruption, tackling insecurity, and growing the economy. However, as he leaves office today, many look back to the Jonathan era with nostalgia. It was a time when a bag of rice sold for less than N6,000, as opposed to N35,000 today; dollar exchanged for N200 in the open market, as opposed to N770 today; inflation was 9 percent, as opposed to 22 percent today, and insecurity was largely a Northeast affair, but a nationwide menace today.

“I served under the then President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration and we all saw how Nigeria flourished under that administration. We all knew what the prices of foods and services were at the time,” noted Samuel Ortom, a staunch Buhari critic, who is leaving office as Benue State governor today. “We also know what our exchange rate was at the time and what it is today. I want Nigerians to do a simple comparison and you will realise how bad it has been under this government and how Nigeria has been taken several years backward by the Buhari government.

“The fact is that never in the history of Nigeria did we experience this kind of bad governance in the country. The President recently apologised to Nigerians; we accept the apology but he must be told that he failed woefully and Nigerians are feeling the impact of that failure because we are all suffering.”

Buhari and his supporters, however, see things differently. Speaking at the weekend, the outgoing president declared that he was leaving the country better than he met it.

Equally speaking on Friday during the inauguration of 3,000 capacity Ultra-Modern Custodial Centre at Janguza in Kano, the outgoing governor of the state, Abdullahi Ganduje, declared that the now former president was leaving the country better than he met it.

According to him, “Indeed, this is what Buhari promised Nigeria and the people of Kano to deliver dividends of democracy.”

Also last week, Mrs. Aisha Hanan, the president’s daughter hailed him as “the silent achiever.”

But facts suggest otherwise. A look at the president’s performance in the key areas of insecurity, anti corruption and promotion of democracy and rule of law, indicate that the country is worse off than it was in 2015 when he took over, even if a number of gains have been made in certain aspects.

Insecurity:

Despite spending N14 trillion on insecurity in eight years, the country, by many accounts, is more insecure now than it was prior.

The Goodluck Jonathan years were the peak period of Boko Haram terrorism in the country’s Northeast region. Attacks by the Abubakar Shekau led group led to the killing of thousands. The carnage reached a crescendo in 2014, the year the terrorists kidnapped 276 secondary school girls in Chibok Borno State, the epicentre of the group’s activities. That year, a total of 32,658 people were killed, compared to 18,111 in 2013, according to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2015.

Buhari’s campaign was helped in no small amount by this reality. A former general, he promised to tackle the problem by leading from the front, and won many over. He became president on May 29, 2015, and faced the war against the terror group as promised.

Today, he is credited with reducing the terror group’s attacks considerable, which is a huge plus. Boko Haram is no longer the dreaded force it was, but part of this is due to the emergence of a breakaway faction of the group, the Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP). ISWAP fighters, which opposed the wanton killings and destruction of lives favoured by Boko Haram, waged its own war against Shekau and his men, eventually eliminating him and several of his fighters. Till the present day, battle between the two factions have continued to rage, which has helped in no small measure to deplete their ranks.

Regardless, not much can be taken away from the effort of the country’s armed forces under Buhari. The depletion of the terror group is equally, for the most part, due to the improved logistics supply to the fighting men and women, and perhaps better fighting strategies.

However, while the Buhari administration made noticeable progress in the battle against Boko Haram, insecurity has spread to other parts of the country, most prominently in the North West and North Central, where bandits and Fulani herders are wreaking havoc; as well as the South East, where separatist agitation has turned violent. Indeed, the activities of herders have created a sense of insecurity across the country, with attacks recorded in every region.

Earlier this month, a report from the Nigeria Security Tracker, a project of the Council on Foreign Relations’ Africa programme, disclosed that over 63,111 people were killed in eight years under Buhari, with the deaths rising from terrorism, banditry, herders/farmers clashes, communal crises, cult clashes, and extra-judicial killings, among others.

Since the NST started the data on May 29, 2011, when former President Jonathan was inaugurated, the report said, no fewer than 98,083 Nigerians had been killed.

According to it, when President Buhari assumed office on May 29, 2015, the cumulative number of people killed in Nigeria, according to the NST was 34,972. Since then, the death figure has risen to 98,083 as of May 16, 2023. Yet analysts insist that the number is likely higher.

“Buhari tried, but he has failed,” declared Mr. Onyekachi Adekoya, Managing Director of PR24 Nigeria, a security and risk management firm, and Fellow Nigerian Institute of Industrial Security. “If you look at the over 63, 000 deaths recorded during the Buhari administration, it’s clear that the figure is under reported. The Nigerian Security Tracker doesn’t have the facilities to gather all the data.”

According Adekoya, who spoke on Arise TV on Friday, “The security and welfare of the people is the primary responsibility of the government. In terms of how widely dispersed the issue of insecurity is, we cannot give this government a pass mark.”

Similarly, a former Assistant Inspector General Of Police, Felix Ogbaudu, remarked that, “the administration of Buhari failed in its primary responsibility of protecting lives and property of Nigerians.”

Corruption:

Coming into power, Buhari prided himself as an anti corruption czar, who would rid the country of the menace. But eight years down the road, the menace has grown wings.

Nigeria had ranked 136th out of 168 countries in the 2015 Transparency International Corruption Perception Index. In 2022, it ranked 150th, which was an improvement from its 154th position out of 180 countries assessed in the 2021.

Analysts feel he hasn’t delivered on his promise of fighting corruption. While the government had ensured the repatriation of funds stashed overseas by General Sani Abacha, among others, the usage of such funds have remained opaque, with many believing that they’ve been mostly re-looted through nebulous social investment programmes.

The award of suspicious contracts in the twilight of the administration has also raised eyebrows, and further dented Buhari’s anti corruption credential.

Though the EFCC under Buhari said it secured 8,871 convictions in eight years, it hasn’t helped his anti-corruption record, as several public office holders, who have cases at the EFCC, saw their trials being discontinued or paused the moment they defect to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Democracy and Rule Of law:

On his campaign trail, Buhari had proclaimed himself a reformed democrat who was ready to play by the rules. But an invasion of homes, and arrest of ‘unfriendly’ judges in Rivers, Abuja and Gombe, barely a year into his administration in 2016, by the DSS, gave him out as military man in civilian regalia. This would be followed by flagrant disregard of court judgments.

The secret police also invaded the National Assembly in 2018, what many saw as an assault on the then Bukola Saraki led legislature.

The administration, however, made positive contributions to the growth of democracy, such as signing the 2022 Electoral Act, a document that gave many hope leading up to the 2023 general elections.

But such hopes turned to despair during the elections, as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) violated its on procedures and disregarded key aspects of the Act.

The conduct of the general election has further divided the nation, and exacerbated the country’s fault lines. Buhari is leaving behind a country maintaining peace of the graveyard, leaving the succeeding regime with the onerous task of healing a broken nation reeling from economic and psychological trauma.