Nigeria’s oil output rises to 454m barrels in nine months, still below target

Nigeria produced a total of 454.28 million barrels of crude oil and condensates between January and September 2025, according to new data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The report showed that crude oil accounted for 399.81 million barrels, while condensates contributed 54.47 million barrels, representing about 12 per cent of total liquid hydrocarbons. This translates to an average daily production of 1.66 million barrels per day (mbpd), comprising 1.46 mbpd of crude and 0.20 mbpd of condensates.

Despite the improvement, the output still fell short of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd, which the country only met in January, June, and July.

Production fluctuated throughout the period, peaking in January at 53.86 million barrels before dropping to its lowest level in February at 46.81 million barrels. It stabilised between March and July but declined again in September to 41.69 million barrels, a drop attributed by the NUPRC to industrial actions by labour unions during disputes with the Dangote Refinery, as well as maintenance downtime.

According to the report, national production was sustained by major terminals, led by Forcados Terminal with 67.1 million barrels, followed by Bonny Terminal (60.54 million), Qua Iboe (40.66 million), and Escravos (37.36 million). Brass Terminal contributed 9.12 million barrels, while other streams such as Odudu, Tulja–Okweibome, Okoro, and Antan added modest but steady volumes.

Deepwater fields remained the backbone of national output. Bonga Field, operated by Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company, led with 32.89 million barrels, followed by Erha Field (ExxonMobil) with 18.93 million barrels and Egina Field (TotalEnergies) with 17.84 million barrels.

Condensate output reached 54.47 million barrels, driven largely by Agbami Field (Chevron) with 21.78 million barrels and Akpo Field (TotalEnergies) with 14.38 million barrels. Tulja–Okweibome Condensate averaged about 280,000 barrels per month during the period.

Industry experts say sustaining production above 1.6 mbpd will depend on stronger pipeline security, timely field redevelopment, and full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) reforms.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), in a July update, reported progress in restoring crude evacuation infrastructure, revealing that five major pipelines – including the Trans-Niger, Oando Brass, Trans-Forcados, Trans-Escravos, and Trans-Ramos Pipelines – achieved 100 per cent operational availability between May and June 2025.

However, NNPCL Group CEO, Bayo Ojulari, admitted that national output still lags behind the government’s target of 2.02 million barrels per day as projected in the 2025 budget, despite recent improvements in security and infrastructure uptime.