Nigeria’s Nightmare!

OBINNA EZUGWU

There is hardly a way one looks at it, and Nigeria doesn’t seem like a country headed for catastrophe.

As renowned economist, Professor Pat Utomi noted recently, “Nigeria is a classic example of a country that is walking towards failure; the society fails largely because people like you have not done the needful to sustain the country.”

The signs are ominous. A United Nations (UN) population estimate released a fortnight ago, said the country is set to overtake the United States in population by 2050. The US currently has a total population of 325.1 million people making it the third most populous country in the world. This implies that by 2050, Nigeria’s population would be over and above this number. Yet, at approximately 180 million people, signs of distress are common place, and resources are dwindling. Oil, the country’s main source of revenue is fast losing value, and there are not much viable alternatives.

With a growing mass of unemployed youths, frustration is rife, crime and criminality is on the increase. But most prominently, ethnic tensions has been escalating. Over the past few weeks, Nigeria has continued to witness ethnic tensions stretching its fragile peace and unity to almost a breaking point. For many, it is no longer a question of if, but when a crisis will erupt, except the government of the day takes proactive actions with regards to addressing the structural issues that breed such animosity. This is unlikely.

Pro Biafra agitation in the East, spearheaded by Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, leader of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) has reached the point of no return. Kanu has been vocal in criticising the Nigerian state and its government, calling the country a zoo.

Citing his agitation as an excuse, a group of Northern youths under the auspices of Arewa Youths Consultative Forum (AYCF) recently issued quit notice to Ndigbo living in the 19 states of Northern Nigeria, in what they called ‘Kaduna Declaration.’

“With the effective date of this declaration, which is today, Tuesday, June 6, 2017, all Igbo currently residing in any part of northern Nigeria are, hereby, served notice to relocate within three months and all northerners residing in the South-East are advised likewise,” the AYCF officials led by its National President, Yerima Shettima, said at a press conference in Kaduna.

“All northern civil societies and pressure groups are, by this declaration, mandated to mobilize for sustained, coordinated campaigns at their respective state Government Houses, state Houses of Assembly, local government council secretariats and traditional palaces.”

This notice has continued to draw condemnations across the country. Although the both the Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai and the Inspector General of Police, Ibrahim Idris  demanded for the arrest of the signatories to the declaration, no individual was arrested and to further prove a point, the youths wrote a follow up letter to Osibanjo asking him to conduct a referendum to allow the Igbo to leave the country.

Nigerians say there are more to the notice than meets the eye.

“I am very much worried about what is happening,” said Chief Anselm Njoku, a chieftain of the All Progressive Congress and chairman the Chairman, Ndigbo United Association, an apex political pressure group of Ndigbo in Lagos.

“The threat by these disgruntled elements in the North against Ndigbo has a remote cause. The threat is just a camouflage, the real thing they want to do is to overthrow the current administration,” he said.

Tension has been building. For the second time this month, Coalition of Niger Delta Agitators (CNDA) ordered northerners residing in the region to leave before October 1, 2017 or face consequences.

The coalition which is made up of nine groups, including Niger Delta Warriors, Niger Delta Volunteers (NDV), Niger Delta Watchdogs (NDW), Niger Delta Peoples Fighters (NDPF), Bakassi Freedom Fighters (BFF), Niger Delta Movement for Justice (NDMJ), Niger Delta Fighters Network (NDFN), Niger Delta Freedom Mandate (NDFM) and Niger Delta Development Network (NDDN), alleged that security agencies of being privy to the quit notice to the South Easterners by Arewa youths.

“All Northerners living in the Niger Delta have been given three months notice to quit the Niger Delta before October 1, 2017. We still stand by our previous decisions, and we demand immediate return of oil blocks being held by Northerners back to Niger Delta people.

“All oil and gas companies operating oil block(s)/well(s) illegally held by Northerners should also vacate such oil blocks/wells/platforms before October 1, 2017.”

Acting President Yemi Osinbajo has been working hard to broker peace, calling on leaders to condemn condemn divisive narratives. But it would seem that Osinbajo as acting president, is in himself part of the reason. Many, like Njoku, have argued that the threat by Arewa youths is an attempt to create confusion and pave the way for military take over in the event that President Muhammadu Buhari, who is battling undisclosed ailment in London, fails to continue as President.

In a statement last week, the Yoruba Council of Youths Worldwide led by Barr. Oladotun Hassan raised this concern, warning that any attempt to undermine the Acting President will be resisted.

“The statement by a coalition of youths from Northern Nigeria amounts to, in the least, outright treason and grand larceny. The idea that this country belongs to a particular tribe who believe they were “born to rule” has been taken too far this time,” the group said.

“This statement brings to mind the Rwandan tragedy where a pogrom of untold magnitude was triggered by a careless inciting statement by an overzealous Radio presenter. With the polity so heated and bottled up, such statement is capable of igniting the already heated up polity.

“Even if one wanted to ignore it as an empty threat, the actions of Northern Elders afterwards and the apparent complacency of the government in handling the situation informs otherwise,” the group said.

“Coming at a time a Yoruba man is the acting president and the mystery surrounding the health status of the president, it will not be out place to assume the North is on a scheme to ‘make Nigeria ungovernable’ in case there is need for a “doctrine of necessity. Any attempt to come in through the barrels of guns, citing insecurity and instability as alibi will be resisted.”

October 1 is fast approaching and threats are flying all over the place, especially on social media. And although the South East political leadership as well as the leaders of the North have continued to assure Igbo residents in the North that there is no cause for concern, apprehension is growing.

Kanu has meanwhile continued to insist on Biafra, and his campaign has been vigorous since his release from detention.

“We are fighting for independence; not fighting physically with guns and bullets, but we are fighting in terms of our agitation, we are fighting in terms of our beliefs,” he told German medium, DW in a recent interview.

“We are fighting in terms of our consistency to ensure that we are free because we are not free. As a free people, we can afford to make life better for our people. Right now we cannot do it because of the way Nigeria is structured.”

But it is not just Biafra agitation that is threatening to tear the country apart. Over the past months, the menace of Fulani herdsmen has constituted serious security threat. Across the South and the Middle Belt, they continue to kill, maim and sack communities while the government looks away.

“I am disturbed,” said Ms Oyiwodu Aje-Oitu, a master degree student of University of Benin. “It saddens me whenever I read posts filled with half truths and some outright false claims about Igbos, Hausas, Yorubas or any other tribe, region or religion.

“I once read a comment on Nairaland saying an educated Hausa man reasons like an average uneducated Igbo man. I smiled at the innocently condescending comment. And said no, he reasons like an equally educated Igbo man.”

Ugwuanyi Paul, a youth corper serving in Sokoto State equally expressed concerns over the current situation.

“I’m very much worried and any Nigerian who says he is not worried is actually being economical with the truth,” he said.

“My advice to the government is that there is a need to address the cause of the ethnic disunity by restructuring the nation to ensure equity or allowing the individual tribes to part,”

Calls for restructuring have been growing. Few weeks ago, the Senate asked presidency to submit the 2014 confab report for deliberations. A call that has been backed by Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE), Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, PANDEF and a number of other groups who have been actively asking for devolution of power in recent months.

It is the opinion of many, including former head of State, Ibrahim Babangida that the only way Nigeria can avoid doomsday is for restructuring to take place, and soon.

But the All Progressive Congress led Federal Government says restructuring is not its priority. The National Chairman of the party, Chief John Od­igie-Oyegun said Wednes­day that the priority of the party and government is to fix the challenges of the nation’s economy, restore hope to Nigerians and create jobs for its teeming youths. It is ready to watch pretentiously as the country falls apart.