Nigeria: Cracks in the cabal and the widening 2023 revolving doors

By SESAN LAOYE

Some may argue that it may be too early in the day. But against the backdrop of what is already tending to be a lame-duck presidency (what with the rising spate of inter-agency and personality squabbles), the fallouts from the 2019 polls, the sheer size of the nation and the expanded numbers of interests to satisfy, cut deals with and placate; others think that it is just about time for serious minded contenders for the Nigerian presidency in 2023 to seriously begin to initiate solid moves and demonstrate very firm ‘expressions of interest’ in that regard.

Most notable of all of the developments is what some observers are describing as cracks in the ruling cabal that have been occasioned by a combination of factors. These range from old age to death and then personality conflicts and unshifting cleavages.

In the practical field of play, two of the foremost players in the PMB presidency, namely Mallam Abba Kyari and Isa Funtua are deceased. Also, given the play of age, it is not expected that President Muhammadu Buhari himself and former Foreign Affairs Minister, Alhaji Babagana Kingibe may be in a position to play a most active role in the entire process.

As for Kaduna Governor, Nasir El Rufai, he has been seemingly bogged down by local issues in his home Kaduna State, pre-eminent of which is the management of the fall-outs of the now incessant and most unfortunate Southern Kaduna killings.  Boxed to a corner, analysts believe that it is indeed to buy him some space and leverage that El-Rufai recently announced in a media parley, that the North should simply encourage, and not stand in the way of the process of emergence of a President of Southern Nigerian extraction in 2023. The muted response to this weighty declaration, notably in many informed political circles in Southern Nigeria belie the fact that very few believe that he truly means what he has said.

Interestingly, El-Rufai’s comments are coming after one by Mamman Daura to the effect that Nigeria should discountenance zoning in the 2023 presidency process and choose a president only on the parameter of merit. What this clearly indicates is that Daura is presently coming out in the public sphere as being about the last of the hardliners who are still trying to wangle the stakes in favour of a possible president of Northern Nigerian extraction in the 2023 polls process.

To put this conjecture in perspective, it has to be noted that there have been underlying permutations over the voting strengths of the different segments of Nigeria, with the more popular feeling being that the North does hold the aces at the moment and that broken down, power is with it to give and to keep, should the different components of the nation be pitched against each other in a seismic North-South divide scenario.

The Bola Tinubu push

In many of the ongoing discussions about who could get the presidency in 2023, one of the most visible possible contenders has come to register in the person of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the National Leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC. A two-time governor of Lagos State and unarguably one of the most visible political gladiators in the land today, Tinubu has however continued to openly deny having an interest in the plum job at the moment, which of course many do not believe.

Evidence of this can be seen in the continuing shuffling that is going on openly and backstage within the APC. Indeed things have come to a head now with almost all eyes now being fixed on the Tinubu factor. ‘What about Tinubu, what is in it for Tinubu, what does Tinubu get?’ are some of the ripostes that easily come to the front burner when many issues are discussed within the party.

This came out quite glaringly in the recent tussle that led to the exit from the party of Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State and the ouster of Adams Oshiomhole from the National Chairmanship perch within the APC. Even when the Tinubu camp swung into damage control mode to put in place a replacement leadership that is amenable to its interests through the move to replace Oshiomhole with former Oyo State Governor, Abiola Ajimobi, a counter-move by his foes led to the sacking of the entire National Executive and its replacement with the Governor Buni-led Caretaker Committee.

A second line of opposition to Tinubu’s dominance in the party is said to be linked to the alleged hold-out stance of the Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami. Indeed, one or two analysts conjecture that the current travails of the suspended chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC may not be unconnected with what they describe as his alleged personal links and ties to Tinubu. They point for example to the fact that no less than two very high profile petitions raised against Tinubu have remained unattended to during Magu’s years in the saddle at the EFCC. The two are the terms of the Alpha Beta tax consultancy in Lagos State and the 2019 Election Day ‘Bourdillion Bullion Van’ controversy.

On the practical plane, it has also been rumoured that the rump of a 2023 Campaign Structure has already been put in place by the Jagaban side with some going as far as to speculate that indeed the structure has already named a Campaign Director from the North East.  In other tips, Tinubu, who literally relocated to the Federal Capital Territory as soon as the Lagos Governorship was safely handed over to his protégé, Sanwoolu, has continued to live in, and operate more routinely from Abuja and may have the likes of the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Engineer Babachir Lawal almost fully working for him going by the latter’s recent public declarations.

Should all of these be confirmed, it would confirm the fact that in appreciation of Nigeria’s current geo-political balance, Tinubu is intent on making quite serious inroads into the North.

Religious matters

When the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, jumped ship once again and announced his return to the APC, he openly predicated it on his disagreement with the governing style in his home Bauchi State. However, other sources have since hinted Business Hallmark that the full story is that Tinubu had reached out to him and discreetly encouraged him to make the jump on the premise that if he did, he would almost surely be rewarded with the number two slot in the contemplated Tinubu presidency.

The calculation here, our sources hint is simple. As a South West Muslim, Tinubu needs to placate the national Christian community that he would not be running with a Muslim-Muslim ticket. The choice of Dogara, it is figured, would comfort many that need to be reassured on this score given that he is a Bauchi Christian. Also, the fact of Dogara coming from the North East, his having an already visible public name and not already being tagged as a religious bigot by any of the religious interests in the land, our sources say, are further considerations for his presumed choice.

And the South East

Other than the South West, another zone in the country that is making a pitch for the 2023 presidency is the South East. Indeed, the agitation here is so fierce that it is being pitched by some as ‘a choice between the Presidency and exit from the federation.’ It is indeed a very touchy issue and one that has clearly not been helped by the incumbent All Progressive Congress, APC government’s attitude to continuing complaints of marginalization and angst from the region.

One of the factors being raised by Tinubu loyalists on this score is that if the presidency is to come to the South, care must be taken to ensure that the region puts its best and strongest foot forward. They say that the fact that Tinubu had already emerged over many years as the single most dominant player in the South West political firmament does establish him as the man to beat. They also point to the fissiparous pressures within the South East that make singular leadership selection a real hurdle to cross.

To make his work somewhat easier, Tinubu, very wisely did not directly respond to Labour Minister and former Anambra Governor, Chris Ngige, when the latter made what seemed to be snide remarks on his person and political heritage in his recently celebrated brush with Representative Faleke. But how would he handle the likes of Orji Uzor Kalu who is also at the moment said to be positioning to run for the same presidential slot in 2023?

If reaching out to the likes of Babachir Lawal and Yakubu Dogara would help with placating a segment of the North, our sources say that it is to be expected that similar shuttle diplomacy is also being initiated to expand the ranks of those within Team Tinubu, or at the least, increase the numbers of those that would eventually be counted upon to pitch for him at the close of the day.

While this could not be corroborated as at the time of going to the press, feelers are that the recent decision of ex-banker, Dr Alex Otti, to dump the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA in favour of the APC could fit conceptually into this broader calculation.

If indeed Team Tinubu is pushing such strategic leverage, it will resonate somewhat with a strategy from the playbook of one of Tinubu’s earliest political mentors, General Shehu Musa Yar Adua who built his enormous PF-PDM political machine on the shoulders of well heeled local politicians drawn from a plethora of interests across the country.

This they say may also explain Tinubu’s throwing in everything into the fray when he recently elected on taking a frontal position in Edo to help him hold on to the Adams Oshiomhole/Ize-Iyamu camp that currently has a solid chunk of the party in the state within its control. While on the surface of things, Tinubu’s strong entry into the fray comes across as defending the party’s interests, but on an extended plane, it is clearly also about building partisan troops for the battle ahead.

It is also in order to consolidate on this flank that Tinubu has also been said to be reportedly making overtures to the likes of former Kwara Governor and Senate President, Bukola Saraki to get him to also return to the party and help in further cementing his ‘Coalition of the Brave and Willing.’ At the least, Saraki would come in handy in helping to checkmate the Kwara/Kogi axis that between Governors Abdulrazak and Bello and SGF Ibrahim Gambari, may not exactly be pro-Tinubu at the moment.

Again, can he placate the North?

Indeed, what can Tinubu really do to placate the North, read, the Hausa-Fulani Muslim-dominated Northern Elite? As the battle for the control of the soul of Nigeria continues going forward, the core considerations for this critical bloc that has since the 1950s never shied away from insisting that the commanding heights of the nation’s political order is its to lord over and define, would be what indeed would it be getting, how would it be playing and how would its interests be protected going forward?

As things stand now, they have seemingly defined what they want: retaining public service appointments leverage, projects leverage and national cultural values leverage. Other elements include a strong place for sharia in the national ethic; the establishment of Ruga colonies countrywide, along with free room for the ‘Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders’ to graze their cattle and do their business in any part of the country; soft landing for Boko Haram and other northern-linked insurgent formations; right to settlement of Northerners everywhere in the country; continued membership of OPEC, the OIC and other Global Islamic Power constructs that Nigeria is presently aligned with; continued provision of economic subsidies for economic variables like fuel, power and agriculture that heavily impact on the economic lives of the people of the north; rebuilding and expanding the northern industrial base; and continuing with infrastructure and economic linkage projects to the Northern-linked nations of Niger, Chad and also North Africa.

In Obasanjo in 1999, the North encountered a relatively strong and self-willed President that it could not completely contain. In pushing the course of privatization and a trimmer federal bureaucracy, the nation moved further on the growth curve but the North lost in patronage and regional interest terms.