Kogi polls: Ododo, Bello’s prodigy, walks tightrope

Adebayo Obajemu

Governor Yahaya Bello has been going to town preaching a gospel of victory for his party, the All Progressives Congress; and his hand-picked prodigy, Ahmed Usman Ododo, as one, who is assuredly going to win this weekend’s governorship election in Kogi State.

But the matter is not as simple and simplistic as it seems. Analysts believe it’s much more complex, more nuanced than what the outgoing governor want the public to believe.

To be fair to him, he has the right to harbour optimism given that he has a dog in the fight, besides, it will be difficult for him to countenance opposition party taking over the state from him.
As a man, who has projected the image of a macho governor with considerable gravitas, it was only expected that the succession game would be his to control to cement a legacy.

It’s no brainer that the November 11 governorship election is a three horse race featuring Ahmed Ododo, the All Progressives Congress’ flag-bearer and the anointed Bello’s successor. There’s former senator Dino Melaye of the People’s Democratic Party, and Muritala Yakubu Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party.

The rest 15 candidates are widely believed to be pretenders working on a card that will crumble like a cookie.

The first sign that Bello’s optimism of easy victory may run into troubled waters, according to analysts and observers of Kogi politics, is the pattern of population and voting strength not being skewed in favour of his candidate.

Ododo comes from the same Kogi Central as the governor with five local governments, while Ajaka’s Kogi East boasts of nine local governments, while Melaye, who comes from Kogi West has seven local governments.

The Atta of Igala, the most influential in the state, was reported to have subtly impressed it on other candidates from the zone to withdraw or, at least, clandestinely support Ajaka with their structures in order to present a united front for state capture.
Bello , according to professor Usman Yusuf, a political scientist “may find it difficult to make any inroad in the East because of how he managed the politics of succession treating other zones with disdain and subterfuge. One of his powerful allies, his former Chief of Staff in his first term, and Deputy governor in his second term- Edward Onoja, is from the East. Sources hinted that Bello had given him the impression that he would support him, only to turn over his support to his brother – Ododo. Sight is not lost on the zone “among other sins,” according to insiders, who spoke with Business Hallmark.
This much was attested to by no other than Ajaka himself.

In a recent interview with Cable, he said “Yahaya Bello failed to lead as a statesman, he wants to give it to his brother from the same local government. It has never happened in the history of the state.”

“The eastern plank is the most populated and most agitated, but it’s a normal thing when you are in the majority. The incumbent governor did not manage things well. There is a way he would have handled this succession issue and it wouldn’t have caused any problem.

“If you are not ready to go with the majority, you give it to the next majority, which is the Okun people (the Yoruba-speaking part of Kogi). If you had given it to them, the Igala man has no justification to say he will be in that office for now. Yahaya Bello failed to lead as a statesman; he wants to give it to his brother from the same local government. It has never happened in the history of the state — even when the Igalas were doing it back to back — for an Igala man to succeed an Igala man from the same local government.

What goes for Onoja , goes for Senator Smart Adéyemí. Bello and Adéyemí were once allies in the fight against Melaye, and Adéyemí allegedly , according to sources, extracted a pledge of support from the governor in 2023 governorship election.
Many in the West believe it’s not moral for Okene man to support another Okene man. This has poisoned opinion against Bello and his anointed. Ajaka’s deputy is from the West Senatorial same as Melaye.

This medium learnt that many in the West are aware of the limited chances for Melaye, and there’s a subterranean move to vote for Ajaka in return for the favour to be returned in the next run of election in 2027 if he goes for one term , or 2031 if he decides to go for two terms in the event he wins.

Business Hallmark’s extensive investigations showed that mass of the people, the civil servants and the professionals are not happy with the tenure of Bello.

But Bello himself and his handlers do not share this pessimistic assessment of the performance of the governor.

A member of Ododo Campaign Council, who is also the incumbent Commissioner for Information, Kingsley Fanwo, said “APC expressed optimism in the election, saying, “We are in the contest to win, free and fair. Some are in the contest to take donations to service their prodigal and irresponsible lifestyle while some are out to negotiate for the future.”

The statement released by Fanwo pilloried other candidates’ chances and especially came hard on Melaye.

“Dino Melaye, whose ‘ticket’ set fire to the PDP, leading to the defection of key leaders and officials of the party at all levels, knows that he stands no chance in the forthcoming election, hence, his usual drama of raising false alarms and claims that do not exist. The game is over for him.

“As incongruent as the allegations are, it is important to state unequivocally here that as a party, we will deploy all legal, constitutional and administrative means to protect our victory that is certain owing to the massive acceptance of our candidate by the Kogi people, ” he said.

Governor Yahaya Bello and his commissioners, at the Third GYB Seminar for Nigeria’s Political and Crime Correspondents/Editors in Abuja, said with the achievements of the APC in the last seven and half years and the capacity of its candidate, Alhaji Ahmed Ododo, the party would record landslide victory in the election.

He said he has put on the ground a sound development template that would make his successor outperform him, said Ododo understands the process, will win the election and take Kogi to greater heights.

According to Bello, his achievements in the last seven and half years include the allocation of 30 per cent of the budget to education, which has led to the building of two new state universities, boosting the sector and taking Kogi from 28th position in 2016 when he took over, to 14 out of the 36 states of the country.

He said he has changed the narrative in the area of security and has ensured the security of Kogi, which used to be the kidnapping capital of Nigeria by chasing kidnappers and bandits out of the state, the governor assured that the November 11 poll will be the freest, fairest and most peaceful ever in the history of elections in Kogi.

His other achievements, the governor said include making Kogi the best state in Northern Nigeria in terms salary payment; recruitment of over 1,500 teachers; allocation of 16 per cent of the budget to healthcare leading to improved healthcare delivery and services via the building of a 300-bed reference hospital in Okene with modern equipment, raising the state’s internally generated revenue, IGR from N250m in 2016 to N1.5bn now, reduction of the state’s debt profile and attraction of $1bn inflows in 2020 among others.

But many, who spoke to Business Hallmark disprove these claims, saying the governor was not speaking the truth.

Wọlé Ajere, a resident of Kabba said ” the outcome of November 11 election will shock Bello. It will be a referendum on his tenure. He will be shocked.”
“The victory of Natasha Akpoti- Uduaghan is seen in Kogi as a sign of the compromised nature of the electoral process, where the will of the people is subverted’, Omale John, an activist told Business Hallmark. He said the Appeal Court has restored justice, noting that the November election will be a litmus test for Bello and Ododo. “Wait and see, I can tell you that on that day the old order will be overthrown.”

Recall that the newly sworn in Senator representing Kogi Central Senatorial District, Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, had earlier rejected Governor Yahaya Bello’s congratulatory message to her.

Bello described Natasha as his sister, adding that it was necessary for him to accept the court verdict on Natasha’s victory to avoid a breakdown of law and order in the state.

However, a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Haruna Salihu in an interview said that the chances of the candidate of the ruling APC, Ahmed Usman Ododo emerging victorious in the upcoming election in Kogi state was high.

He made this declaration following the outcome of a pre-election opinion poll, which predicted that the APC candidate will win the Kogi State governorship election slated for November 11, 2023.

According to Salihu, the poll result, which was released by Perms Media, showed Ododo has a better chance of winning the election as respondents on the survey conducted by the media outfit between August 31 and September 14 indicated.

Though many, who spoke to Business Hallmark are of the view that the said poll was a hatchet job, a yeoman attempt to misrepresent the facts.
The poll, however, showed that overall, 90% of respondents see a likely two or three horse race between the APC, PDP and SDP while the other 15 parties have a weaker chance of victory.

The report by the pollster said, “The demography of respondents spread across the three senatorial districts of the state, translating to an unbiased and even representation.

“lt was a painstakingly controlled sampling with a variety of people from different walks of life covering the districts and down to communities and settlements in the hinterland.

“They include civil servants, industrialists, farmers, businessmen and women as well as students and artisans.”

The report said beside the fair distribution of the respondents, questionnaires were streamlined in concise, clear, and well-phrased for quicker understanding of issues as questions depict neutrality, fairness, and transparency.

However, out of the 18 contesting candidates, the survey only placed attention on the candidates of the leading political parties in the state.

The report said in the equitable distribution of the survey conducted online, for example, a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 points was recorded while that of registered voters was 2.3.
It said those contacted on telephone with live interviewers produced 2.1 in sampling error just as 1.9 points was recorded for party-leaning voters to suggest that respondents have already made up their minds on the candidate of their choice.

“Of Kogi’s total polling units of 3,508, the east senatorial district has 1,714; the West, 892 and Central, 902. The distribution of the Local Government Areas of the state ordinarily places the East ahead of others on ratio 9:7:5 for East, West and Central.

“The state’s 239 wards also follow this pattern, but the opinion poll indicates that the voters in the districts are not entirely swayed by their ethnic affinities.

“Overall, 90% of respondents see a likely two or three horse race between the APC, PDP and SDP while the remaining 15 other parties contesting lack any chance.

“Even though the PDP seems to be having a stiff opposition in the west, voters see that as only counting within that region but feel that the choice of the party’s deputy governorship candidate may make a marginal impact in his favour outside the region.”
Conclusively, the poll, which was conducted with extensive coverage of the state had a random sample of 45,000 respondents from virtually almost each of the polling units of Kogi State.

Going by extensive investigations prognosis favours Social Democratic Party as likely to win given a complex of factors. This is baring other factors such as electoral malpractices, violence and intimidations.
“If the election is free and fair it will be difficult for APC to win going by the sociology of grievances against Bello and his handling of the succession game in the state’, Dr. Ahmed Abubakar of the Centre for Social Survey told Business Hallmark.