Fuel export surge lifts Nigeria to $3.42bn current account surplus in Q3 2025

Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of $3.42bn in the third quarter of 2025, buoyed by a sharp rise in crude oil and refined petroleum product exports, even as the surplus fell significantly from the previous quarter, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The Q3 2025 Balance of Payments Highlights, obtained on Wednesday, showed that although Nigeria’s external position remained positive, the surplus declined by 41.14 per cent from the $5.81bn recorded in the second quarter of the year. The figure was also lower than the $5.78bn surplus posted in the same period of 2024, reflecting mounting pressure on the country’s external accounts.

The CBN attributed the sustained surplus largely to stronger oil-sector performance. Crude oil exports rose from $7.66bn in Q2 to $8.45bn in Q3 2025, representing a 10.31 per cent increase, supported by improved crude evacuation and relatively stable global oil prices.

More striking was the surge in refined petroleum product exports, which jumped by 44.03 per cent to $2.29bn in the third quarter, up from $1.59bn in Q2. Analysts link the development to rising domestic refining capacity and the gradual ramp-up of privately owned refineries.

At the same time, Nigeria’s imports of refined petroleum products declined by 12.7 per cent, falling from $1.89bn in Q2 to $1.65bn in Q3, helping to ease pressure on the country’s trade balance.

In its report, the CBN said Nigeria’s balance of payments in the third quarter “remained in surplus, supported largely by higher crude oil and refined petroleum product exports, despite a moderation in the overall current account balance compared with the preceding quarter.”

The apex bank identified the combination of increased oil exports and reduced fuel imports as key factors sustaining the surplus during the period.

However, despite the improved oil trade flows, the overall current account surplus narrowed sharply compared with the second quarter, pointing to broader structural pressures within Nigeria’s balance of payments. The CBN noted that higher outflows in other components of the current account—particularly services and primary income—along with exchange-rate adjustments and rising non-oil imports, weighed on the overall position.

The report showed that Nigeria continued to benefit from a strong surplus in the secondary income account, estimated at $5.50bn, largely driven by diaspora remittances, which helped cushion the impact of weaker balances elsewhere.

A comparison of quarterly performance highlighted the divergence in trends. While Q2 2025 recorded stronger net inflows that pushed the surplus to $5.81bn, the third quarter saw the surplus retreat to $3.42bn despite higher export earnings from oil and refined products.

According to the CBN, the latest outcome reflects the lingering effects of elevated import bills, rising external obligations and seasonal pressures that typically affect Nigeria’s external accounts in the second half of the year.

Nigeria’s balance of payments has been under close scrutiny in 2025 amid ongoing foreign exchange reforms, the removal of fuel subsidies and renewed efforts to expand non-oil exports.

The rise in refined petroleum product exports aligns with the Federal Government’s strategy to reduce dependence on fuel imports, with new and rehabilitated refineries expected to play a larger role in external trade. Similarly, the increase in crude oil exports reflects ongoing efforts by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and upstream operators to stabilise production, improve pipeline security and curb losses from theft.

While Nigeria’s external position remained positive in Q3 2025, the sharp quarter-on-quarter decline in the surplus underscores the fragility of the balance of payments and the need for sustained structural reforms. Analysts note that maintaining a strong surplus will depend on managing import growth, deepening non-oil exports and sustaining remittance inflows in the coming quarters.