Experts differ on impact of Buhari’s ERGP  

President Buhari

By Adebayo Obajemu

Economy commentators and experts are divided on the impact of the President Muhammadu Buhari’s economic blueprint,
the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP),on the economy, more than one year after implementation. The blueprint  was launched in April last year , In making one year assessment of the policy, some experts who spoke to this newspaper have differing opinions on the  impact of the ERGP, designed as a medium term all-round developmental initiative focused on restoring growth, investing in people and building a globally competitive  economy.

Dr. Olufemi Omoyele, a  Development Economist at Redeemer University told makeit that ” one year after implementation, the result has been a mixed grill, in some areas, we have witnessed tremendous progress such as
the introduction of the Voluntary Asset & Income Declaration Scheme (VAIDS) , as we can see effective implementation of the VAIDS is gradually restoring the efficiency of the country’s tax system. According IFRS chairman, a total of N20bn (out of a target  N305bn) has so far been realised from 262 corporate taxpayers who have declared their assets under the scheme within 8 months of implementation.

” Then, there is the introduction of Importers & Exporters (I&E) FX window: Premia in the FX Market has narrowed in the post I&E window era and remains relatively flat, albeit susceptible to intermittent FX demand. The Naira has gradually settled to N360-N365 in the parallel Market as at April 2018″, said Omoyele

A Professor of Development Economics, Mrs Sarah Anyanwu, commended President Buhari for inaugurating the ERGP, saying “the country needs the plan to get out of recession so as not to prolong it.”

Anyanwu, former Head of Economics Department, University of Abuja, said that the Plan has succeeded in restoring some sanity to the economy.

She, however, noted that its implementation has been challenging  because it needed political support for the people to implement it.

“We need political will to support those that will implement the plan and bring out resources to do so.

`”We also need experts to implement the Plan; people that are knowledgeable about economy not politicians that are not informed.

“Government must put politics aside and look for experts to implement the plan and also people of integrity.

“Economy is different from politics; we need people with brain and expertise.,but so far, government has not allowed experts to implement it, and there has been much politics, so it is a mixed grill.

Similarly, an economist, Dr Aminu Usman, expressed optimism that ERGP would move the country out of recession and probably put the country on the path of sustainable development if well implemented, but decried slow implementation so far, in spite of its laudable objectives

Usman, the Head of Economics Department, Kaduna State University, told makeit that the  ERGP was announced without implementation plan.
He stated that there ” has been sustained recovery from recession and growth in GDP to 1.92% as at Q42017. The Nigerian economy advanced 1.9 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017, accelerating from a 1.4 percent growth in the prior period. It is the third consecutive quarter of expansion and the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2015.

” Headline inflation moderates with a downward trend  for 14 consecutive months to 13.34 % as at Q1 2018 compared to 18.33%1 in October 2016 , he said.

According to him, foreign reserves hit a 5 year high of $46B in Q12018  as stability has been restored in oil producing states through sustained dialogue with Niger Delta militants and rising crude oil prices.

Ambrose Omordion, CEO of Investa told this newspaper that there has been tremendous progress in the area of agriculture.  He said ” the ERGP has continued to ride on the success of the CBN Anchors Borrowers’ Programme. Over N55bn has been disbursed by the Central Bank of Nigeria to over 250,000 farmers under the scheme. About 80 per cent of this has gone into rice production, further driving the nation’s target of attaining self-sufficiency by 2018 with respect to rice production.

Dr Olusanya Olubusoye, former 2nd Vice-President of Nigerian Statistical Association (NSA),  has more worry, his concern was that government should fill the gaps in ERGP to enhance its effective implementation.

Olubusoye advised Federal Government to incorporate constituencies in the implementation of the ERGP.

He said as a ration with 36 states and 774 local government areas, Nigeria needed to incorporate both states and local governments into the plan for effective implementation.

The official explained that Lagos State being the 7th largest economy in Africa should have a key role to play in the ERGP implementation.

“How can you grow the economy by seven per cent in a Plan that does not assign any role for states like Lagos, Rivers, Kano, Akwa Ibom and Kaduna?

“Are these states not part of the plan to grow the Nigerian economy, how realistic will it be? Lagos Gross Domestic Product (DGP) for 2014 stood at 90 billion (about 15 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP).

“The same year, the GDP for Nigeria was 573 billion, so after Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt, Algeria, Angola, Morocco, Lagos economy is next.

“So, if these states with their constituencies are not taken along, the 774 local governments will not be part of it.” According to him, that so far has been a big drawback to the plan.

Omordion noted that an Increase in non-oil revenue generated from agricultural sector.
” Agriculture contributed 21.97% to nominal GDP. This figure is higher than the rates recorded for the fourth quarter of 2016 and lower than third quarter of 2017 at 21.35% and 24.44% respectively. Annual growth rate recorded was 11.29% in 2017 as against 9.61% in 2016.

“The economic blueprint led to  N118.98 billion as budgetary allocation to the Agricultural sector for the year 2018, N15b higher than N103b of previous year.

“Other pipeline projects recently launched include the Accelerated Agricultural Development Scheme (AADS), commissioning of the West African Cotton Company Limited (WACOT) Rice Mill in Argungu, Kebbi State with production capacity of 120,000 metric tonnes, African Soil Information Service (AFSIS) pilot project all geared towards enhancing productivity within in the agricultural sector.