Events, policies that will shape Nigeria in 2026 – politics, economy, security, others

The year 2025 proved to be a watershed  in Nigeria’s political, economic, and security landscape, marked by seismic shifts that will reverberate well into 2026. From the deaths of towering national figures like former president, Muhammadu Buhari, and Chief Edwin Clark, to unprecedented emergency rule in Rivers State, mass defections from the PDP and other parties to APC, and the conviction of separatist leader, Nnamdi Kanu, the nation grappled with crises that tested the resilience of its democratic institutions.

Simultaneously, transformative developments in the corporate and energy sectors – including Femi Otedola’s strategic exits, Tony Elumelu’s energy investments, and the nationwide rollout of Dangote Refinery fuel – recast the economic terrain.

Rising insecurity, renewed mass kidnappings, foreign interventions, and international trade shocks further complicated governance, while opposition realignments under the ADC signaled the emergence of new political fault lines.

This report analyses fifteen defining events of 2025, examining their immediate and long-term implications for governance, security, democracy, and economic stability in 2026, offering a comprehensive lens on a nation at a critical juncture.

1. Buhari’s marks end of northern political consensus

The death of former president Muhammadu Buhari on June 13, 2025 closed a political epoch that had shaped northern Nigeria for over two decades. Buhari was an electoral force, a symbol, and a moral reference point for millions, particularly across the North.

From his early civilian runs beginning in 2003 to his historic victory in 2015 as the first opposition candidate to defeat an incumbent president, Buhari embodied a politics of personal austerity, military discipline, and messianic expectation that welded northern political leadership. Even after an underwhelming eight-year presidency that eroded much of his mystique, he remained a rallying totem whose endorsement, silence or body language carried immense political weight.

His death fundamentally altered the arithmetic of northern politics as Nigeria heads into 2026 and the critical prelude to the 2027 elections. For the first time in a generation, the North no longer has a single unifying political figure capable of commanding near-instinctive loyalty across class, ethnic and ideological divides.

Buhari’s absence has accelerated an already brewing fragmentation of his once-monolithic base. Politicians, who previously hid under his shadow must now compete openly, exposing fault lines between conservative Islamists, technocratic reformers, ethnic champions, and opportunistic power brokers. The result is a North that is politically noisier, less predictable, and far harder to mobilize as a single bloc.

This vacuum will shape 2026 in profound ways. Without Buhari as an anchor, northern politics will increasingly be transactional rather than sentimental. Aspirants will have to earn loyalty through concrete performance, regional bargaining, or sheer patronage, rather than inherited goodwill. As Dr. Naseer Kura Ja’afaru rightly observed, figures like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rabiu Kwankwaso carry too much political baggage to replicate the “Buhari phenomenon.”

This opens space for new actors, but also increases instability. For President Bola Tinubu, Buhari’s death removes a stabilizing elder whose quiet approval helped legitimized his northern support base in 2023. In 2026, Tinubu will have to actively renegotiate northern allegiance, making the road to 2027 significantly more treacherous.

2. NASS: power, gender and constitutional ambiguity

The six-month suspension of Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan in March 2025 was one of the most contentious legislative actions in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. Officially justified on grounds of misconduct and defiance of Senate rules, the punishment quickly took on deeper political and symbolic meanings. Akpoti-Uduaghan’s prior allegation of sexual harassment against Senate President Godswill Akpabio, dismissed on procedural grounds, ensured that the episode could not be treated as a routine disciplinary matter. The withdrawal of her salary, sealing of her office, and insistence on a written apology projected raw institutional power, raising uncomfortable questions about whether legislative discipline had crossed into political vendetta.

Beyond the individual, the suspension reopened unresolved constitutional debates that will continue to echo through 2026. Nigeria’s constitution grants lawmakers fixed tenure, yet remains ambiguous about the extent to which a legislative chamber can suspend an elected representative for prolonged periods without effectively disenfranchising constituents. Civil society groups, legal scholars and opposition figures seized on the Akpoti-Uduaghan case as evidence of how internal parliamentary rules can be weaponized to silence dissent. The optics were, especially damaging in a country already grappling with accusations of democratic backsliding, shrinking civic space and elite impunity.

Politically, the fallout will shape Kogi and national politics in 2026. The episode revived the ambitions of Yahaya Bello, Akpoti-Uduaghan’s long-standing rival, who is now openly eyeing the Senate. With the PDP weakened by internal crises and defections, and the APC increasingly willing to deploy state power aggressively, the groundwork has been laid for a bruising contest in Kogi Central.

3. Rivers: Tinubu, Wike and presidential interventions

The declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State in March 2025 and the  suspension of an elected governor, his deputy and the entire House of Assembly, marked a defining rupture in Nigeria’s post-1999 democratic practice. President Bola Tinubu justified the move on grounds of political paralysis, legislative breakdown and security threats linked to pipeline vandalism, but the underlying reality was unmistakably political: an all-out power war between Gov. Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike.

The Rivers episode reshaped power relations in ways that will reverberate throughout 2026. First, it emboldened the presidency by demonstrating that constitutional ambiguities around emergency powers can be stretched to neutralize sub-national resistance. Second, it weakened governors nationwide by reminding them that political survival increasingly depends on remaining within the good graces of the center.

Third, it normalized the idea that internal party or elite disputes can justify extraordinary federal intervention. The legal debates triggered by the suspension have not been conclusively resolved, meaning that emergency rule now hangs like a loaded weapon in Nigeria’s political arsenal, available for future use.

All these challenges surrounding the emergency rule were compounded by the equivocation and delay by the Supreme Court to make an authoritative declaration on the suit early filed by the PDP governors, to which Fubara then belonged, which showed the court as compromised and deferring to the Executive. It’s signified uncertain over Resolution of political disputes, such as party primaries and election outcomes.

As 2026 unfolds, Rivers State is set to remain a flashpoint. The renewed impeachment moves by the Wike-aligned House of Assembly members, despite Fubara’s defection to the APC and his growing proximity to Tinubu, and Wike open brush with the APC hierarchy suggest that the crisis has entered a more combustible phase.

Observers increasingly see an inevitable collision between Tinubu and Wike – a clash between presidential authority and the raw, street-fighting politics Wike embodies. If Rivers becomes the battleground on which that confrontation is fought, the implications will go far beyond one state. It will test the limits of presidential power, the durability of party discipline, and the fragile balance between federal authority and democratic restraint.

4. Tinubu redraws the northern political map

The resignations of former APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, in June 2025, and Defence Minister, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, in December, signalled a deeper realignment within Nigeria’s ruling elite. Ganduje’s exit, officially attributed to health and personal reasons, came amid fierce internal party battles, zoning disputes and lingering allegations from his time as Kano governor. Badaru’s sack, also framed around health concerns, occurred against the backdrop of escalating insecurity and public frustration with the government’s security response. In both cases, the official explanations obscured the idea that Tinubu was clearing the deck.

What made the reshuffle, especially consequential, was who replaced them. By appointing figures from the Middle Belt – including Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, as APC chairman and retired General Christopher Musa, as defence minister – Tinubu subtly, but decisively, shifted the regime’s center of gravity away from the core North.

This recalibration reflects a cold political calculation. The core North, once unified under Buhari’s moral authority, is now fractured, noisy, and harder to manage. The Middle Belt, by contrast, offers Tinubu a region hungry for recognition, less encumbered by old political hierarchies, and strategically positioned as a swing zone between North and South.

This shift will shape 2026 in destabilizing ways. While the Middle Belt may feel newly empowered, resentment is quietly building across the core North, where political elites increasingly perceive Tinubu as ungrateful to the region that delivered a crucial share of his 2023 victory. That feeling may not erupt immediately, but it will color elite calculations as the 2027 election approaches.

5. Service chiefs reshuffled: security reform or symbolic reset?

President Tinubu’s decision to replace Nigeria’s service chiefs in October 2025 was widely framed as a decisive response to worsening insecurity. By appointing General Olufemi Oluyede as Chief of Defence Staff and changing the heads of the Army, Navy and Air Force, the president signalled dissatisfaction with the existing security architecture. The move followed months of mounting public anger over mass kidnappings, banditry, insurgent attacks and the state’s apparent inability to protect lives and property. In political terms, the reshuffle was necessary; failure to act would have reinforced perceptions of drift and helplessness at the center.

Yet, the deeper question heading into 2026 is whether the changes represent genuine reform, or merely a symbolic reset. Nigeria’s security crisis is structural, rooted in poor intelligence coordination, enemy infiltration, weak policing, economic collapse, arms proliferation and the erosion of state authority in rural areas.

Changing commanders without overhauling doctrine, funding mechanisms, civil-military relations, and accountability risks producing only cosmetic improvement. The retention of Major-General E.A.P. Undiendeye as Chief of Defence Intelligence suggests continuity rather than rupture, reinforcing scepticism that the reshuffle alone can deliver transformational outcomes.

The stakes for 2026 are high. With U.S. airstrikes now part of Nigeria’s counterterrorism landscape, and Trump signalling readiness to escalate if attacks persist, Tinubu’s security strategy will be under unprecedented international and domestic scrutiny.

6. Insecurity: mass abductions, others continue

The resurgence of mass student abductions in late 2025 shattered any illusion that Nigeria had turned a corner on kidnapping-for-ransom. The abduction of about 230 pupils and staff from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Niger State – followed by similar incidents in Kebbi and elsewhere – reopened old wounds and reignited national fear. Although, all victims were eventually released, the pattern was unmistakable: armed groups remain capable of launching large-scale operations, negotiating ransoms and retreating with impunity. The fact that releases occurred without decisive military rescue only reinforced perceptions that the state has lost deterrence.

As Nigeria enters 2026, the implications are grim. School safety has once again become a national emergency, threatening education outcomes, particularly in the North, and North-Central regions. Parents are withdrawing children from boarding schools, states are diverting scarce resources to ad-hoc security arrangements, and learning environments are increasingly militarised.

The Safe Schools Declaration, repeatedly invoked after previous abductions, remains unevenly implemented, exposing the gap between policy rhetoric and operational reality.

Politically, the return of mass kidnappings undermines Tinubu’s broader reform agenda. Economic reforms, tax changes and subsidy removals mean little to families, who fear sending their children to school.

7. Opposition repositioning under ADC

In July 2025, a coalition of opposition heavyweights including Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi  came under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as a common platform for the 2027 elections. The move signalled recognition that Nigeria’s fragmented opposition needed consolidation to effectively challenge the ruling APC.

With former Senate President David Mark as interim national chairman and Rauf Aregbesola as interim secretary, the coalition attempted to project unity while maintaining an image of institutional legitimacy, framing their agenda as a “rescue mission” to salvage Nigeria from economic hardship, rising authoritarianism, and policy drift.

Yet, the ADC coalition faces structural hurdles that will define its relevance in 2026. First, the alliance is elite-driven, relying heavily on personal networks, name recognition, and political pedigree. Grassroots mobilization, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas, remains uneven, leaving the party vulnerable to APC co-option and voter apathy.

Second, internal disputes over leadership positions, zoning expectations, and policy direction persist beneath the surface, threatening cohesion at critical moments.

Third, the coalition’s reliance on former heavyweight figures may limit its appeal to a younger electorate increasingly frustrated with transactional politics. The question remains whether ADC can translate elite consensus into durable, nationwide political traction.

Looking ahead, the ADC’s efforts will shape 2026 in several ways. If the coalition consolidates, it could force the APC to defend states previously considered secure, especially in the South and parts of the Middle Belt. Conversely, if the alliance fragments, the APC will benefit from a divided opposition, potentially entrenching one-party dominance ahead of 2027. Observers note that ADC’s fortunes in 2026 will be a litmus test of Nigeria’s democratic resilience: a strong, disciplined opposition could restore electoral competitiveness, while failure would underscore the erosion of multiparty checks and balances.

8. Mass PDP, others’ defections

Throughout 2025, Nigeria witnessed an unprecedented wave of political realignment as, at least, six PDP governors and scores of lawmakers defected to the APC. The defections dramatically altered the federal balance of power, leaving the APC in control of 27 states and reducing the PDP to a fraction of its former strength.

Defectors justified their moves by citing internal crises within the PDP, and others, frustrations with leadership, and the practical need to align with the federal government. Critics, however, argued that such opportunistic cross-carpeting weakens democratic competition and risks entrenching a de facto one-party system.

The implications for 2026 are significant. For the APC, consolidation offers the advantage of streamlined legislative collaboration and deeper control over resource distribution, particularly in states, where federal patronage matters. But the party also faces a hidden cost of incorporating defectors may dilute internal discipline, spark factionalism, and compromise long-term ideological coherence in 2026.

For the PDP, the mass exodus represents a moment of existential reflection. Unless it successfully rebuilds its base, addresses internal governance failures, and articulates a compelling narrative, the party risks permanent marginalization, creating a political vacuum in which the APC dominates both federal and sub-national arenas.

9. Deaths of Edwin Clark, Ayo Adebanjo, and dearth of moral authority

The passing of Chief Edwin Clark on February 17, 2025, and Chief Ayo Adebanjo later in the year, marked the symbolic end of an era of political morality. Clark, a Pan-Niger Delta icon, had long championed resource control, federalism, and social justice, while Adebanjo embodied Yoruba nationalist activism and principled opposition to military and authoritarian excess.

Both figures were bridges to Nigeria’s formative post-independence struggles, offering moral authority, historical perspective, and ethical guidance that transcended partisan politics.

Their absence has immediate and long-term consequences. First, the vacuum of elder statesmen leaves younger politicians freer to engage in power contests with fewer ethical constraints, raising the likelihood of zero-sum politics.

Second, their deaths highlight generational shifts within Nigerian politics: seasoned, principled voices are being replaced by transactional actors, whose influence is largely tied to resources and patronage, rather than historical legitimacy. Third, the fading of these figures reduces the ability of civil society and regional actors to hold governments accountable, weakening checks on executive and legislative power.

As 2026 unfolds, the symbolic and practical impact of these losses will be felt in multiple arenas. In the Niger Delta, the absence of Clark’s steady hand may embolden both militant actors and political opportunists, complicating regional stability and federal negotiations over resource allocation.

In Yoruba and other Southern political circles, the passing of Adebanjo removes a moral anchor, creating space for populist rhetoric and factionalism.

10. Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern”

On October 31, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump redesignated Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” (CPC), citing alleged systematic violations of religious freedom, particularly mass killings of Christians by extremist groups. This reversed Nigeria’s removal from the CPC list in 2021, immediately raising fears of potential diplomatic and economic sanctions. The decision sparked tension between Washington and Abuja, with Nigerian authorities rejecting the framing, arguing that insecurity is a complex, multi-ethnic, and multi-religious phenomenon. The move also drew international attention to Nigeria’s internal security crisis, putting the country under renewed global scrutiny.

The economic consequences became immediately apparent. Trade with the United States, already under pressure from shifting tariffs, saw a sharp reversal. Imports from the U.S. doubled to N6.8tn, while exports fell to N941bn in the first nine months of 2025, producing a yawning trade deficit.

The CPC designation risks further dampening investor confidence, discouraging American companies from engaging in Nigeria’s non-oil sectors, and placing additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Nigerian businesses dependent on U.S. markets are likely to face greater regulatory and financial uncertainty in 2026, affecting both industrial output and job creation.

Politically, the CPC designation carries longer-term implications. This was followed with a new Visa policy that restricts Nigerians access to the U.S, along other countries of particular concern. Then, further obstacle followed by year with the imposition of a refundable $15000 deposit by every Visa application by Nigerians.

Nigeria’s government will face increasing pressure to demonstrate effective protection of religious and civilian rights, with potential impact on the federal government’s legitimacy. President Tinubu may find himself balancing domestic political considerations with international expectations, particularly in regions sensitive to U.S. perception, such as the North and the Southeast. In 2026, this diplomatic tension could influence policy choices, security strategies, and even electoral posturing as leaders seek to mitigate external pressures while retaining domestic authority.

11. U.S. military airstrikes in Nigeria: a new era of external intervention

On December 25, 2025, the United States conducted its first direct airstrikes in Nigeria, targeting ISIS-affiliated militants in Sokoto State in coordination with the Nigerian government. Announced as a response to extremist killings, the strikes reportedly killed several militants and destroyed terrorist infrastructure, though local accounts suggested civilian casualties and property damage.

The operation marked a significant escalation in foreign military involvement in Nigeria, raising sensitive questions about sovereignty, civilian protection, and the long-term implications of external intervention in domestic security affairs.

For 2026, the airstrikes herald a complex security environment. The Tinubu administration must now navigate the political optics of hosting foreign military operations while maintaining credibility among Nigerians, particularly in affected communities. There is also the potential for escalation, as President Trump signalled that airstrikes could continue if attacks persisted, creating the risk of unintended conflict or retaliation by militant groups. In addition, local militias and criminal networks may adjust their strategies in response to external military pressure, potentially complicating domestic counterterrorism operations.

Strategically, U.S. involvement may bring mixed results. On the one hand, coordinated operations can degrade extremist networks, improve intelligence sharing, and relieve pressure on overstretched Nigerian forces. On the other hand, the presence of foreign troops could fuel nationalist or anti-American sentiment, providing propaganda fodder for insurgents and complicating reconciliation efforts in the Northwest.

12. Nnamdi Kanu conviction to life reshapes separatist agitation

In November 2025, a Federal High Court sentenced Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), to life imprisonment on seven terrorism-related charges, including incitement and leading a banned organization. The judgment, delivered in absentia after Kanu refused to mount a defence, represented a decisive escalation in the federal government’s crackdown on separatist agitation in the Southeast. The ruling signaled that Nigeria’s legal and security apparatus was willing to enforce zero-tolerance measures against groups promoting violent secession.

The implications for 2026 are significant. First, Kanu’s incarceration is likely to diminish the operational capacity of IPOB,  curtailing large-scale mobilizations and militant activities. Second, the sentencing may shift the movement’s strategy toward more symbolic, underground, or political forms of agitation, potentially reducing violence, but increasing the complexity of monitoring separatist networks.

Third, the ruling reinforces the government’s messaging that violent separatism carries severe legal consequences, which may dissuade opportunistic actors from joining insurgent efforts.

13. Controversy, uncertainty over signed tax laws

On June 26, 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed four landmark tax reform laws, describing them as the most ambitious overhaul of Nigeria’s tax system in decades. The reforms were designed to simplify compliance, reduce multiple taxation, and protect low-income earners, with implementation scheduled for January 1, 2026.

However, controversy soon engulfed the reforms, with allegations that key provisions were altered after passage by the National Assembly. Opposition politicians, civil society groups, and the Nigerian Bar Association challenged the laws, citing threats to legislative integrity, public trust, and economic certainty.

The implications for 2026 are profound. Businesses and investors now face an environment of legal ambiguity, where compliance obligations are unclear, and the potential for retroactive enforcement looms large.

Four major corporate deals in December 2025 – Femi Otedola’s Geregu Power exit, Tony Elumelu’s Seplat Energy acquisition, Otedola’s First HoldCo stake increase, and Aradel Holdings’ ND Western consolidation – were clearly timed to beat the anticipated higher taxes. The flurry of pre-implementation transactions underscores how uncertainty can distort investment behavior, accelerate deal-making, and reward players with liquidity and strategic foresight.

Beyond corporate manoeuvres, ordinary Nigerians may feel the brunt of the tax changes. If implementation is perceived as opaque or unfair, mass protests could erupt in early 2026, particularly from middle-class earners, professional associations, and SMEs.

Economists warn that poorly managed rollout may stoke inflationary pressures, disrupt consumer markets, and undermine confidence in fiscal policy. The government’s ability to communicate the reforms clearly, enforce them consistently, and address grievances will determine whether the laws stimulate economic growth or trigger social unrest.

14. Dangote Refinery begins nationwide fuel distribution

On August 15, 2025, Dangote Refinery commenced nationwide distribution of petrol and diesel, deploying thousands of CNG-powered trucks to supply fuel directly to marketers and major consumers. The rollout aimed to reduce logistics costs, stabilize prices, and diminish reliance on intermediaries in Nigeria’s downstream sector. Analysts hailed the move as transformative, with the potential to improve fuel availability and achieve a more balanced market across states, but it attracted so much opposition from the labor unions leading to strikes.

By 2026, the refinery’s operations are expected to influence fuel pricing and competition dramatically. The introduction of MRS Oil Nigeria – part of Dangote Group – led by Sayyu Dantata, as a key off-taker, has sparked a price war with NNPC outlets. Retail petrol prices dropped sharply, forcing competitors to adjust or risk losing market share. Economists argue that this duopoly-driven competition will ultimately benefit consumers through lower prices while eroding abnormal profit margins previously enjoyed by market players.

The refinery’s nationwide reach also has broader implications for industrial productivity and inflation. Stable fuel supply at predictable prices can lower production costs for manufacturers, enhance transport reliability, and mitigate the impact of inflationary pressures linked to energy shortages. Over time, Dangote Refinery’s dominance may encourage further private investment in downstream infrastructure, accelerate energy sector reform, and push the government to revisit pricing and subsidy policies, potentially shaping Nigeria’s economic trajectory in 2026.

15. New INEC chairman, electoral reforms and the credibility test

The appointment of Professor Joash Amupitan as the new chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in October 2025, marks a pivotal institutional transition heading into 2026. Coming after a decade-long tenure by Professor Mahmood Yakubu, Amupitan inherits an electoral system shaped by technological innovation – most notably BVAS and IReV – but also weighed down by public distrust, logistical weaknesses, and allegations of politicization. President Bola Tinubu’s charge that electoral integrity must be “beyond reproach” underscores both the expectations and the pressure confronting the new INEC leadership. With off-season governorship elections and the 2027 general elections looming, 2026 will be the year in which Amupitan’s reformist intent is either validated or questioned.

The Osun and Ekiti governorship elections in 2026 will serve as the first major credibility tests for the new INEC chairman, even more so than Anambra did in 2025. How INEC handles issues, such as voter allocation disparities, election security, result transparency, enforcement against vote buying, and post-election dispute management will shape public confidence ahead of 2027. Beyond election-day logistics, Amupitan’s leadership will be judged by whether INEC pushes for deeper legal and institutional reforms, strengthens internal independence, and leverages technology to counter disinformation and manipulation. In 2026, INEC will either emerge as a reformed democratic pillar, or remain trapped in the cycle of cautious incrementalism.

16. Constitutional amendments and the challenge of federalism

Nigeria’s constitutional amendment process enters a decisive phase in 2026, following extensive zonal hearings and consultations concluded in 2025. The National Assembly’s proposals – covering state police, devolution of powers, fiscal federalism, electoral reforms, judicial strengthening and inclusive governance, gender representation – reflect long-standing public demands to recalibrate Nigeria’s decentralized system. The ambition to complete parliamentary voting before party primaries highlights the political urgency attached to the reforms, especially as insecurity, economic hardship and governance failures continue to fuel citizen discontent.

However, 2026 will test whether these reform efforts can survive the politically demanding phase of state assembly ratification.

Securing approval from, at least, 24 state Houses of Assembly will require elite consensus that may prove elusive, particularly on contentious issues like state police and local government autonomy.

As election calculations intensify, some governors and political blocs may resist reforms perceived to weaken their leverage. Whether Nigeria emerges from 2026 with a significantly altered constitutional order, or another missed opportunity, will depend on political will, elite bargaining, and sustained public pressure.

17. Political flashpoints: Rivers, Kano and Lagos as theatres of power struggle

Rivers State is poised to remain a major political flashpoint in 2026, as the unresolved power struggle between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and former governor Nyesom Wike continues to reverberate. What began as an internal state crisis has increasingly taken on national dimensions, with the potential to place Wike on a collision course with President Tinubu.

Control of Rivers, strategically important both politically and economically, will shape alignments within the ruling APC and influence broader calculations ahead of 2027. The trajectory of this conflict in 2026 may redefine the balance between federal authority and powerful regional actors.

In Kano, the political realignment drama involving Governor Abba Yusuf and his estranged godfather, Rabiu Kwankwaso, is set to intensify. Yusuf’s anticipated defection to the APC and Kwankwaso’s likely migration to ADC could fracture the state’s political landscape, setting up a high-stakes contest between elite defections and grassroots loyalty.

While APC may consolidate institutional power, Kwankwaso’s enduring mass support suggests that Kano could become a battleground for sympathy politics and protest votes. Lagos, though less volatile, will continue to function as the nerve centre of elite negotiations and coalition-building, shaping strategic decisions across party lines.

18. Off-season elections, voter apathy and democratic fatigue

The 2025 Anambra governorship election exposed deep structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s electoral democracy – low turnout, voter apathy, monetization of politics, incumbency advantage and uneven logistical deployment.

As Nigeria moves into 2026, these challenges remain unresolved and risk becoming further entrenched. Despite high PVC collection rates, voter disengagement, particularly among youth, signals a crisis of confidence that off-season elections in Osun and Ekiti will either mitigate or worsen. These elections will test whether lessons from Anambra are meaningfully applied or merely acknowledged rhetorically.

The Osun governorship election, in particular, carries significant national implications. With Ademola Adeleke now in Accord Party enjoying popular appeal, and APC determined to reclaim the state using its political machinery, the contest may offer a preview of 2027 dynamics. Ekiti, by contrast, appears more predictable, with the incumbent APC governor favored to return.

Together, these elections will test INEC’s operational credibility, the effectiveness of security deployments, the role of CSOs, and the judiciary’s post-election posture. How Nigeria manages these polls in 2026 will shape democratic confidence heading into the general elections.

19. Party primaries and the road to 2027

The conduct of party primaries in 2026 will be one of the most consequential political developments of the year. In the APC, President Tinubu’s candidacy is largely uncontested, allowing the ruling party to focus on consolidating power through defections and institutional control.

The real drama lies within the opposition ADC, where a fierce contest is expected between Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and potentially Rotimi Amaechi. While Atiku appears to hold the organisational and elite advantage, Obi’s appeal among youth and urban voters remains potent.

The outcome of ADC’s primaries will determine whether the opposition enters 2027 fragmented or unified. A scenario in which elder statesmen persuade Atiku to step aside could transform the political landscape, but such an outcome remains uncertain.

More critical than who emerges candidate is whether ADC can survive the primaries without splintering – a perennial weakness of Nigerian opposition coalitions. In 2026, Nigeria’s political future will hinge not just on party strength, but on whether opposition forces can channel widespread public dissatisfaction into a coherent, credible electoral alternative.