Certificate scandal claims Nnaji as Mbah’s rumoured APC defection reshapes Enugu politics

The sudden resignation of Geoffrey Uche Nnaji, Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology, over allegations of certificate forgery has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political establishment, particularly in Enugu State, where the development is reshaping alignments ahead of 2027.

Nnaji’s resignation, confirmed on Tuesday by presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga, followed an investigation that accused him of presenting forged academic certificates to secure public office.

“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has accepted the resignation of Geoffrey Uche Nnaji, the Minister of Innovation, Science, and Technology, following some allegations against him,” Mr. Onanuga wrote in a statement posted on X. “He resigned in a letter thanking the President for allowing him to serve Nigeria.”

Though Nnaji maintained that he had been a victim of political blackmail, his exit closes one chapter of scandal but has opened another: the fast-changing dynamics of power and party strategy in Enugu, a key South East battleground state.

Nnaji’s fall leaves the Tinubu administration with a crucial opening in a region where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has long struggled for acceptance.

For years, the South East has been a fortress of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and, more recently, a hotbed of support for Peter Obi’s Labour Party. Yet with President Tinubu’s determination to secure broader legitimacy for his re-election bid in 2027, the Nnaji vacancy presents a chance to recalibrate APC’s foothold in the zone.

Sources within the APC national secretariat suggest that attention is now firmly on Enugu Governor Peter Mbah, whose rumoured defection to the ruling party has gathered momentum in recent months.

Mbah, elected in 2023 under the PDP banner in an election many believe was manipulated in favour, has faced persistent speculation about his political future. His closeness to key figures in Tinubu’s camp, combined with his desire to insulate his government from federal hostility, has fuelled talk of a possible switch.

APC remains unpopular among the masses in Enugu, and while Mbah is believed to be many to have manipulated his way into office after a contentious election they argue was actually won by Chijioke Edeoga, then candidate of the Labour Party, his impressive performance as governor has won him grassroot support.

His infrastructure drive is repositioning Enugu as a regional hub, but residents complain of heavy taxation.

Already, insiders say he has opened back-channel discussions with APC leaders, with the Nnaji scandal further tilting the balance.

“Enugu cannot afford to be isolated at the federal level,” said a senior political aide to Mbah, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The governor believes the best way to secure development funds and federal presence is to work more closely with the President’s party.”

While Mbah has not publicly confirmed his intentions, his silence amid the swirling speculation is widely seen as strategic.

Much of the repositioning in Enugu, it was gathered, is being orchestrated under the watchful eye of Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma. As Chairman of the Progressives Governors Forum and the most influential APC leader in the South East, Uzodimma has assumed the role of political gatekeeper in the region.

With Nnaji out of the picture, Uzodimma is expected to play a decisive role in recommending a replacement minister. Analysts believe he will press for a figure loyal to his camp, ensuring the federal cabinet slot becomes a tool for expanding APC’s reach in Enugu.

But Mbah’s defection to APC is a gamble. Feedback from the streets suggests he would win a second term under PDP without much effort.Joining APC means he will alienate the masses who remain strongly anti APC, but he will gain federal backing which in more recent time, has proved to be key decider of elections.

PDP faces crisis of survival

For the PDP, Nnaji’s resignation and the potential defection of Mbah could accelerate what already looks like an existential crisis in the South East. Once the dominant party in the region, PDP has in recent years been squeezed by Obi’s Labour Party insurgency on one side and APC’s federal leverage on the other.

In Enugu, the situation is particularly fragile. Mbah remains the party’s highest-ranking elected figure in the state, and his exit would leave the PDP machinery dangerously weakened.

Tinubu’s 2027 strategy in focus

Behind these manoeuvres lies a larger calculation: President Tinubu’s ambition to reshape Nigeria’s political map before 2027.

The APC leadership recognises that to secure a second term, Tinubu must reduce the perception of the party as a northern-western alliance and expand meaningfully into the South East and South South.

Enugu, with its history of elite-driven politics and centrality to Igbo identity, is a strategic entry point. A defected sitting governor backed by a strong APC structure would provide Tinubu with a symbolic and practical victory.

Fallout for Nnaji and the politics of scandal

For Geoffrey Nnaji, the scandal marks a humiliating end to what could have been a high-profile ministerial career. His claim that he was the victim of political persecution will likely resonate with some supporters, but in Nigeria’s unforgiving political culture, allegations of certificate forgery are rarely survivable.

His resignation may also serve as a cautionary tale in a country where academic qualifications remain both politically prized and frequently falsified. Only last year, controversies over forged or questionable certificates trailed several elected officials, including high-ranking lawmakers.

Yet beyond personal disgrace, the timing of Nnaji’s fall has intertwined with wider strategic currents in Enugu, ensuring his name will be remembered less for his short tenure as minister than for the political realignment it triggered.

A contest of survival and ambition

As things stand, Enugu politics is set for a stormy period. PDP is scrambling to hold on to its structures, while Labour Party, still buoyed by Obi’s cult-like following, senses an opportunity to grow further if PDP weakens. APC, meanwhile, is poised to exploit its ministerial vacancy and Uzodimma’s influence to lure Mbah across the aisle.

The result is a contest where personal survival, party ambition, and federal strategy are colliding in ways that could reshape the South East ahead of 2027.