Bayelsa Guber poll: APC on ascendancy as Sylva, Dickson square up in proxy war

Call it a clash of the titans and you would not be wrong. Saturday’s gubernatorial contest in Bayelsa State has all the trappings of a two-horse race. On the surface, Senator Douye Diri is flag-bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP while Chief David Lyon is wielding that of the All Progressives Congress, APC. But for those in the know, the contest, in many respects, can be likened to a replay of the equally very testy 2015 gubernatorial contest in the state that had featured Governor Seriake Dickson of the PDP and Timipre Sylva of the APC. And at the moment also, both gladiators and old warhorses are pushing all stops towards ensuring that the ultimate prize is eventually theirs.

This time around however, a number of variables seem to have changed. The APC, which had only then in 2015 snatched the presidency from the PDP after a Pyrrhic contest, has since consolidated itself at the centre as the party of power even as the PDP, after two defeats at that level, is now compelled to hold the shorter end of the stick and serve as the nation’s opposition king.

But even more troubling are the changes at the state level. Unlike what obtained in the course of the first sixteen years after the return to civil rule – when the PDP literally held sway as about the only party in town – today, the field has very clearly been thrown wide open, with many pundits even affirming that it is now the erstwhile hunter that is now being hunted!

Evidence of this could be seen recently when Business Hallmark undertook a tour of the state. It was generally a somber mood that could be felt all over even when campaigns, political activities and horse-trading were taking place on the sidelines, and ahead of the forthcoming gubernatorial polls.

Part of the challenge had to do with the flooding incidents that had been ravaging the state in the past few months. With many houses and business premises in Yenagoa and several other towns and hamlets in the state at the receiving end of the floods which has very heavily affected the Niger-Delta state, many have seen their lives, livelihoods and assets seriously affected.

When Business Hallmark called at the NUJ Centre/Guest House located in the city centre, we were told that about all the lodgings there had been taken up, principally by people who have had to leave their water-ravaged homes in the lower-lying parts of the capital city. In another hotel where we finally found lodgings, arrangements had to be made with a car service to get us in and out of the premises as the floods had made it impossible to go in and out on absolute dry grounds.

It is not only individuals and private businesses that are affected. Many public schools in the state have remained closed for weeks while even the sites of multi-billion naira government projects have similarly been affected by the floods.

Periscoping Dickson’s scorecard

But much more than the ravages of the floods, some analysts aver, the PDP camp also has to deal with what they term the less-than-satisfactory scorecard of the Seriake Dickson administration.

Indeed some say that it is actually Dickson’s poor management of the affairs of the state across many levels that have resulted in the very frightening situation today where many pollsters are declaring the contest as indeed a very close call. For a state that was routinely classified as a hitherto very safe PDP state, the details of this deterioration surely need to be explored; and explained.

Part of the challenge that Dickson and the PDP are facing seem to emanate from the fact that at a point the outgoing governor may have felt so politically secure that he did not sufficiently carry along other major political stakeholders in his party and state. One source remarked about how political appointees were complaining of being treated like houseboys and that even this state of disrespect may have stretched farther to rub off on former President Goodluck Jonathan whom many say has a love-lost relationship with Dickson at the moment.

Indeed, feelers are that the APC/Sylva/Lyon camp has very heavily infiltrated the Jonathan camp to the extent that leading members of the family, household and extended political, cultural and social family of the former President are said to be unapologetic backers of the APC gubernatorial campaign. Indeed, some uncorroborated feelers are that the immediate Jonathan household support for the APC candidate, David Lyon, is being championed by former First Lady, Patience Jonathan, with some claims even suggesting that through her continuing mother-son relationship with Sylvia, some of her assets that had reportedly been the subject of disputes may have been quietly returned to her. Attempts to confirm the actual position of things in this respect from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, at the weekend were unsuccessful.

Jonathan’s cross, PDP’s hurt

As for the former President himself, his lack of enthusiasm for the PDP slate in the state somewhat came to the fore in his conspicuous absence from the mega-rally that had been put together by the PDP campaign.

While some say that part of the Jonathan pain has to do with Dickson’s abandonment of several projects Jonathan had begun as governor, including the yet stalemated Yenagoa 3-Star Hotel project that Business Hallmark was shown in the course of the visit, others say that the last straw may have been the opposition by the outgoing governor to the Timi Alaibe candidacy during the last primaries exercise. As Jonathan reportedly told the governor, Alaibe, a former Managing Director of the NDDC, was the best man to be supported in the greater interest of the state. Dickson demurred, preferring in the view of some to support the rather more pliant Senator Douye Diri to replace him while also using the opportunity to step in and take over the Senator’s seat at the Red Chambers.

With Dickson insisting on satisfying himself, both Alaibe and Jonathan have since given the campaign a wide shoulder, a situation that remained at press time despite attempts to broker peace.

A badly traumatized PDP

Underscoring the depth of the challenge however is the fact that the PDP at the national level has also seemingly remained highly fractionalized for some time now. In what observers say is the party’s continuing challenge in fitting into its new role as an opposition party, the party has not been able to find and deploy and enduring trouble shooting mechanism to address problems as the divisions within its fold in the lead-up to Saturday’s elections. This some say is also why one of its leading lights, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State was also conspicuously missing at the Yenagoa rally.

On the specific errors in rendering of Dickson, Business Hallmark spoke with a former spokesman for Dickson who is now a leading light in the APC campaign. According to him, the real crisis is that Dickson betrayed the people as he reneged on about all of the promises that he had made ahead of his coming to power.

“We had promised the people a lot of things. We had said we would address issues of roads. We had also talked of bringing in improvements into the schools system, healthcare, and the power arena. We talked about caring for our people, for workers, for pensioners. We failed them.”

Also taking a swipe at Dickson last week, the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, Adams Oshiomhole, accused the Bayelsa State Governor, Seriake Dickson, of frittering away close to N100bn of the state’s resources on the construction of the runway for the state airport.

Oshiomhole was speaking in Abuja after meeting with governors Atiku Bagudu and Mohammed Badaru in the company of former Minister of State for Agriculture, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri.

“You know the fact that Bayelsa airport has been flooded. Is it Buhari that flooded the airport? It is flooded because the runway is below the ground level. They ought to have carried out proper survey. So, the runway is flooded because it was not built properly.

“We challenge Dickson to use his own plane for a test and land on that airport. We challenge Dickson to prove that, when the airport was flooded, the flood was caused by Buhari. We challenge him to show the kind of control tower he has built.”

“Was it Buhari that asked him to inflate the contract because there are different versions of the actual cost? I put it to my dear friend and brother, Dickson, that that contract has entered the Guinness Book of Record as the most expensive runway ever built anywhere in the world.

“So, the truth is, he’s in trouble. He cannot tell his people why he would spend close to N100bn for a facility such as that. Yet, he himself cannot land on it,” Oshiomhole remarked.

PDP embattled!

Political watchers say that unlike how the APC has been able to capitalize on the crisis within the ruling PDP, Dickson and his fellow drivers of the PDP campaign have not been able to generate much traction in their own counter-efforts.

One such failing has to do with their inability to get the embittered former Speaker of the State House of Assembly and Minister of State for Agriculture, Heineken Lokpobiri to get his supporters to vote for the PDP in the forthcoming polls.

Now established as a chieftain of the APC Lokpobiri, who was one of the governorship aspirants during the party’s primaries was one of those who not only very vigorously protested the primaries process that saw to Lyon’s emergence as party flagbearer, he also went to court to seek a reversal of the situation.

When Business Hallmark reached out to his camp in the course of the Yenagoa visit, we were told that they were very confident that Lokpobiri would triumph at the end of the day. Some of that progress seemingly came days ago when the Federal High Court set November 14 as the ruling date on his challenge.

But underscoring the fact that even the PDP may not benefit substantially from whichever way the pendulum swings in court on that day, Lokpobiri himself has now being encouraged by the party’s High Command to publicly direct his supporters to vote for the party no matter what. And he is playing along.

“The reason why I’m here is to pay a courtesy call on National Chairman having been spoken on the party which I have a great respect for and the president. I’m a very strong member of APC and I came today to formally tell our Chairman and to speak to Nigerians, in particular, the electorate in Bayelsa that all of them should vote for APC, regardless of what will happen in the matter that is fixed for judgment on Nov. 14, 2019.

“I told my supporters, even before I came for this visit that no matter what happens, I will remain in APC having served as minister under this administration. There is no way because of the outcome of the governorship primary that will make me to leave APC.

“We are working and campaigning at different levels. I always advise that anybody that has grievances the only place to go and resolve those grievances is the court. So, whatever that is happening in the matter that is pending in the court is not an infraction on any part of our party’s constitution,” Lokpobiri said.

Can the PDP be saved?

A day is a lot of time in politics and there are still several days before voting. But for days to count there have to be plans and measures. Can the PDP be saved? Yes. But what are the plans and measures?

Whichever way the events eventually pan out, one thing is manifestly clear: should the PDP lose out in its natural home base, it will be more on account of the mismanagement of its internal politics and not really on account of the fact that the natural political sensibilities of Bayelsa have changed. This much was admitted by several people we met who are vigorously rooting for the APC candidate at the moment, and as attested to by Johnson Sobokiri:

‘We understand exactly what we are doing. Bayelsa is naturally not APC. On a good day, we would not go with an APC candidate. But the issues in the election today are not too grand: they are about the sustaining the shenanigans of Dickson and defeating him?’

But in doing this, would Bayelsans not be cutting their nose to spite their face? Our recent political history is a guide.

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#BayelsaDecides: How the parties stand

With close to a quarter of the voting population, the November 16 governorship elections in Bayelsa State would ultimately be won and lost in and around the state capital, Yenagoa.

Base of the elite, a lot of horse-trading, cash transfers and strong-arm tactics are expected to come into play in the days ahead.

Some of the critical interests here would be ex-militants and the security agencies. INEC officials and electoral observers are also a factor. It is indeed a very tough call and it is clearly not unexpected that there would be a very likely contest of the eventual election outcome.

Yenagoa is the local government council area with the highest number of registered voters, a princely 199,895 in a sparsely populated state. Of this number, a fairly very impressive 180,263 had already collected their voting cards (PVCs) about a fortnight to the contest.

Outside of the capital, feelers are that the APC’s Lyon may presently have the edge in the Southern Ijaw area. That council accounts for 165,449 registered voters, with 164,844 PVCs collected. The party also maintains some lead in Nembe which has 92,717 registered voters, Brass with 67,804 registered voters and Ogbia with 109.903 registered voters. Former President Jonathan hails from Ogbia.

In Ekeremor which has 125,189 registered voters, the expected PDP sweep on account of the political weight of juggernauts like Rt. Hon Peremobowei Ebebi, two-time Deputy Governor and two-time Speaker of the State House of Assembly has been seemingly neutralized. Ebebi, who served as Director- General of the Timi Alaibe Campaign Organization, is clearly now in bed with the APC

In Sagbama where 105,705 voters have presently collected their PVCs), and Kolokuma|Opokuma which is home to Alaibe and where 50,477 voters are PVCs-clutching, a lot is hanging on the final moves to be made by son-of-the-soil gladiators like Douye Diri and Timi Alaibe.

In all some, 867,088 eligible voters are expected to cast their votes of which only 33,874 were yet to collect their PVCs a fortnight ago.
There are eight LGAs in Bayelsa State.