ADC questions INEC’s Southwest pre-registration figures, demands forensic audit

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has raised concerns over what it described as “statistically implausible” figures in the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) first-week report on new Permanent Voter Card (PVC) pre-registrations, warning that the discrepancies could undermine confidence in the electoral process.

In a statement issued on Wednesday by its National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, the party said the unusually high numbers recorded in the South-West, particularly in Osun State, were troubling and required urgent clarification.

“According to INEC’s report, Osun State alone recorded 393,269 pre-registrations within seven days. For context, the state added only 275,815 new voters between 2019 and 2023, a period of four years. Now, in just one week, Osun has supposedly registered more people than it did in an entire electoral cycle,” Abdullahi said.

The ADC argued that these figures defied historical trends in voter participation within the state.

“Even during its peak political mobilisation in 2022, Osun never produced more than 823,124 votes in the governorship election. Yet, by some miracle, almost 20 percent of all eligible adults in the state have rushed to register in a single week. This is not only unusual; it is statistically implausible,” the statement added.

The party also highlighted regional disparities, noting that the South-West alone accounted for 848,359 pre-registrations — about 67 percent of the national total. In stark contrast, the entire South-East recorded just 1,998, while the North-East contributed 6.1 percent.

“Three states – Osun, Lagos, and Ogun – account for 54.2 percent of all pre-registrations nationwide. Meanwhile, five states combined – Ebonyi, Imo, Enugu, Abia, and Adamawa – barely recorded 4,153, or 0.2 percent of the total,” Abdullahi observed.

The ADC warned that the figures could indicate either a technical failure in INEC’s digital registration system or deliberate manipulation.

“These fantastic figures suggest either another technical ‘glitch’ in INEC’s system or a more troubling scenario involving data manipulation to prepare the ground for a sinister electoral agenda. In either case, INEC owes Nigerians an explanation,” it said.

Emphasising that the voter register is the bedrock of credible elections, the party cautioned that any compromise at the registration stage could have grave consequences.

“The voter register is the foundation of the entire electoral process. If this foundation is compromised, it casts doubt on the legitimacy of the elections,” Abdullahi warned.

The ADC therefore called on INEC to urgently conduct and publish a comprehensive forensic audit of the first-week pre-registration data. It demanded a detailed state-by-state breakdown of both physical and online registrations, alongside server logs, bandwidth allocation, and regional access reports for the registration portal during the period under review.

“History shows that unresolved questions about the voter register can have consequences beyond politics. They touch on national stability itself,” the statement concluded.