ADC and Obidients’ delusion

Mr. Peter Obi’s year-end speech to mark his membership of the ADC is one of the best and greatest effort at leadership preparation any Nigerian has made. It quickly reminds one of late Chief Awolowo, who, arguably, was the best of his generation. But preparation alone, and having good ideas of the problems, is not enough, as his case also proved. Nigeria is a complex society and normal political calculations often don’t pan out as expected.

But the Obidients, the urban political support base of PO in the 2023 election, think differently. They have already started a campaign of Obi or nothing for the ADC ticket, which could either be a subtle strategy to put pressure on Atiku, and other stakeholders in the party, or a portent threat on the party. Either way, it is a wrong and futile effort, and fundamentally flawed, and therefore, will fail.

Dynamics of Power

PO may be prepared and popular, but the political structure, and balance of power, is not ready for him yet. The system is still too toxic, violent, and corrupt to permit an Obi presidency; that in itself will be a contradiction. There are several factors involved in this matter: one, is the APC as a party; two, is the personality of President Tinubu; three, is the Igbo question in Nigeria, and finally, is the nature of power rotation between North and South.

We can’t go into detail on these counts at this stage, but what happened in Lagos in 2019 and 2023 is a foretaste of what may happen again; who will stop it? APC is a corrupt and lawless party; only the end – power – matters to them. President Tinubu doesn’t need further introduction. The Igbo are still a conquered and suspected group in Nigeria; remember the fate of Ukiwe, Ekwueme, and Jonathan.

Igbo and the North

Finally, the North is still aggrieved with the South over Jonathan’s usurpation of their term after president Yar’Adua’s death. There’s a strong sentiment in the North to balance the score in spite of having dominated leadership under the military. This shows that the Obidients don’t understand Nigeria. We have to change the present power arrangement to give Obi a chance by conceding the Jonathan term to them, and begin a fresh arrangement with Obi in 2031.

Obidients’ analysis, and the promise of a term, is idealistically simplistic. It will help Tinubu to continue. Obi is popular, and the economic conditions are bad, but our elections are not founded on popular mandate. This is our present reality and to ignore it is delusional. So, the immediate challenge is how do we secure the vote and election results with the APC in full control of the apparati of state?

Again, Obi, an Igbo, cannot stand against Tinubu, a sitting president, who has shown willingness and capacity to manipulate and corrupt the system backed by the other arms of government. It shows the Obidients as immature, politically naive, and ignorant of Nigeria. He must not swallow the poison chalice of this disgruntled, rabid, and amorphous rabble in a hurry to change Nigeria; it never happens that way.

Danger of Short Termism

The best bet of getting Obi to lead Nigeria is to enter government first, win the confidence of all Nigerians, and continue from where they stopped. Obi in government is far better for Nigeria than outside it for any reasons, especially if Atiku should do one term. Why should PO be the one to do one term, instead of negotiating for Atiku to do so? Obidients should please answer the  question? What will he achieve in four years, if our objective is reforming the country?

It seems that what’s driving this campaign by Obidients is opportunism – to have access to government, rather than realpolitik. That’s desperation, and supporting it is self-defeatist. Atiku’s one term because of age and equity will be more acceptable to generality of Nigerians than Obi’s, who is younger and expected to stay longer. If Nigerians can accept a possibility of a Tinubu’s return, in spite of the present hardship, why not Atiku for a change? All the attacks by APC hatchet men have been against Obi, and he has not even won the ticket yet. What will happen if he eventually does?

Opportunity Lost Forever

If Obi loses the opportunity of 2031, when will he contest again, 2039? 13 years from now, as the North will definitely push for their eight years. Do you know who will be alive then? Obi is 65 now plus 13 years, he will be 78, as Atiku now. Insisting on 2027, as the Obidients are doing, is short termism, which in politics always fails; that’s why the North always prevail – they think long term. Tinubu becoming president is a function of such thinking; it gives you time to be strategic.

Obidients’ orchestrated campaign and threat of abandoning him otherwise is too early, premeditated, and will likely fail, because it’s borne out of anger and ignorance. They should leave all the cards open and take whatever comes to them as occasion demands; that’s realism. It is a personal decision to decide who to vote for in an election, which is guaranteed by the constitution; that choice is never collective. Not all Obidients will dump Obi for any reasons.

So, they should not foreclose other outcomes by threat and intimidation. Nobody owns Obi, he wants to lead Nigeria and Nigerians should make him president, not a nihilistic bunch. He became governor without the Obidients, he can also be president without them.