2027: Odds mount against anti-Tinubu coalition

As Nigeria inches toward the 2027 general elections, political realignments and strategic maneuvering are already reshaping the landscape. Key opposition figures, particularly in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP), hope to forge a formidable coalition capable of unseating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. 

But that ambition is increasingly being undermined by mounting internal crises and external forces, high-profile defections, and competing ambitions – most notably that of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is presently the face of the coalition move.

While many Nigerians still nurse frustrations over Tinubu’s economic reforms, the opposition’s failure so far to present a united and coherent front is rapidly eroding public confidence in any viable alternative. What seemed just months ago like a possible convergence of opposition forces now appears to be an unraveling dream.

The idea of a mega coalition – a united front of PDP, LP, and other smaller parties – gained traction following the 2023 general elections. The results, which saw Tinubu winning with just over one-third of the vote, suggested that a combined opposition could defeat him in 2027.

However, instead of building momentum, the opposition has stumbled into its own set of crises. Internal divisions, and conflicting presidential ambitions have cast a shadow over coalition talks.

“This is a classic case of the opposition snatching defeat from the jaws of victory,” said political analyst Dr. Chuka Eze of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka. “With the economic challenges under Tinubu, the ground is fertile for a serious challenge. But they are too divided to capitalize on it.”

The PDP’s Fragmentation

The PDP, once the dominant force in Nigerian politics, is bleeding influence and credibility. Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, recently led the entire PDP structure in his state into the All Progressives Congress (APC), citing alignment with the national leadership.

In Akwa Ibom, Governor Umo Eno hinted at a similar move using a metaphor that has since gone viral. “If you’re flying in an aircraft, and the pilot is going one way, it’s foolish to jump out mid-air,” he told a gathering of party faithful—widely interpreted as a signal of his intention to align with Tinubu’s government.

Enugu is another flashpoint. Gov. Peter Mbah is rumored to be plotting a defection to the APC. Though yet to make a public move, insiders claim he is under increasing pressure, especially as Uche Nnaji—Tinubu’s Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology, and a former gubernatorial candidate—is already mobilizing a media campaign team to position himself for the 2027 governorship race.

“Mbah’s hands are tied,” said a senior PDP official in the state, who requested anonymity. “On one hand, he’s attracted by the perks of joining the ruling party. On the other, Uche Nnaji’s ambition is making it hard to negotiate his entry.”

LP: A House Divided

Labour Party, which enjoyed a meteoric rise in 2023 due to Peter Obi’s candidacy, is also embroiled in crisis. The battle for control between the Julius Abure-led national executive and several splinter factions has weakened the party’s organizing power.

Furthermore, some of its 2023 momentum appears to have fizzled out. The LP failed to retain its base in many legislative by-elections, and internal wrangling has exposed its lack of political depth.

“The Labour Party was a movement during the elections, but movements don’t last without structure,” noted Lagos-based columnist, Toyin Aluko. “They are now seeing the consequences of building a campaign on passion alone.”

APGA Aligns with Tinubu

Even smaller parties that could have lent strength to the opposition coalition are moving in the opposite direction. The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), a party with strong roots in the South-East, has already thrown its weight behind Tinubu.

Gov. Charles Soludo of Anambra, APGA’s highest-ranking official, made it clear during a recent stakeholders’ meeting that the party would not antagonize the federal government, insisting that “national alignment” was necessary for development.

This stance has effectively removed APGA from any meaningful opposition bloc and deepened the sense that Tinubu is succeeding in balkanizing potential ahead of 2027.

A Poisoned Chalice

Economist and political activist, Prof. Pat Utomi on May 5, launched the ‘Big Tent Coalition Shadow Government’, designed to serve as a credible opposition to President Tinubu’s administration.

According to Utomi, the new body draws its membership from a cross-section of Nigeria’s opposition parties, and is tasked with regularly scrutinizing government actions, identifying policy failures, and proposing alternative solutions in key areas including the economy, education, healthcare, infrastructure, law and order, and constitutional reform.

But in response, the Department of State Service (DSS) dragged him to court, and accused him of attempting to illegally usurp the executive powers of President Tinubu. The agency told the court that Prof. Utomi’s action was capable of destabilizing the country as it was intended to create chaos.

However, Utomi, reacted to the legal action in a post shared on his X account on Friday, by dismissing the allegations, while maintaining that he remained resolute in his commitment to democratic ideals.

“I am heartened by messages of solidarity from across Nigeria on this shadowy business of chasing shadows of shadow cabinet. Reminds me of the Nigeria I used to know. I want to thank all. It’s energizing some want to put together 500 lawyers to defend me against the DSS,” he said.

While Utomi’s push is gaining traction, perhaps the most complex obstacle to coalition building is the ambition of Atiku Abubakar, the perennial presidential contender and PDP stalwart. Atiku’s loyalists argue that he remains the most experienced and prepared opposition figure to challenge Tinubu.

But within both PDP and LP, there’s growing concern that another Atiku candidacy would alienate southern voters and reignite north-south tensions. Critics argue that if Atiku were to win in 2027, it would mark a premature return of power to the North—after only four years in the South under Tinubu.

“It’s a tough sell,” said Abuja-based political strategist, Ibrahim Mohammed. “Many southern leaders feel it would be unfair for the North to return to power so soon, especially when the South has only had one term.”

On the other hand, should Atiku choose to back Peter Obi, it would present a new set of political calculations. An Obi presidency could potentially mean 12 consecutive years of southern rule if he wins re-election—something that northern power brokers may be unwilling to accept.

A Tinubu’s Strategy in Motion

While the opposition flounders, Tinubu’s camp is methodically consolidating power. The President has launched several strategic appointments, infrastructure projects, and political settlements targeted at winning over opposition strongholds.

Analysts believe this is no coincidence. “The president is playing the long game,” said Bayo Onanuga, a veteran journalist and Tinubu’s ally. “He’s building alliances, where the opposition is weakest.”

His appointments have also been calibrated to appeal across regional lines. From appointing Nyesom Wike as FCT Minister to offering federal positions to PDP governors and key LP figures, Tinubu has effectively blurred the lines between the ruling party and its opposition.

Tinubu’s dominance is also becoming evident in the media and among political elite. With many opposition-leaning outlets now softening their stance and some influential civil society figures retreating into silence, the public square is being reshaped.

According to media scholar, Dr. Mercy Aigbe, of the University of Benin, “There’s been a subtle, but real shift in how Tinubu is covered. Critical voices are growing quieter, and that’s often a sign of elite capture.”

Even within the political class, few want to be seen as opposing a President, who controls access to appointments, contracts, and federal allocations. This fear is compelling many opposition politicians to either defect or remain passive.

The youth-led “Obidient” movement was a defining force in 2023, energizing the elections and pushing back against the old order. But that momentum has suffered from post-election disillusionment and the absence of sustained leadership.

Without a common cause or organized platform, the energy that once electrified campaign rallies has dissipated into fragmented online advocacy. Whether this force can be reactivated in 2027 remains uncertain.

“The youth are watching, but they feel betrayed,” said human rights activist Osas Egbon. “They saw their votes not translate into real change, and now they’re unsure whether to believe again.”

One potential wild card remains Nigeria’s diaspora and international observers. In 2023, Nigerian expatriates poured millions into crowdfunding and campaign support for opposition candidates. However, with the current disarray, foreign interest appears to be waning.

“There’s a growing perception that the opposition can’t get its act together,” said London-based lawyer, Amaka Udochi, who was part of a diaspora campaign group. “Until we see clarity and unity, it’s hard to rally behind them again.”

With less than two years to the 2027 elections, time is running out for the opposition to recalibrate. Political alliances in Nigeria are notoriously fluid, but the current trends favor Tinubu.

To build a meaningful coalition, the PDP and LP must settle their internal disputes, reach a consensus on presidential zoning, and decide whether Atiku or Obi—or perhaps a compromise candidate—should lead the charge.

Without such clarity and unity, the dream of a powerful opposition capable of challenging Tinubu may remain just that—a dream.