2019 Polls: A step backward (Column)

Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, INEC Chairman

By UCHE CHRIS

Say what you will, the outcome of the 2019 is a backward step for the country both in electoral management and economic development. Nigerians had believed that after the remarkable performance of the Prof. Jega led INEC in the 2015 election that brought President Buhari to power, he would improve on it, especially based on the Change mantra of its party. Alas, this election took Nigeria back to 2007 polls, which even the winner, late president Umaru YarAdua, admitted was flawed. But he improved it in the negative.
For most Nigerians, the election provided an opportunity to change their economic conditions which had plummeted since the coming of this government. By acts of commission and omission this government has made most Nigerians poorer. In the past four years the economy has not grown above two percent; indeed Nigeria spent 15 months of the period in recession – negative growth. Those hoping that things will get better should think again.
I am not a fan or supporter of President Buhari and may never be (speaking advisedly). But I knew he would win and called his victory a week before the postponement on February 16, 2019 (see And the winner is …in Businesshallmark). I knew he would win because the outcome had already been predetermined. In the previous article I gave reasons for his anticipated victory.
In simple terms, the government did not act before the election as if it mattered, but behaved as if it was already over – that he would continue in power nonetheless. First the move against the Chief Justice of Nigeria, CJN, Onoghen, was a careful strategy to preempt the outcome of the polls deriving from the calculations that the election would be contentious and the result contested with a major role for the Supreme Court in the process.
Justice Onoghen is not trusted by the government having been appointed against the president’s wish; so he already had an axe to grind with Buhari who refused to nominate him into the office. There are nine justices in the court and the CJN is expected to protect government interest when there is tie as was the case in the Yar’Adua election petition which he won with the vote of the then CJN IdrisKutigibased on the ‘’doctrine of necessity’’.
Second the refusal of Buhari to sign the severally amended and modified electoral act, which would have built on the gains of the 2015 performance, give legal backing to the use of card reader and prohibit the use of Incidence formwas a clear sign that government did not want to gamble with the election and therefore determined to win at all cost. Now everyone agrees that the election was far from being credible.
Third, there was a deliberate and concerted attempt to stifle the opposition of funds while bullion vans were carrying money for APC party leaders. A neutral leader would create a level playing field for all candidates and parties; this is the first step to a credible election – a credible election is not determined by what happens on polling day alone; but what happens before and after polling.
Finally the distribution of PVCs clearly indicated that the election was over before ballot opened. The lowest collection rate of PVC in the north was 78 percent, while the highest collection rate in the south was 56 percent helped by Lagos. It didn’t take much interrogation to know the outcome of the election.
Out of the 72.7 million collected PVCs as of February 2019, the Northwest had a total of 18,505,984 voters while the Southeast had 8,593,093. The North central had 10,786,965, while the North east zone had 10,229,015. The Southwest had the second highest number of PVCs collected with 14,926,800. The South South as a whole had 11,401,093 collected PVCs.
Despite the massive social media outbursts, when the North votes, it often votes massively and in a one-way direction. This is evident in Kano, Kaduna and Katsina where Buhari got over 1 million votes, which has remained so since 2003..
I am not enamoured of the second term nor impressed by the rhetoric of national unity and inclusive government he suggested in his victory speech. He promised us changed in 2015; change is progress – something good to better – a move forward. But he has at best delivered divisiveness, poverty, fear and mutual suspicion. Most international agencies had warned that a second term for Buhari will leave the nation worse off.
But I am not optimistic of the performance of the government not because of what he will or will not do; not at all. He has done enough to define his interest and objective. The next four years will not change the past four years. The first term was such as catastrophe for any discerning and patriotic Nigerian – a psychological and emotional torture of what Nigeria must not be but has unfortunately become.
It took Buhari just four years to dismantle all the structures, policies and reforms of the past 16 years; then you believe that it will take less than four years repair the damage of the past four years and make progress – that will be a miracle. What about the disunity, fears and suspicions? So where is the hope and optimism of change coming from –remember the change promised hasn’t even come.