2019 election: the morning after (Column) 

It is obvious to many Nigerians that things are not likely to change in the foreseeable future, if anything, they are likely to get worse. Steadily, Nigeria has been marching towards its doomsday with her eyes and ears wide open. The problems that beset the country are multiple. Sadly for us, we don’t seem to be able to fashion even a common view to these problems. Recently, I asked a group of Christian brethren to tell me what the Christian consensus on what constitutes good governance in Nigeria is. Shockingly, but not to my surprise, they were unable to agree on a common set of values which should underpin good governance. In other words, even within the church, there is a lack of unanimity of views on what should be the right approach to governance in Nigeria, beyond the glib mouthing of fear of God.

This lack of unanimity mirrors the vacuousness of the elite in Nigeria today. It is difficult, if not impossible, to find agreement on issues, it does matter how fundamental those issues are. In effect, there is a lack of elite consensus on what the issues about Nigeria are, and where such is lacking, there will not be agreement on the way forward. If we cannot agree on what the problems of the country are, and if therefore, we find it difficult to fashion out the right approach to solving these problems, it means that the country will continue to roll without destination. Like the drunken sailor, it will keep lumbering and groping……?  its way home.

Globally, Nigeria has emerged as a tragic irony. Tragic in the sense that all the indices point South, while the potential point North. Obviously, it is a richly endowed country, not just in material resources, but also in human resources. All over Nigeria, mineral deposits are large quantity. Nigeria is one of the few countries in the world where oil and gas abound in very lucrative commercial quantities. Other minerals like gold, aluminum, coal and so on, abound.

Nigerian land is also one of the most fertile in the world. So, agriculture can be made a very thriving business. Cash crops like cocoa, cassava, cotton, palm produce and fishing can be built into multi billion dollars thriving enterprises. The puzzle is that in spite of all these abundance of nature, Nigeria continues to wallow in extreme poverty, very underdeveloped, chaotic, crime infested, with very low literacy rate, besieged by civil strife and often times, resembling a Hobbesian society where life is short and often brutish.

The question which many befuddled observers, local and international often ask is, how did Nigeria get it so wrong? And why is she unable to pull herself by bootstraps and attain her due potential? Indeed, this question has become trite. Nevertheless, it underlines the befuddlement of the international community especially, over the sorry state of affairs in Nigeria.

Despite having some of the most enterprising people, not only in Africa, but globally, Nigeria continues to hobble, burdened by unemployment and general economic difficulties. For many years, Nigeria has continued to hobble along despite the overarching burden of these changes. The 80s and 90s where specially very challenging and yet, she managed to survive, and even in some instances, excel. It is for that singular ability that many Nigerians tend to be indifferent to the looming dangers ahead. They look back and assume that since Nigeria was able to remain standing despite her challenges in the past, she will continue to do so in the future. But therein lies the problem.

The world is rapidly changing. We have entered the fourth industrial revolution, a period of great uncertainties about the shape and dynamics of the emerging world. The realities that held true in the past do not seem likely to remain possible in the future. New forms, especially in science and technology, are upturning settled notions and recreating the world as we know it. Today, Nigeria is one of the most populous countries in the world. It has some of the fastest population growth rates. Many experts are projecting that by 2060, the country would have emerged as the third most populous in the world, behind only China and India. Such high number of people obviously add pressure and compound the problems. It is interesting to note that both India and China, which are projected to occupy the top position in the population perking order, are heavily industrialised nations. In fact, by 250, China would have become the largest economy in the world, with India among the top ranked. Given these realities, it’s obvious that both countries will be able to manage the challenges of opportunities which a large population will create, unlike Nigeria.

Nigeria has lagged behind in industrialisation and economic development. It is by every estimate, a third world country beset by systemic economic challenges. It has remained a mono product economy, which derives its main foreign exchange income from the exportation of crude oil. Part of the worries for Nigeria going forward is that crude oil is rapidly losing its luster as a top foreign exchange earner because of the emergence of electric car. There are projections that by the year 2030, over two-thirds of cars on roads globally would be electric cars. And a large percentage of that would be driver less cars. The advent of the electric car and alternative energy is increasingly putting pressure on the price of crude oil. It is noteworthy that the push for electric cars is coming mostly from energy dependent countries like China. The implication of this is that by the time electric car goes mainstream, China would drastically reduce its energy bill, which will in turn, put pressure on the cost of crude oil, Nigeria’s mainstay.

It is therefore clear that the future holds bleak prospects for Nigeria. It is the responsibility of government, both at the federal and state levels to begin to take seriously, the issue of recreating the Nigerian state, especially its economy, in order to save the future.

In the last four years of the Buhari administration, the highest number of jobs that has been created has been in the public sector. The private sector, which usually occupies a primary position in job creation, has lost grounds due to challenging economic circumstances. But as well meaning as the government is, the truth is that it cannot create enough jobs for the Nigerian people. As the old saying goes, government has no business in business. In other words, it is not the business of government to run businesses.

The core criticism against the Buhari administration by many well-meaning observers is its preference for state control of the economy. The state control model has since lost its appeal in various countries of the world. Most governments have come to the realisation that the best role for government in any economy is to regulate business and create the environment for it to thrive. For government to play directly in the business arena creates very serious problems, which with the benefit of our past history, are all too obvious.

The core challenge facing the government today is to liberate the operating environment and allow enterprise to flourish. The Nigerian operating environment is rather frigid. There is need for it to be drastically reviewed. It does not conduce to structured responses by the private sector.

Whereas it is good to build infrastructure as the government is trying to do, the provision of infrastructure is not enough. Whereas infrastructure is essential, and in fact, indispensable, it is still not enough to stimulate economic growth. The provision of infrastructure is mainly a component of overall economic development strategy. If the millions of Nigerian citizens are to be put to meaningful endeavours; if the millions of young school leavers are to be given meaningful employment; if the hundreds of thousands of Nigerian small and medium scale enterprises are to thrive, government must restrategise and jettison its anti market views.

There are various aspects of life in Nigeria crying for attention. Healthcare system is in shambles. Education system is severely challenged, and even social life is beleaguered. The quality of life index for Nigeria is abysmally low. From being the happiest country in the world about a decade ago, Nigeria has slumped to one of the most despairing places in the world. The Buhari administration has its duties cut out for it. Reset the Nigerian project by jettisoning all primordial and discriminatory tendencies and create a new beginning where every Nigerian will subscribe to any set of ethos and values. Indeed, it is in the best interest of President Buhari to do this. It is his only hope of building a sustainable economy and polity. If however, he succumbs to his basic instinct and remains fixated on his views, then sadly for him, the next four years will be worse than the last four years. And his epitaph would be an elegy.