…as governor loses out on second term bid
By Olusesan Laoye
President Bola Tinubu has finally played the ace in Rivers State politics against the incumbent governor, Siminalayi Fubara, over the succession bid for a second term, which showed where his interest lies. After declaring a state of emergency on April 24 to supposedly save him from possible impeachment, which actually handed power to Nyesom Wike to take over the party grassroots through a kangaroo local government election by the Administrator, Vice Admiral Ibok Obas, now an ambassador, again clearly against the Constitution, President Tinubu had pretended to play the impartial mediator by forcing Gov. Fubara to sign agreements that exposed him to political jeopardy.
With the APC handing power to governors to determine who becomes what in their states through consensus primary elections, Gov. Fubara’s case seemed to be the exception, where he had to face a pro-Wike screening panel that gave him a cold treatment.
While other governors are choosing the anointed ones, Fubara is being screened by a panel to ensure his ouster, which Wike had variously vowed to ensure. With the gate of defection firmly shut against him, he has nowhere to go to realise his ambition and challenge a Wike acolyte. Tinubu is no fool; he wants votes by crook or hook, and Wike delivered in 2023, and it seems from the recent thank-you tour of the state that he would deliver again.
With Kano State gone to NDC and the North-West in turmoil over the vice presidential slot and the harsh economic policies, Tinubu needs Rivers State like his life depends on it, and indeed it does. With what happened in Lagos in 2023, unless people are prevented from coming out to vote, history may repeat itself given the unpopularity of the government.
Political Humiliation
The latest incident, which made Governor Fubara walk out of the All Progressives Congress (APC) screening exercise, has brought more confusion into what is going to be the next political fate of the governor, as this gave room for speculation that he has dumped the APC, which he was forced to join when the crisis between him and Wike got to its climax. That decision, which people say, though not palatable and not willingly taken, saved him from losing power in this ongoing first term in office. However, his fellow governors have failed to defend him against an outsider and non-member of the party because of Tinubu.
It was also a step he had to take to appease Wike, who was bent on dealing with him and rendering him politically impotent, with the suspension from office as governor, which he fought hard to regain after the intervention of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
What is actually causing tension between him and Wike in Rivers State generally is the move to run for a second term, which it was argued was not part of the agreement reached for his suspension to be lifted and for him to come back as governor, only to complete his first term of this administration and bow out.
But Fubara, it was said, due to his performance and the love of the people clamouring that he should continue for another four years, made a move which prompted him to attend the screening exercise, where it was alleged he stormed out in annoyance.
But reports from his camp indicated that he did not storm out of the screening; rather, he was asked to “bow and go” without being interviewed, which they argued was a sign of respect for him as a serving governor and an indication that he was free to go and contest the party primary in the state.
Plan B
To those in his camp, that incident was misunderstood, and what also heightened the rumour that he had quit the APC was the defection of his brother, Blessing Fubara, which coincided with the period he allegedly stormed out of the APC screening in Abuja.
He himself had to quickly deny his exit from the APC, which, if not done with the speed he did it, could adversely affect his political future, as it would mean that he had picked a fight with the APC structure, which, though not favourable to him since he joined after his suspension, could frustrate him further.
This, it was said, would also mean that he is not in support of Tinubu’s second term, and this could cost him a lot.
However, political observers believed that the impromptu defection of his brother, Blessing, to NDC could be an alternative strategy to outwit the plan against him, as he could still contest under the NDC with his brother as a placeholder. Nobody knows under what conditions his brother registered in the NDC and what waivers may be granted the governor if he decides to defect.
The governor, while denying the rumours of his defection, said that he has not gone anywhere and that he is still solidly with the APC.
He said, “I have not gone anywhere. I’m still a strong and solid member of the APC and remain a member whatever happens. What is most important is supporting the overall interest of the party.”
He also said that his intentions had been misinterpreted and blown out of context, saying that there was a distinction between him and his brother, who defected to the NDC.
It was, however, argued that for the mere fact that the rumours spread so widely all over Nigeria, it was an indication that all is still not well in Rivers State and that the situation there is still very much fluid, since the APC in Rivers State has already said his “sins won’t be forgiven,” which means that his membership is just on paper, but his footing in the party is not recognised.
The question now is: will he get the APC ticket to run for a second term, and if he fails, will he still remain in the party to support whoever picks the ticket? Observers agree that he is toast and that power has changed hands. They are also looking towards his defection to the NDC to replace his brother, since the party’s convention is still ahead.
However, in order not to make it look as if the scenario connotes that he will be used and dumped, sources hinted that Fubara is playing along and has been boxed into an uncomfortable alliance with both the members and leaders of the APC to seek refuge within the ruling party, while he may be navigating other options that would continue to make him politically relevant in Rivers State.
Most people believe that in a free and fair election, Gov. Fubara will defeat a Wike candidate.
Concerning various reports, there are indications that Governor Fubara may be navigating a volatile political landscape occasioned by the controversy that trailed his brief but tense appearance at the APC screening in Abuja. Analysts believe it is only a matter of time before the bubble bursts because of Wike’s ego and his determination to show that he is in charge.
But his political associates believe that what will pay them is for him to continue to solidify and consolidate his position within the APC.
It was also argued that the hands of Wike are somehow tied, as some powerful elements within the Presidency, the party, and the state are strongly pleading for Governor Fubara to continue, saying that his continuation would translate to a big success for the party in Rivers State and the entire South-South.
As such, they all want Wike to soft-pedal on Fubara if he actually cares about President Tinubu’s interest.
While it was also argued that Wike should tread softly and not put unnecessary pressure on Fubara to quit the APC, because a known friend is better than an unknown enemy, an aide to Fubara said that their principal has come to stay in the APC and that those in his camp believe that nothing can stop him from contesting the primaries if there is no consensus.
He said, “Governor Fubara can no longer defect to any other political party, having obtained a nomination form from the APC, because one can only buy a nomination form once, according to the amended Electoral Act.”
The aide further hinted that, “What people don’t understand is that Governor Fubara had already settled with President Tinubu and Wike before he took the nomination form to contest. If not, he would have by now gone to another party where he would be honoured and obtain an automatic ticket without going through the rigours of a primary,” he argued.