Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.31 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, representing a 10.7 percent drop from 1.45 million bpd in January, according to the latest data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The decline comes amid soaring global oil prices, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude briefly surpassed $100 per barrel on March 9, the highest since July 2022, before easing to around $87 the following day. Analysts warn that Nigeria’s production shortfall limits the country’s ability to fully benefit from higher international prices, even as domestic fuel costs continue to rise.
OPEC’s report shows that Nigeria fell short of its 1.5 million bpd production quota by roughly 190,000 bpd, although it retained its position as Africa’s top oil producer, narrowly ahead of Libya, which recorded 1.28 million bpd.
The organisation noted that its production figures were sourced directly from Nigerian authorities, while secondary sources estimated Nigeria’s output at 1.46 million bpd — a smaller decline of 0.68 percent from January. OPEC also reported that overall member-country crude production averaged 42.72 million bpd in February, up 445,000 bpd month-on-month.
On March 2, OPEC and its allies agreed to raise global oil production by 206,000 bpd starting April to cushion the market amid geopolitical instability caused by the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Industry experts say the drop in Nigerian output could significantly affect government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, making it harder for the country to leverage rising crude prices for fiscal stability. Persistent challenges such as pipeline sabotage, technical setbacks, and infrastructural deficits continue to hamper consistent production.
With the global oil market under pressure and domestic fuel costs rising, Nigeria’s ability to meet OPEC targets while maximising revenue from higher international prices remains a critical concern for policymakers.