…as shoot on sight policy empowers the troops
By Adebayo Obajemu
The recent military successes in the Northwest, Northeast, and North central have largely degraded bandits and terrorist capacity to continue to wreck major havoc in the North. Though the situation, according to some analysts, is still fluid and yet to fully stabilize, a lot of progress has been recorded.
BH findings revealed that the continuing sustained offensives, coordinated airstrikes in Borno , Zamfara, Sokoto , Plateau, Kaduna and Benue and the surrender of insurgent commanders have significantly disrupted militant networks, which has affected their efficiency and ability to mount major attacks. But there are still pockets of retaliatory strikes by armed groups.
Generally, two factors may be responsible for this successes. Rainy and accompanying flooding usually demobilize the insurgents by making the movement difficult and settlements hostile and inhabitants. This happens every year.
However, the more recent and important factor is the change in operational policy of the army, which Defense Minister, Gen. Chris Musa, emphasized last week during the commissioning of a training centre in Sokoto: shoot every terrorist or bandit on sight and wait for no second order. Differences between the military and two key government figures, NAS, Nuhu Ribadu and minister of state for defense, Mattawale over this policy had immobilized the troops as order are often send countervailing standard policy.
The duo has insisted on negotiations, a stance that forced Gen. Musa and others to resign. But US President Trump, push President Tinubu to sack the former defense minister, Abubakar Badaru and recall Musa. Also improved intelligence from UD forces in Nigeria is contributory.
Dr. Aminu Jokolo, an historian, who has been following the activities of the insurgents in the North reported that bandits and armed groups are moving Southwards “due to ongoing counter-terrorism operations, which have significantly yielded localized gains.
He noted that troops operating in the Northeast and Northwest in recent weeks have continued to neutralize insurgent fighters, foil infiltration attempts on military bases, and dismantle terrorist logistical supply chains.
Change in Balance of Power
Another scholar Ahmed Mohammed, a political scientist told Business Hallmark that “there is significant shift in power balance, the insurgents and bandits are feeling the heat, though they are still operating, but their capacity for sustained action has reduced. You can see that combined military and intelligence operations have successfully rescued hundreds of abducted civilians across various flashpoints, including recent missions in Borno and Oyo States.
He stated that “sustained military pressure and deteriorating conditions within insurgent camps have resulted in multiple high-level commanders and fighters of factions like ISWAP surrendering to authorities in areas, such as Gwoza and other flashpoints. Though I do not support deradicalization and the so-called rehabilitation of terrorists, the truth remains there’s enormous heat on them.”
According to him, despite these tactical victories, security still remains fluid. Insurgents continue to utilize difficult terrain to regroup and carry out targeted attacks on both military formations and rural communities. The military remains engaged in relentless operations to dominate the battlespace and consolidate these gains into long-term regional stability.
Only recently, Nigerian soldiers reportedly killed more than 300 members of kidnapping and cattle bandit gangs in the north-western state of Zamfara two weeks ago, according to a government official.
Government troops targeted the gangs in Gummi district in a two-day operation that “led to the elimination of more than 300 terrorists”, Zamfara’s information commissioner, Mahmud Muhammad Dantawasa, said in a statement.
The government has killed hordes of Boko Haram and ISWAP and Ansaru jihadists in recent months in partnership with the US, which has deployed hundreds of troops to the country to support its fight against Islamists. Though the US troops have reportedly been withdrawn.
A joint US-Nigeria operation in May killed the second-in-command of Islamic State and about 200 fighters in a village in north-east Nigeria.
Growing Offensive
Only last week, the Army said troops of the Joint Task Force North West, Operation FANSAN YAMMA, neutralised several terrorists and disrupted attempted bandit movements during intelligence-led air operations in parts of Niger and Kaduna states.
In a statement, the Army said the operations, carried out by the Air Component on June 29, dealt a major blow to terrorists and armed bandits by targeting their movements within the Joint Operations Area.
According to the statement, the operation in the Dogon Dawa axis of Shiroro Local Government Area of Niger State followed credible intelligence, corroborated by human intelligence sources, indicating the convergence of more than 200 suspected terrorists on motorcycles.
The Army said aerial surveillance confirmed the presence of armed terrorists moving in groups before a large concentration of motorcycles was identified at a suspected refuelling point.
The North is gradually returning to uneasy calm while the South is gradually becoming a centre of insecurity.
Lately, security and intelligence officials have raised the alarm over the southward migration of terrorists fleeing sustained military clearance operations in the northern states of Zamfara and Sokoto and other Northern parts.
According to multiple security sources, including intelligence operatives and a retired military officer, who claimed anonymity, the displaced insurgents are abandoning their traditional strongholds and exploiting vast, interconnected forest networks and river routes to infiltrate the South-East, South-South, and South-West regions.
The fleeing fighters are reportedly moving through Niger and Kogi states before crossing into Anambra, with some continuing their movement deeper into Abia and Imo states. Others are navigating further west.
“These terrorists started moving from Zamfara through forests and remote routes and may have ended up in states, such as Imo and Abia. Some are even believed to be in Ogun State,” a senior security source told Business Hallmark.
Movement Southward.
A retired Army General described Kogi State as a critical transit and coordination epicenter for the fleeing groups, citing its central geographic location and access to multiple forest routes leading into southern Nigeria.
“Kogi serves as a major intersection point. From there, they can connect to routes leading to the South-East, South-West, and South-South through forests and river channels,” the retired General explained.
Business Hallmark learnt that some terror groups have already established operational bases within the forested areas linking Kogi to parts of Ekiti, Ondo, and Edo states. These bases provide them with covert staging grounds to push deeper into southern territories.
Security experts have identified several dense forest belts that are highly susceptible to infiltration due to their difficult terrain and limited accessibility for conventional security forces.
Among the primary areas of concern are the dense corridors between Anambra and Imo states, specifically the Owerre-Ezukala, Ogbunike, Awka, and Orlu axes. Security agencies are reportedly intensifying intelligence gathering to monitor these blind spots and intercept the fleeing elements before they can establish permanent enclaves in the South.
In response to the spillover, southern states are taking localized action by deploying local hunters, traditional security networks (such as Amotekun), and increased drone surveillance to secure deep forest belts.