Politics
Experts blame President Tinubu for diplomatic stumble in Niger Republic
Nigeria and ECOWAS led President Bola Tinubu, last week ate the humble pie by opening the shut land borders and restoring power supply, which was cut following the coup in Niger Republic last year.
Last month, former head of state and a founding father of the sub regional body, Gen. Yakubu Gowon, had written an open letter to President Tinubu criticising the handling of the diplomatic crisis, which threatened the unity of the body, as three of the members under military rule, Mail, Burkina Faso, and Niger announced their formation of a federation.
Many had thought that President Tinubu had come prepared for the presidency, but the Niger affair has given a different view and perspective of whether Tinubu had actually prepared himself for the office he had been nibbling at for close to three decades.
The apparent cul de sac, which the Nigerian government has thrust itself with regards to the exit from ECOWAS by Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, could have been avoided had President Tinubu heeded the advice of foreign affairs and diplomatic cables from some of Nigeria’s Missions abroad.
Sources knowledgeable about the matter told Business Hallmark that a lot of factors consternated together to allow the hawks around Tinubu to goad him into taking hasty decisions in the direction of war with Niger, the principal aim of which was to project Tinubu as a strong statesman, iron-willed ” democrat” in defence of democracy in West Africa and constitutional order.
That way, he could quickly crystalize himself as the new strong man, who could shape the sub regional body in his own image, and in the process, garner as much international respect and gravitas as Olusegun Obasanjo, and as new friend of the West.
The hawks, according to our sources, had reasoned that a battle cry against the junta in Niger, was indirectly a defence of the France and the United States’ interests in the Sahel, and this could pave way for Tinubu to get as much concession from the West as possible in the war against insurgency, thus hitting the battle drum and thus rattling the sabre was a sine qua non.
The Nigeria’s charge d’ affairs’ in Niamey advice against military action in favour of negotiations and diplomacy was ruthlessly ignored, but unfortunately for the Tinubu administration, that sound advice ricochetted with informed opinions of foreign policy experts in Nigeria, the position of northern intelligentsia and the political elites from that part of the country, who felt that they stood to bear the brunt of hasty action.
The argument of the hawks- who are said to be mainly influential and prominent media figures with no expertise in the intricacies and conclaves of foreign policy and international relations – was to ingratiate Tinubu into acceptance by Western powers, who believed his ascendancy into presidency was tainted.
Tinubu’s naivety in foreign policy options and international relations was highlighted all the more by the fact that as at the time ECOWAS was preparing to use military option to restore constitutional order in Niger following the President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger deposition on 26 July, 2023 in a coup led by his presidential guards, all Nigerian ambassadors had been recalled home, leaving a lacuna for inexperienced “experts” to goad Tinubu into war, as Nigerian diplomatic missions were not active.
The Foreign Affairs Minister, Yusuf Tuggar, who before his appointment was Nigeria’s ambassador to Germany did not really put his boots on the ground, thus allowing war hawks to carry the day .
In the absence of ambassadors, who could interface with coup leaders in Niger, there was only charge d’ affairs. But as one expert, and professor of international relations, Adeagbo Moritiwon put it, “In my experience outside Nigeria, charge d‘affairs, at state functions, are arranged after ambassadors. They are outranked by ambassadors. So, a country without ambassadors cannot engage in serious diplomacy. My worry is that things are not about to change quickly because the process of having ambassadors in place can be quite slow. In case of Niger, the charge ‘d affairs had no muscle to interface with the coup plotters on behalf of Nigeria, eventually Tinubu listened to neophytes around him, who were not even experts on foreign affairs.”
Prominent Nigerians and groups had cautioned Tinubu not to lead the ECOWAS to take military action against coupists in the Republic of Niger.
ECOWAS, which had the backing of the western countries and United Nations, in the wake of the crisis had issued a seven-day ultimatum to the military junta to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum as democratically elected president or face a range of stiff sanctions. The junta refused to budge.
Those who spoke on the stalemate in Niger included members of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF); former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; legal luminary Femi Falana; ex- naval chief, Suleiman Sa’idu (retd); former Emir of Gwandu, Alhaji Almustapha Haruna Jokolo; former Wazirin Katsina, Sani Abubakar Lugga, and prominent columnist and former presidential spokesman, Segun Adeniyi.
They said the best way to go was to use diplomacy, and when it failed, deployed serious sanctions that would compel the coup plotters to rethink and go back to the barracks for democratic authorities to return.
They also emphasised the humanitarian crises that would come with military action, especially for millions of people in northern Nigeria, who have strong affinity, social and economic ties with Niger.
Nigeria shares elaborate borders with Niger in many states, including Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno.
In some border communities, it is very difficult to identify the artificial boundaries as residents from the countries mingle together day and night, transact businesses using the currencies of the two countries with some having their wives and children on both sides of the divide.
Currently, there are over 300,000 Nigerian refugees who were forced to flee to Niger by Boko Haram terrorists and bandits; with pundits saying once war breaks out in Niger, all of them would have to return even as Nigeriens would also push their way into Nigeria.
In the face of the military threat, the military junta in Niger had sought Russia’s help.
The transitional leaders of Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso were also backing the military authorities in Niamey against ECOWAS, as they formed an alliance to defend each other in the face of external aggression.
Any military intervention against Niger “would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali,” they threatened in their joint statement to counter ECOWAS’ threat.
They added that such a move could result in “disastrous consequences” that “could destabilise the entire region”.
On his part, Prof. Babafemi Badejo, a former Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Somalia, warned that Nigeria should do costs and benefits analysis for the short, medium, and long-term, especially under the current financial problems Nigeria is facing before venturing into any war.
“Given the refusal to reimburse Nigeria’s efforts in Sierra Leone and Liberia in the past, is Nigeria able to fund a possible war with the Niger Republic as others in ECOWAS cajole her to lead, and as usual carry most, if not all of the yoke?
“How will the ECOWAS leadership close Niger’s borders with Mali and Burkina Faso – countries with sympathetic military regimes to those in power in Niger and the possible availability of counter air power instruments?
“Has Nigeria pondered on a perceived weak Niger Republic entering into a wider alliance(s), including with other stronger governments, organised and unorganised terror franchises?
Badejo, therefore, posited that preventing coups in West Africa is not by sanctions and threats but by addressing leadership deficit and corruption, curtailing negative external pressures, as well as the building of credible institutions to provide for the needs of the people.
The consternation of opinions and the reality of the futility of long drawn military campaign between ECOWAS and the alliance of the juntas of the three countries hobbled Tinubu and subregional leaders to shelve the idea of using force, and they eventually came hard on the junta with stiff sanctions.
In the statement, Niger junta spokesperson Colonel Amadou Abdramane said that ECOWAS “notably failed to assist these states in their existential fight against terrorism and insecurity.”
The trilateral decision of the countries to withdraw from the organization delivered a blow to its regional integration efforts, creating uncertainty on how this exit will impact the bloc, where goods and citizens move freely.
The three countries are also members of the eight-nation West African Monetary and Economic Union, UEMOA, that uses the West African CFA franc pegged to the euro.
Professor Aliyu Abdullah said ” Niger is the first diplomatic faux pas for Tinubu’s administration; when it comes to international relations, you must make wide consultation with experts, you don’t allow a motley crowds around you to decide on such intricate issues like that.”
Moritiwon agreed , saying that “what is the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs for, but to give quality advice in conjunction with Foreign Affairs ministry. This is a lesson for Tinubu’s administration.”
