As Nigeria’s ruling party barrels toward the 2027 general elections, the senatorial primaries of the All Progressives Congress (APC) have exposed a familiar but increasingly dangerous fault line within the party: the struggle between power consolidation and internal democracy.
Across the country on Monday, the APC’s primaries produced dramatic victories, bitter protests, allegations of manipulation, surprise withdrawals, consensus impositions, and open threats of rebellion from aggrieved party figures. What was expected to be a routine internal exercise instead evolved into a revealing test of the APC’s cohesion ahead of what could become its most politically complex electoral cycle since taking power in 2015.
From Kogi to Delta, Ogun to Rivers, and Kwara to Edo, the primaries demonstrated how deeply the contest for Senate tickets has become intertwined with succession calculations, governor-led political dominance, and the broader battle for influence within the ruling party ahead of President Bola Tinubu’s expected re-election bid.
At the heart of the unfolding turbulence is a growing perception among party members that the APC leadership, both at national and state levels, is increasingly prioritising elite agreements and consensus arrangements over competitive internal contests. While party leaders insist such arrangements are necessary to preserve unity and avoid destructive conflicts, critics argue they are steadily eroding confidence in the party’s democratic processes.
Nowhere was the tension more visible than in Kogi State, where the senatorial primaries quickly degenerated into accusations of manipulation and betrayal.
In Kogi East, incumbent Senator Jibrin Isah, popularly known as Echocho, openly rejected the process, insisting that no credible election took place in several wards. In a viral outburst that immediately captured national attention, the senator accused party officials of arriving with pre-written results allegedly prepared at the Government House.
“That result is a nullity,” he declared angrily, threatening to confront Governor Ahmed Ododo directly in the 2027 governorship race if the outcome was allowed to stand.
His threat underscored the widening cracks within the Kogi APC, particularly among politicians who believe the state’s power structure remains heavily influenced by former governor Yahaya Bello despite the emergence of Ododo as governor.
Ironically, Bello himself emerged as one of the biggest winners of the primaries, staging a powerful political comeback by clinching the APC senatorial ticket for Kogi Central in a landslide victory. His triumph reinforced speculation that the former governor remains one of the dominant political figures not only in Kogi politics but within the APC’s broader northern power architecture.
Yet even Bello’s victory could not shield the exercise from controversy. Another aspirant in Kogi West, Ustaz Abubakar Ola, alleged voter intimidation and disruption by thugs, adding to concerns that internal contests within the APC are becoming increasingly militarised and factionalised.
Beyond Kogi, the primaries revealed a nationwide pattern: governors and entrenched party leaders tightening control over candidate selection processes while dissenting voices struggled to resist political marginalisation.
In Imo State, Governor Hope Uzodimma secured a resounding victory over former governor Rochas Okorocha in the Imo West senatorial contest. Uzodimma’s overwhelming win symbolised more than a personal triumph; it marked the further weakening of Okorocha’s once-formidable political structure in the state.
Similarly, in Delta State, another major political realignment unfolded as former governor Ifeanyi Okowa defeated incumbent Senator Ned Nwoko in Delta North, while Senator Ede Dafinone trounced former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege in Delta Central.
The Delta contests highlighted the shifting balance of power within the APC following recent defections and alliances. Okowa’s victory, in particular, illustrated how rapidly former political adversaries can become dominant forces within the ruling party once aligned with prevailing national interests.
But even where winners emerged decisively, the legitimacy of the processes remained under attack.
Omo-Agege flatly rejected the Delta Central result and declared himself winner based on what he described as widespread support across the district’s 85 wards. In Edo South, the situation descended into outright confusion after rival factions announced different winners for the same primary election.
Such competing declarations have revived fears of prolonged litigation and parallel structures – crises that have historically weakened the APC in several states during previous election cycles.
The growing friction has also exposed the difficult balancing act confronting the APC national leadership.
On one hand, the party appears determined to avoid bruising internal battles capable of undermining President Tinubu’s broader re-election calculations. On the other hand, the widespread imposition of consensus candidates and controversial disqualifications risks alienating powerful political actors whose influence could become critical in 2027.
Indeed, one of the most explosive dimensions of the primaries was the controversy surrounding the disqualification of 44 aspirants by the APC screening committee.
The affected figures included serving senators, former lawmakers, influential businessmen, and political heavyweights from states such as Rivers, Oyo, Bayelsa, Plateau, and Cross River. In many cases, the party offered little or no explanation for the decisions, fueling suspicions that the screening exercise was used as a political tool to eliminate inconvenient contenders.
The confusion deepened when the APC released conflicting versions of the disqualification list, first naming 47 aspirants before reducing the number to 44 without clarification. The unexplained removal of former senator Ben Murray-Bruce’s name from the updated list only intensified accusations of opacity and manipulation.
For many party members, the episode reinforced a long-standing complaint that the APC’s internal processes increasingly operate through selective enforcement, elite bargaining, and opaque decision-making.
In Rivers State, the backlash was especially fierce.
Senator Ipalibo Banigo-Harry openly protested her exclusion from the primaries, describing it as an injustice against women and experienced legislators. Her appeal directly to President Tinubu reflected a growing tendency among aggrieved aspirants to bypass state party structures and seek intervention from the presidency itself.
Her protest also highlighted another emerging concern within the APC: the declining representation of women in elective politics despite repeated public commitments to inclusiveness.
Yet while some states descended into protests and accusations, others embraced carefully negotiated consensus arrangements designed to suppress internal conflict before it erupted.
In Borno State, the APC quietly adopted consensus candidacies for all three incumbent senators, including Ali Ndume, after consultations among party elders and stakeholders. Similar arrangements unfolded in Yobe, Kebbi, Lagos, and parts of Ebonyi State.
Supporters of the consensus model argue that it prevents unnecessary fragmentation and protects party unity ahead of national elections. But critics contend that such arrangements merely disguise elite control and deny ordinary party members genuine participation in candidate selection.
The situation in Kwara State illustrated how fragile even those consensus agreements have become.
What initially appeared to be a straightforward endorsement of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq for the Kwara Central senatorial ticket suddenly spiralled into confusion after reports emerged that Senator Saliu Mustapha had also secured clearance to contest.
The abrupt reversal by the governor’s media aides exposed apparent divisions within the APC hierarchy itself, suggesting that even carefully choreographed political arrangements can quickly unravel under competing interests.
In Ogun State, the absence of former governors Gbenga Daniel and Ibikunle Amosun from the primaries further revealed the delicate tensions between old and new power blocs within the party.
While Governor Dapo Abiodun presented the exercise as peaceful and democratic, Amosun’s allies quietly complained that he had been excluded from consultations over consensus arrangements. Daniel’s camp, meanwhile, framed his withdrawal as a deliberate attempt to avoid violence.
Together, the developments reflected the increasingly transactional nature of APC politics, where strategic withdrawals and negotiated exits have become essential tools for preserving temporary peace within the party.
But perhaps the most consequential implication of the primaries lies beyond the immediate disputes themselves.
For the APC, the danger is not merely that some aspirants lost tickets. Rather, it is the cumulative resentment building among displaced political actors who may ultimately conclude that their ambitions can no longer survive within the party’s existing power structure.
Already, there are growing fears within APC circles that unresolved grievances could trigger defections, sabotage, anti-party activities, or prolonged court battles capable of weakening the party in strategic states.
The concern is particularly acute because many of the aggrieved figures are not fringe politicians. They include sitting senators, former governors, influential financiers, and long-serving party loyalists with established grassroots networks.
Political observers note that Nigerian parties historically struggle most not against opposition parties, but against internal rebellions triggered by disputed primaries. The APC itself benefited enormously from such crises within the Peoples Democratic Party ahead of the 2015 elections.
Today, however, the ruling party risks confronting similar vulnerabilities within its own ranks.
Still, despite the protests and fractures, the APC leadership appears convinced that maintaining elite consensus around President Tinubu’s 2027 ambitions remains the overriding priority.
The primaries revealed a broader strategy already taking shape across the ruling party: minimise internal warfare, consolidate governor-led structures, neutralise dissent where necessary, and position politically reliable loyalists for the next electoral cycle.
Whether that strategy ultimately strengthens or weakens the APC may depend on how effectively the party manages the growing dissatisfaction now spreading across its ranks.