– But only Tinubu will decide
Bauchi state governorship election by all indications may turn out to be one of the most interesting and fiercest political battles come 2027.
The reasons are obvious: the calibre and number of political heavyweights interested in succeeding Senator Bala Mohammed as governor of the state.
The contest is basically an intra party one within the opposition All Progressives Congress, as the People’s Democratic Party under whose banner the current governor Bala Mohammed came to power- is politically dead and irrelevant. Mohammed himself is seeking political future under another party yet to be decided, but indications are pointing to APC.
The Bauchi APC guber aspirants are yet to reach consensus as to who will fly the party’s flag next year.
The stalemate persists
The state, according to findings, is filled with what many described as “APC heavyweights” who have indicated strong intention to slug it out with other aspirants for the governorship ticket even before Tuggar tendered his resignation from the federal cabinet. Besides Tuggar, other governorship aspirants are a former NNPC top official, Bala Wunti, who had already boldly declared his interest under the APC banner and has even reportedly planted screaming posters in the state capital, and Senator Umar Shehu Buba, who is believed to have done so much for the APC by way of finance in the state and is said to have immense grassroots support, even though he does not have active support from Abuja.
Other heavyweights interested in the race are Professor Muhammad Ali Pate, Coordination minister of health, Rt. Hon Abubakar Suleiman, Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar; Senator Shehu Umar Buba; Senators Abdul Ahmed Ningi, Haliru Dauda Jika; Hon. Farouk Mustapha, Hon. Usman Adamu Sufee, Hon. Yakubu Adamu, and Deputy Governor Muhammad Auwal Jatau (PDP).
Others include Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar (rtd), Dr. Bala Maijama’a Wunti, Senator Nazif Sulaiman Ganawa, Rt. Hon. Sadiq Baba Abubakar, and Capt. Bala Jibrin, many of whom are aligned with the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Apart from the aspirants under the opposition APC platform, the 2023 governorship candidate of the APC, Air Marshal Sadiq Abubakar, has now defected to ADC with a view to realizing his guber ambition. That may have proved a misjudgement given the challenges the new party is facing. In the same vein, Senator Dauda Halim Jika is also making spirited efforts to advance his ambition through the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
What has further complicated the political situation in Bauchi, aside the ambition of the former foreign affairs minister, is that the incumbent governor, Senator Bala Mohammed, is said to be in a dilemma of sort as to who to support and in which party to do so in order to produce a successor. Findings showed that the governor is yet to decide which party to use to advance even his own senatorial ambition, having fallen out with the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, who now controls the levers of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), through which he won election twice as Bauchi governor in 2015 and 2023.
Sources said with the uncertainty over the party platform he would use to actualise his next political move, it would be difficult for the incumbent governor to decisively influence the governorship race in his state.
Nowhere to Go
Having decided to exit PDP, Bala Mohammed is yet to land in ADC which he initially proposed before the INEC ban, or APC after meeting with top leaders of both parties recently . He was expected to pitch tent with ADC two Thursdays ago, but the spanner in the work was the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s de-recognition of the Senator David Mark-led national exco and the Nafiu Gombe faction paused his move. Before APC leaders reportedly met with him in Bauchi, the governor said the ADC remained his preferred option. Regarding Tuggar, political observers in the state said it would be extremely difficult for the former minister to secure the ticket of the APC in Bauchi over claims that he is seen more as an outsider and an Abuja politician.
Population Factor
Findings also showed that Tuggar, who is from Bauchi North, may not be able to upstage any candidate produced by Bauchi South, which has been producing all the governors of the state since 1999 due to its large population. One of the sources in the state expressed concerns about Tuggar, saying the former minister may be popular in Abuja but does not enjoy grassroots support in Bauchi and the APC because he did not support the process through which the new state exco recently emerged.
Given the way the party controls everything, they may just gang up and decide through consensus who their governorship candidate will be, and he might not be able to challenge them. Apparently, he was absent when the new APC state exco was inaugurated last week, which does not seem to work in his favour. On the other hand, the source hinted that Senator Umar Shehu Buba, who comes from Bauchi South, does not seem to enjoy the support of the Presidency but is blessed with enormous grassroots support capable of catapulting him to Government House if all goes well.
This is even as indications have emerged that the Minister of Health and Social Welfare Prof. Muhammad Ali Pate may not have given up on his gubernatorial ambition as he controls the recently inaugurated structure of the party in the state. Sources say he enjoys subtle backing of Abuja.
Observers of Bauchi politics note that the race to succeed Governor Bala Mohammed is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the state’s recent history. From seasoned technocrats and career politicians to political converts and first-time aspirants, the field is both crowded and complex.
Here is how they stand
Ali Pate: Technocrat with Abuja Backing
Professor Ali Pate, Nigeria’s Minister of Health, is not a featherweight in Bauchi’s governorship calculations. A technocrat-turned-politician, Pate has long desired to govern the state. Observers say that his perceived distance from grassroots politics could work against him, as he is seen to be too elitist and distant, though supporters point to his proximity to federal power and international exposure as assets that could strengthen the APC’s chances. Feeders from Abuja about him are said to be conflicting, with no clear indications where Asiwaju stands.
Shehu Buba: Legislative gravitas
Senator Shehu Umar Buba, representing Bauchi South,is said to wield significant influence within the APC in the state. A former caretaker chairman of Toro Local Government, his supporters are too quick to cite his political metamorphosis from local government chair to a formidable influence wielder at the Senate, while his political enemies question his capacity and preparedness for the administrative and political complexities of governing Bauchi State.
Abubakar Y. Suleiman: The silent influential legislator
Speaker of the Bauchi State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Abubakar Y. Suleiman, is often discussed in political circle as a potential ” Otedola”, a potential “dark horse.” He is popular on account of his suavity, calm disposition, grassroots popularity and loyalty to Governor Bala Mohammed, Suleiman has succeeded in operating in the shadows, cleverly shunning open ambition, often deferring his political future to divine will. His growing acceptability among lawmakers and traditional elites has not gone unnoticed. The Dan Galadiman Ningi and member, Ningi Emirate Council, Dan Iyan Ari and Madakin Uban Dawakin Bauchi, has not hidden his support to ensure that Governor Bala Mohammed finished strongly. He is an ardent advocate for justice, peace and commitment to the development of the state.
Farouk Mustapha: Grassroot mobilizer
Former House of Representatives member and Commissioner for Rural Development, Hon. Farouk Mustapha, remains a popular figure at the grassroots politician. Having defected from the APC to the PDP ahead of the 2023 elections where he served as Director-General of Governor Bala Mohammed’s campaign his political influence has fluctuated, though his loyal base remains intact. But the political misfortune that has bedevilled the PDP and his mentor – Bala Mohammed’s own shifting political future may not stand him in good stead to prosecute his ambition.
Sadique Abubakar: The comeback kid
Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar (rtd), former Chief of Air Staff and APC’s 2023 governorship candidate, remains a major political force. Despite losing narrowly and exhausting all legal channels up to the Supreme Court, his supporters argue that his discipline, national stature and administrative experience still resonate. Now linked with the ADC, many believe the political uncertainty of his new party will work against him
Haliru Jika: Serial contender
Senator Haliru Dauda Jika has traversed nearly every rung of elective politics in Bauchi from the State Assembly to the Senate. His 2023 governorship bid under the NNPP failed to gain traction, and analysts argue that he must recalibrate his political style and alliances to improve future prospects. His recent alignment with the ADC may offer a fresh platform.
Yakubu Adamu: Technocrat in troubled political ocean
Dr. Yakubu Adamu, the state’s Commissioner for Finance, is a banker-turned-politician whose emergence has generated debate. While some see his ambition as premature given limited political experience, others speculate that his proximity to power may yet shape his trajectory. For now, his acceptability among party heavyweights remains uncertain. Currently, he is facing allegation of money laundering involve N5.7billion.
Bala Wunti: Power, connection wealth, networks
Dr. Bala Maijama’a Wunti, a retired civil servant, is believed to be quietly laying the groundwork for a possible APC ticket. In recent weeks, he has become among the contender believed to have the capacity to clinch the ticket. Known for philanthropy and financial muscle, observers are divided on whether resources alone can compensate for limited grassroots structures across Bauchi’s 20 local government areas. He is said to be rapidly building his structure across the 20 local governments in the state.
Maitama Tuggar: Feelers of support from Abuja conflicting
Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, brings international experience and political pedigree. However, his strained relationship with the incumbent governor and relatively low grassroots visibility could complicate his quest for party dominance in Bauchi. Initially it was touted that Abuja was with him but it’s not clear how he stands in the eyes of Aso Rock.
Usman Sufee and Others: Testing the Waters
Usman Adamu Sufee, a former private-sector professional and serial party switcher, is viewed by many as a peripheral aspirant whose ultimate target may be a lesser office. Similar assessments trail a number of other aspirants whose ambitions remain fluid.
Sources say the major problem in Bauchi APC is the ambition of the governor to join the party. According to sources this move has thrown the party into disarray , exposing deep divisions within its ranks.