Nearly four out of every five Nigerians are either living in poverty or at risk of falling into it despite recent economic reforms, according to new assessments released by the World Bank.
The findings are contained in the World Bank’s newly approved Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Nigeria, covering 2026 to 2032, and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic, which examine the country’s economic and social conditions and outline strategies for reducing poverty and creating jobs.
According to the reports, about 79 per cent of Nigerians are either poor or vulnerable to poverty, while 61 per cent live below the poverty line and 33 per cent are classified as ultra-poor and unable to meet minimum food requirements.
The World Bank noted that although recent policy reforms have helped stabilise the economy and improve key macroeconomic indicators, the benefits have yet to significantly improve living standards for millions of Nigerians.
“Thirty-three per cent of its population is ultra-poor, 61 per cent is below the poverty line, and 79 per cent is near poor or vulnerable to falling back into poverty,” the report stated.
The institution estimated that about 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty levels particularly severe in northern parts of the country.
It also highlighted other development challenges, including limited access to electricity and inadequate job opportunities for the growing youth population.
According to the report, more than 86 million Nigerians lack access to electricity, while between three and four million young people enter the labour market annually in search of employment.
The World Bank acknowledged that reforms introduced by the Federal Government, including the removal of petrol subsidies, exchange-rate liberalisation, tighter monetary policy and tax reforms, have begun to improve economic fundamentals.
It noted that economic growth rose from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025, while foreign reserves exceeded $42 billion, fiscal deficits narrowed and investor confidence improved.
However, the institution warned that persistent inflation continues to erode household incomes and worsen hardship, especially among low-income families.
“High inflation, though declining, continues to erode real incomes, particularly for the poor. Social protection efforts to support the most vulnerable have been slow and uneven in their rollout,” the report said.
The Bank also identified structural weaknesses, poor policy coordination and concerns about budget transparency as obstacles to sustainable economic progress.
Under its new partnership framework, the World Bank said job creation would be central to reducing poverty, with a focus on labour-intensive sectors such as agriculture and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).
The strategy also seeks to address infrastructure gaps in electricity, digital connectivity, healthcare and education while expanding social protection programmes for vulnerable groups.
The institution stressed that reforms alone would not be enough to significantly reduce poverty unless they generate employment opportunities on a large scale.
It projected that approximately 60 million young Nigerians would enter the labour force over the next decade, making job creation one of the country’s most urgent development priorities.
The report noted that one in four Nigerian youths is currently neither employed, in education nor receiving training, while most workers remain trapped in low-paying informal jobs.
The World Bank also expressed concern about the country’s weak social safety net system, noting that public spending on social protection accounted for only 0.14 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021.
According to the report, only 8.5 per cent of poor Nigerians are covered by any form of social protection programme.
To address the challenge, the Bank plans to support efforts to build a more comprehensive and better-targeted social protection system, including expanding the national social registry, digital identity programmes and digital payment platforms.
The framework aims to increase social protection coverage to about 41 million beneficiaries over the implementation period.
Beyond employment and social welfare, the World Bank linked poverty reduction to improvements in education and healthcare.
The report revealed that 84 per cent of Nigerian children aged between five and 14 are unable to read age-appropriate texts, despite attending school, underscoring the country’s learning crisis.
It also highlighted childhood malnutrition and stunting as major contributors to intergenerational poverty and proposed increased investments in nutrition, early childhood development, sanitation and food security.
The World Bank reviewed the implementation of its previous Country Partnership Framework covering 2021 to 2025 and found that poverty worsened significantly during the period amid the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation, insecurity, fuel subsidy costs and exchange-rate distortions.
According to the review, Nigeria’s poverty rate rose from about 40 per cent in 2019 to 61 per cent in 2025, despite extensive support from the World Bank and other development partners.
The institution noted that while implementation of the previous framework was rated “moderately satisfactory,” inflation and economic pressures continued to deepen hardship across the country.
It disclosed that about 8.1 million households had received at least one payment under the national cash transfer programme designed to cushion the impact of economic reforms, while another World Bank-supported resilience programme reached more than 15 million Nigerians through social safety nets, livelihood support and business assistance.
The World Bank maintained that sustaining ongoing reforms, improving governance, encouraging private-sector investment and creating productive jobs would be crucial to lifting millions of Nigerians out of poverty in the coming years.
The institution recently approved a fresh $1.25 billion loan for Nigeria under its Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration Programme as part of its broader support package under the new Country Partnership Framework.
World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said the focus of the new framework would be on helping Nigeria convert recent macroeconomic gains into tangible improvements in living standards through private sector-led growth and job creation.
He said addressing structural constraints to investment and employment would be critical to ensuring that economic stabilisation translates into broad-based prosperity for Nigerians.