...as consensus arrangement sparks nationwide crisis
Barely eight months to the 2027 general election, a quiet but dangerous storm is gathering within Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), threatening to rupture the delicate alliances that have held the party together since it came to power in 2015.
From Lagos to Benue, Kano to Ogun, Yobe to Delta, Gombe to Zamfara, fierce internal battles over consensus candidacy, automatic tickets, zoning arrangements and gubernatorial succession plans are opening deep cracks within the party.
What initially appeared as a strategy to reduce the bitterness of primaries and preserve party unity is fast degenerating into widespread rebellion, accusations of imposition and factional warfare.
At the heart of the turmoil is the APC leadership’s increasing preference for consensus arrangements in the selection of candidates for the 2027 elections. While the party insists the approach is constitutional and recognised by the Electoral Act 2026, many aspirants see it as a sophisticated mechanism for powerful governors and political godfathers to impose loyalists and sideline rivals.
Widespread Consequences already
Even more troubling for the ruling party is the growing division among governors themselves, particularly over the leadership of Governor Hope Uzodimma of Imo State as chairman of the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF). Sources told Business Hallmark that the crisis stemmed from Uzodimma’s alleged mismanagement of funds contributed by the governors for Tinubu’s reelection campaign.
What once looked like a united governors’ bloc is now increasingly fractured into competing camps, with disagreements over succession politics, presidential influence, and control of party structures threatening to widen ahead of the elections.
For many observers, the unfolding drama is reminiscent of the internal crises that consumed the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) before its eventual loss of power in 2015.
The APC commenced the sale of expression of interest and nomination forms on April 28, with the exercise closing on May 6. Screening of aspirants is expected to run between May 7 and May 12, while the primaries are billed to hold between May 15 and May 23.
Already, tension is rising in many states. Though consensus candidacy is not new in Nigerian politics, President Bola Tinubu appears determined to institutionalise it nationwide, drawing inspiration from the political culture that sustained his dominance in Lagos for decades – a system many describe informally as “Baba Sope politics,” where the political leader effectively determines who gets what.
But while the model worked in Lagos under a tightly controlled political environment, replicating it across Nigeria’s vastly diverse political terrain is proving far more difficult. In many states, the attempt to enforce consensus is colliding with entrenched ambitions, regional rivalries, and local power blocs unwilling to surrender political space without a fight.
Money, ideology, and Politics
Nowhere is the tension more visible than in Delta State, where the battle for political supremacy is becoming increasingly combustible. In Delta North, the rivalry between Senator Ned Nwoko, a billionaire, and former governor Ifeanyi Okowa, a two term governor and former vice presidential candidates in the 2023 election facing EFCC charges for over a trillion naira allegedly missing from the state, has evolved beyond ordinary electoral competition into a broader struggle over Anioma identity and regional alignment.
Nwoko has intensified agitation for the creation of Anioma State and its transfer to the South-East geopolitical zone, arguing that such a move would correct what he considers a structural imbalance by giving the South-East six states like other geopolitical zones.
Okowa, however, insists that while he supports Anioma aspirations, the region should remain within the South-South. Behind the ideological arguments lies a fierce political contest. Okowa is believed to enjoy the backing of the Delta State political establishment, while Nwoko has cultivated a strong grassroots following and growing national relevance.
The same pattern is emerging in Delta Central, where incumbent Senator Ede Dafinone, and former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege are locked in an intense struggle for dominance.
While Dafinone reportedly enjoys the backing of the state APC structure, Omo-Agege remains a formidable political force in Urhobo land with an extensive political network built over years.
In broader context, the conflict has pitted original members of the party against new entrants from the PDP led by Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, the later are being accused of taking over the party. Chief Christopher Obiuwevbi, last week, quit the party, accusing its leadership of factionalisation, marginalisation and alleged hijack of its structure by new entrants.
Political analysts say the situation in Delta reflects a broader trend across the country; incumbent governors and state party structures are increasingly attempting to dictate candidacies, while displaced political heavyweights are resisting fiercely.
In Benue State, the internal war within the APC has become, perhaps, the most toxic. The long-running feud between Governor Hyacinth Alia and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, continues to deepen despite repeated interventions from President Tinubu and the national leadership of the party.9
What began as a struggle for control of party structures has now snowballed into open political hostility. A recent reconciliation meeting convened in Makurdi by Akume at the reported instance of Tinubu exposed rather than healed the divisions.
After the meeting, Akume announced that stakeholders had agreed on continuity arrangements, including automatic tickets for current office holders. But Governor Alia swiftly contradicted him, insisting there was no such agreement and that neither the President nor the APC national chairman had approved automatic tickets.
Deep party mistrust
Barrister Napoleon Otache, an APC chieftain in the state, described the crisis in alarming terms. “The political atmosphere in Benue State is hotter than the atmosphere in Iraq and Iran,” he said during an interview on ARISE News. “There has never been peace in Benue APC right from 2023 to date.”
Otache warned that unless the divisions are urgently resolved, the APC could face catastrophic electoral consequences in the state. “If the cracks are not mended before the 2027 election, the unimaginable may happen to the party,” he warned.
The Benue crisis has also exposed deeper questions about political authority and loyalty within the APC. While Akume remains one of the party’s most influential northern figures and a long-time political leader in Benue, Alia’s emergence as governor created a new power centre unwilling to operate under old political arrangements.
The result is a prolonged cold war threatening to split the party down the middle.
In Lagos, the situation is equally tense, but observers say it remain a storm in the tea cup as long Tinubu is president.
“Of course, many people are quietly unhappy with what is going in Lagos,” said Olagoke Lateef, a political observer. “But as long Tinubu is president, no opposition will make any headway. If he is defeated and another party takes over, that’s when Lagos will explode.”
However, although the APC machinery in the state remains firmly under Tinubu’s influence, cracks are beginning to emerge over succession politics and allegations of dynastic ambitions. Dr. Samuel Mawuyon Ajose, an APC governorship aspirant, openly rejected the party’s proposed consensus arrangement after submitting his nomination form.
Ajose specifically opposed the endorsement of Deputy Governor Kadri Hamzat by the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), insisting that no consensus arrangement can stand without the agreement of all aspirants.
The controversy has been compounded by growing rumours that some power brokers within the party are allegedly plotting to eventually position one of Tinubu’s sons as governor by compelling Hamzat to step down if elected. Though the claims remain speculative, they have fuelled anxiety within sections of the Lagos APC and revived longstanding concerns about excessive concentration of political power within a narrow circle.
In Ogun State, the struggle over consensus candidacy is already tearing at the fabric of the party. Governor Dapo Abiodun has aggressively pushed consensus arrangements across the state, urging aspirants to embrace zoning and compromise in the interest of party unity.
But the arrangement has generated serious resentment, especially in the senatorial contests. The battle for Ogun East has become particularly explosive.
Abiodun himself is seeking the senatorial ticket and was recently announced as the consensus candidate after a stakeholders’ meeting in Ijebu Ode.
However, former governor and incumbent senator, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, accused the governor’s camp of excluding him from the meeting. In a viral video, Daniel claimed he was denied access to the venue, where the consensus decision was reached. This a fundamental right issue scan scuttle the election.
Observers say the deteriorating relationship between both men stems largely from the fierce struggle for control of Ogun East politics ahead of 2027.
In Ogun West, tensions are equally rising as Deputy Governor Noimot Salako-Oyedele and several heavyweight aspirants battle over the senatorial ticket. Party insiders admit privately that the consensus arrangement is facing serious resistance.
“As far as the consensus arrangement is concerned, where we are having a bit of challenge is the senatorial race,” one party source admitted.
Another insider disclosed that frustration is mounting among party members over the perceived high-handedness of the governor and party leadership.
Crises of Consensus
In Yobe State, the endorsement of former Secretary to the State Government, Baba Malam Wali, as preferred successor to Governor Mai Mala Buni has triggered a fierce backlash.
Although, party leaders insist consensus remains the preferred option, several aspirants have rejected the arrangement outright.
Senator Ibrahim Bomai condemned the move in strong terms. “We categorically reject this attempt to subvert due process. We reject the culture of imposition. We reject any scheme that undermines fairness, equity, and the democratic rights of our people,” he declared.
Former presidential aide Musa Tumsah is also reportedly unhappy with the arrangement, while other aspirants, including Bashir Machina and former Inspector-General of Police, Usman Alkali, are preparing for direct primaries.
The crisis took another dimension when members of the Bolewa community publicly distanced themselves from claims that they endorsed Wali. Babakura Ba’aba, an elder of the community, described the purported endorsement, as misleading.
“We are a people, who value consultation, unity, and due process, and at no point was there a general meeting or agreement reached to support any particular candidate,” he said.
A Bolewa youth leader, Adamu Bah Dalati, also accused politicians of exploiting ethnic sentiments for personal gain.
“We stand for fairness, inclusiveness, and due process, and we will continue to resist any attempt to drag our community into unnecessary political controversy,” he stated.
Kano crisis takes a different form
Youth groups and party stakeholders are resisting attempts to hand the Kano Central Senatorial ticket to former governor Ibrahim Shekarau through consensus.
The Coalition for Better Kano argued that loyalty to the party should be rewarded instead of recycling political veterans at the expense of younger loyalists.
“We urge you not to allow your name or influence to be used in a manner that creates a sense of injustice against those, who kept the party’s light burning in your absence,” the group said in a statement directed at Shekarau.
Oyo State seems volatile
Though Senator Sharafadeen Alli appears to enjoy significant support from influential party leaders, several aspirants are insisting on direct primaries.
Among those resisting consensus are former Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu; legal practitioner Akeem Agbaje; historian Ayo Adesina; and former deputy governor, Rauf Olaniyan.
A senior APC source admitted that the party hierarchy is pushing strongly for consensus to avoid a destructive primary battle.
“Party executives, elders, and leaders, coupled with the directive from Abuja, have agreed on a consensus to present a strong and marketable candidate capable of reclaiming the Agodi Government House,” the source said.
Many aspirants remain unconvinced
The same tensions are spreading across Sokoto, Gombe, Kwara, Ondo, Plateau, Nasarawa and other states, where party leaders are struggling to balance consensus arrangements with growing demands for direct primaries.
In Gombe, former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Dr. Isa Ali Pantami, and his camp has vehemently rejected the decision of the Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya led APC leadership to announce businessman and politician, Jamilu Gwamna, as the party’s consensus governorship candidate.
The former minister has formally submitted his governorship nomination form to the national headquarters of the party in Abuja. Meanwhile, Anthony Yaro, the senator representing Gombe South has already resigned from the party in protest against the consensus.
In Nasarawa, however, the APC appears to have taken a different route after consensus efforts reportedly failed.
Governor Abdullahi Sule announced that the state would adopt direct primaries in the interest of fairness and transparency.
“We have very strong aspirants, most of whom have held top positions in this country,” Sule said.
“We are going to have a very transparent, very democratic process in line with the constitution of the party and the electoral act.”
For many party observers, Nasarawa’s approach may offer a glimpse of a more sustainable path for the APC.
Yet, across much of the country, the struggle for control continues to intensify, exposing dangerous fault lines within the ruling party as the countdown to 2027 accelerates.
Rift Among Governors
Beyond the battles over tickets and succession plans in the states, another layer of crisis is quietly unfolding within the APC itself – the growing division among governors over the leadership of the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF).
What once served as a stabilising platform for the ruling party is now increasingly becoming a battleground for competing political interests ahead of 2027.
At the centre of the tension is Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, whose leadership of the PGF has come under mounting criticism from some governors and party stakeholders. The controversy deepened recently following reports alleging moves to remove him over issues linked to leadership style and management of the forum, reports that the PGF later denied.
Yet, insiders insist the denial has done little to mask the underlying discontent within the governors’ camp.
Multiple sources within the party say governors are now split into rival blocs, with one camp believed to be pushing for tighter control of the party structure ahead of the primaries, while another fears that the growing concentration of power around a few influential figures could destabilise the APC before the general election.
A senior APC source familiar with the developments said the divisions among governors are already affecting negotiations in several states.
“What is happening is beyond ordinary disagreement. There are governors, who feel excluded from key decisions, and that resentment is gradually filtering down to the state chapters,” the source said.
Another party insider warned that the struggle for influence may become even more intense after the primaries.
“Everybody is trying to protect their political future. Governors want loyalists in the Senate, House of Representatives and state structures because 2027 is not just about elections; it is also about survival after office,” he said.
Other Interests
Analysts believe the situation reflects a broader crisis within the APC – the difficulty of balancing competing ambitions in a party that has expanded rapidly but remains ideologically fragile.
Unlike opposition parties that are largely united by the objective of unseating the ruling party, the APC is battling contradictions from within. In many states, the fiercest political contests are no longer between APC and opposition parties, but between rival APC factions struggling for dominance.
Political analyst Barr. Anthony Chidi said the danger for the ruling party is that unresolved grievances from the primaries could trigger defections and anti-party activities.
“Consensus works where there is trust and broad consultation. But where people feel excluded or imposed upon, it becomes a recipe for rebellion,” he said.
For now, the APC leadership continues to preach unity while insisting that disagreements will eventually be resolved internally.
But with tensions rising across multiple states, rival camps hardening their positions, and governors increasingly divided, the party faces, perhaps, its most difficult internal test since coming to power in 2015. With the new electoral Act stopping defections, observers say internal implosion is a possibility.
As the countdown to the 2027 elections intensifies, the ruling party may soon discover that the greatest threat to its dominance is not necessarily the opposition, but the widening cracks within its own walls.